Date: Friday, 5th May 2017
Chair: Sinéad McPhillips
Attendees
DAFM: Graham Neilan, Sinéad McPhillips, Wila Bruce, Grainne Roughan
CSO: Paul J Crowley, Cathal Doherty, Viacheslav Voronovich (CSO Agriculture); Stig Hellebust, Sean O’Connor (CSO Administrative Data Centre); Reamonn McKeever (CSO Environment); Anthony Dawson (CSO-Prices)
Teagasc: Trevor Donnellan, Brian Moran, Emma Dillon
EPA: Bernard Hyde
Bord Bia: Eoin Kelly
Apologies: Phillip O’Brien (EPA), Derry Dillon (Macra), Paul Smith (EPA), Kevin Hanrahan (Teagasc) Rowena Dwyer (IFA), Jane Brogan (EPA)
Sinéad McPhillips (DAFM) opened the meeting and welcomed the members to this year’s meeting. The minutes from the last meeting were adopted. Sinéad outlined the agenda for the meeting and it was adopted. She spoke about the effect that the ‘Brexit’ vote could have on the agri-food sector and the unique importance of the UK on the Irish food sector. Reliable statistics on agri-food are required and the annual meeting of the liaison group continues to be a vital mechanism to exchange views and highlight key issues. Sinéad finished by thanking Wila Bruce (DAFM) and Gerry Reilly (CSO) for their work on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between DAFM and the CSO which is due to be signed shortly.
Paul J Crowley (CSO) presented the developments at EU level, which involved updates on the new EU Framework Regulation on Integrated Farm Statistics (IFS) and the proposed Framework Regulation on Statistics on Agricultural Input and Output (SAIO). Currently more than 50 datasets are developed independently and transmitted to Eurostat based on different regulations and these new framework regulations will introduce greater coherence across the collected data.
IFS will require a core set of variables to be collected along with a range of modules on different thematic areas. All data under IFS will be transmitted to Eurostat as microdata. Many member states feel that there are too many modules and the proposed transmission deadlines are too tight. Another point of contention is that there is too much power delegated to the Commission, most member states want safeguard clauses which limit the Commission’s use of delegated powers. The Maltese Presidency is to prepare a compromise text before the next Council Working Party on Statistics (CWPS) and the aim is to have the regulation adopted in time for the 2020 Census as the current legal basis will have expired.
A first draft of the SAIO framework regulation will be presented at a meeting of the Directors’ Group on Agriculture Statistics (DGAS) in June. An initial exchange of views identified a number of issues of concern; burden/costs should be reduced, uncertainty about ad-hoc data, keeping time series and avoiding overlaps with IFS. The new Framework Regulation on Input and Output (SAIO) is expected to be in force by the year 2022. Agricultural Accounts have their own legal basis and will continue to do so but under a slightly reformed basis. In future all EU data requirements will be based on one of the three regulatory frameworks.
Sinéad McPhillips asked if CAP reform was the main driver in the agenda for change. Paul Crowley explained that DG-AGRI drive change and the objective is to put a mechanism in place to make it easier to collect new and emerging data needs. Sinéad also asked if there was any move on European statistics that focus on agri-food. Paul will make this particular point at the next meeting of the working group.
Cathal Doherty (CSO) gave a presentation on the domestic developments surrounding Agriculture Surveys. He explained how the Farm Structure Survey (FSS) is progressing and that approximately 37,000 farms responded to the survey, representing a response rate of over 70%. Administrative data continues to be utilised and Cathal stated that the data had arrived from DAFM allowing the process to operate efficiently. However, the CSO are still awaiting the arrival of some specific data sources such as organic farming and rural development measures. Cathal also mentioned the excellent work that Wila Bruce and Gerry Reilly undertook in developing the MOU.
Regulation (EC) No. 1165/2008 requires livestock estimates twice a year and the CSO have traditionally conducted June and December surveys. There is no future requirement for the December survey as administrative data can fulfil all regulatory demands. From 2017, the CSO plan to use data from the DAFM Sheep and Goat Census as the main source. Sinéad McPhillips was happy for DAFM and CSO to collaborate on the Census with a possible adjustment made for non-responding farmers. CSO by using the results of the DAFM Census will reduce respondent burden through the elimination of the CSO’s December Livestock Survey as in previous years there has been a duplication of effort between the two organisations.
Finally, Cathal indicated that from 2017 the CSO will be producing Supply Balance sheets for main cereals and oilseeds. Methods have been established to determine the supply balance for most headings. CSO would welcome any suggestions on potential methodology to determine entries for human consumption and industrial uses for the main cereals and oilseeds.
Wila Bruce (DAFM) outlined the ongoing work as part of the Department’s Economics and Planning Division (EPD) to update a direct payments modelling database from 2013. The Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) typology using Standard Output (SO) was applied to categorise farms into one of the six farm systems. This methodology was applied to BPS, LPIS, AIM, AMCS and sheep Census datasets from 2015. Using the data sources over 140,000 farms could be categorised into one of the six systems.
Results were presented which included the breakdown by farm system, age profile, BPS recipient age profile, age over time and a comparison of the FSS 2013 results. Wila stated that the Department’s work closely matched the results of the CSO’s FSS 2013.
