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Preliminary GDP Estimate Quarter 1 2024

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2024

CSO statistical publication, , 11am
A CSO Frontier Series Output

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources.

Key Findings

  • Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has risen by an estimated 1.1% in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2024, when compared with Q4 2023.

  • The result was driven mainly by an increase in the Information & Communication sector in Q1 2024.

  • Using the early estimate for Q1 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter in 2023.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 April 2024) published its latest Preliminary GDP Estimate for Quarter 1 (Q1) 2024. This is a Frontier Series publication and care must be taken when interpreting these results as methodologies may change and data sources may be incomplete.

These preliminary results are subject to revisions in the Quarterly National Accounts, which will be published with results for Q1 2024 in early June when additional data sources are available to the CSO and will be further updated following the release of the Annual National Accounts for 2023.

Commenting on the release, Enda Behan, Statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said: “In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023. This was driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Information & Communication in Q1 2024. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter of 2023.

The preliminary GDP estimates are based on forecasting and data sources that are limited in scope when compared with those used for compiling GDP in the CSO’s Quarterly National Accounts. The data sources include information from the CSO Large Cases Unit, Retail Sales, Administrative Payroll Data, and other indicators of activity (See Background Notes for more details on these estimates and the methodology used to calculate the preliminary results).” 

Quarter-on-quarter percentage change

The preliminary GDP estimate shows a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023.

Qtr on Qtr
Q1 20202.4758325883
Q2 2020-5.412632895
Q3 202012.220784634
Q4 2020-4.151661938
Q1 20219.9192463942
Q2 20212.8935780352
Q3 20212.9484695214
Q4 2021-1.727340261
Q1 20224.8463687757
Q2 20222.7553298809
Q3 20222.9805854585
Q4 20220.1749720618
Q1 2023-3.360628275
Q2 2023-0.133927962
Q3 2023-2.500291567
Q4 2023-3.419111912
Q1 20241.0883223331

29/04/2024 - An earlier version of this release incorrectly reversed the labels for periods Q2 and Q3 2022 in Table 1 and Table 2.

Table 1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Seasonally Adjusted

Year-on-year percentage change

In Q1 2024, GDP is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% relative to Q1 2023.

Year on Year
Q1 20208.3448047774
Q2 20201.9789373028
Q3 202011.349108884
Q4 20204.6438009809
Q1 202112.763524135
Q2 202121.723856879
Q3 202112.381932109
Q4 202114.294399664
Q1 20228.784246785
Q2 20229.2951712208
Q3 20229.3668932258
Q4 202210.238017214
Q1 20232.7073516848
Q2 2023-0.334125105
Q3 2023-5.804116275
Q4 2023-8.670323743
Q1 2024-0.758915421
Table 2 Gross Domestic Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021) - Non-Seasonally Adjusted

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