The next steps for this work include the addition of other direct payments from both pillar 1 and pillar 2 and to use data to examine possible scenarios in the next round of CAP reform.
Stig Hellebust from the Administrative Data Centre in the CSO presented his work to date on a project aiming to determine farmer income using Administrative data. The challenge in determining who the farmers are was described. Using the previous Census of population close to 95,000 farmers were identified to be working on 140,000 farms (Census of agriculture 2010). However in the Census of population, over 180,000 people gave socio-economic status as farmer or farm labourer.
The project focused mainly on two data sources from revenue; the tax return form (form 11) and the employee level return by employers (P35L). Stig was able to link between these sources and produced results on levels of income for farmers. Statistics on income were presented over numerous characteristics and some interesting findings included similar average income across gender for those aged over 50. Stig finished by stating that for this work to progress the farm payment file at herd number level and with ppsn is important. Detailed small area statistics on farmers can be then produced. All of this work was purely for statistical purposes.
Sineád McPhillips thanked Stig and stated that the Department have more interest in overall farm household income and not just that of the farmer. In some cases, off farm or spousal income was significant. Stig indicated that the transfer from single incomes to a household income is not particularly difficult. Both DAFM and Teagasc are interested in a follow up from Stig’s work and Sineád explained that payment and ppsn data is available. CSO will continue to liaise with the Department on this work and a further update will be presented at the next Liaison meeting.
Anthony Dawson (CSO) presented an update on the developments of Agricultural Land Prices. Data available on the CSO statbank has been expanded to include more information at a regional level with additional indicators on volume, value and numbers of transactions. Numerous data sources are used; stamp duty return data is used to get X/Y coordinates for a parcel of land and furthermore it can be determined what the land parcel was when it was sold. Stamp duty data which includes non-agricultural transactions, any inheritance transfer, properties sold for under €100 and any transaction with monetary compensation attached to the land are excluded.
Agricultural prices are currently undergoing a rebase to base year 2015 so the present methodology is under review.
Using results from the National Farm Survey (NFS), Emma Dillon (Teagasc) presented information on fertiliser use in Ireland. This was a body of research carried out by Emma, David Wall, Brian Moran and John Lennon from Teagasc. The presentation started with the background and objectives of the NFS. Various aspects of fertiliser use are collected as part of the NFS; types and quantities of chemical fertiliser, livestock numbers, farm system and land use class. Hence, it was possible to examine the relationship between N, P and K usage across a wide range of factors.
By way of validating the results the NFS fertiliser use trends were graphed against DAFM fertiliser sales trends and there was little difference between the two sources. Factors that drive fertiliser use were described and various trends over time were illustrated including fertiliser price, weather and agricultural output prices.
Trends for N, P and K usage were compared between farming system for both gazing and silage. Fertiliser use was also examined for crops across the particular land-use class.
Emma finished the presentation with numerous conclusions including; 1) dairy farmers having highest stocking rates and highest fertiliser application rates for grazed grassland, 2) straight N and low (N)-P-K compounds dominate on grassland farms, 3) more high (N)-P-K compound fertilisers were used on tillage farms and 4) A key result is that increased lime, P & K fertiliser use required to halt soil fertility decline.
Sineád McPhillips asked Emma if the Agriculture environmental schemes can be broken down into similar farm types. Emma responded that this is possible and that more detailed breakdowns are presented in the full report published by Teagasc.
Trevor Donnellan (Teagasc) gave an update to the group on Brexit, based on work he and Kevin Hanrahan (Teagasc) have carried out. Trevor began the presentation by stating that the best outcome for Ireland is an outcome which keeps the UK as close to the Single Market as possible.
Brexit will leave a big hole in the EU budget, as the UK will no longer be a contributor, which could affect CAP if other member states have to then pay. The Agri-food trade in Ireland will not cease as the UK is too dependent on imports. However, Irish exports will face more competition in the UK and trade from Ireland could be impeded.
A Brexit static analysis on the short term impact of a 10% reduction to CAP was applied and examined across farm system. One conclusion was that the lowest earning systems would face the biggest proportional income reductions. A further conclusion from this analysis was that on average family farm income could be down by 26%.
Brexit may result in a reduction in Ireland’s access to the UK market and a reduction in the size of the EU and CAP budgets. It will also have negative implications for CAP support level, output prices and value at farm level. The impact of Brexit is unlikely to be shared equally across farm types with drystock farm incomes most vulnerable.
Sineád McPhillips thanked Trevor, adding that everyone is working on a Brexit response and that huge media coverage continues to focus on the worst possible scenario. Sineád added that a working group on trade data would be great. Eoin Kelly (Bord Bia) and Paul J Crowley (CSO) stated that trade data was available and that both groups would be interested in discussing and sharing ideas. CSO is to facilitate the establishment of a working group between the CSO, DAFM and Bord Bia.
Sineád McPhillips introduced the National Strategy for Women and Girls publication in particular action 1.39 to “Improve statistics and reporting on women’s involvement in the agric-food sector”. Sinead followed up by asking if it could be pushed more at EU level and that DG-AGRI have not taken much account. CSO agreed to follow up on this issue, internally and at EU level,
Sineád McPhillips thanked everyone for their participation in a very productive meeting.
The following are the action points arising from the meeting:
