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CSO statistical release, , 11am

Quarterly National Accounts

Quarter 3 2018

GDP and GNP (seasonally adjusted) at constant 2016 prices
Q3 2018
    Amount €mQuarterly % change
GDP78,4760.9
GNP63,1405.2

Quarterly increase of 0.9 per cent in Real GDP

Figure 1 Seasonally Adjusted growth rates(% change on previous quarter)
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On a seasonally adjusted basis, initial estimates indicate that GDP in volume terms increased by 0.9 per cent for the third quarter of 2018. Real GNP increased by 5.2 per cent over the same period.

Value added increases for all Industrial and Service sectors

Value added of Industry (excluding Construction) rose by 3.5 per cent in volume terms in Q3 2018 compared with the previous quarter. Manufacturing recorded a 4.1 per cent increase with Construction activities recording a 3.5 per cent increase, (see Table 5). Financial and Insurance activities increased by 2.9 per cent over the same period while Arts and Entertainment increased by 6.1 per cent.  Professional and Admin Services recorded a moderate increase of 1.4 per cent over the period while Public Administration, Education and Health recorded an increase of 1.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Distribution, Transport, Hotels and Restaurants increased by 1.1 per cent in real terms in the quarter while Information & Communication increased by 0.1 per cent. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing recorded a decline of 1.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Capital Investment, Personal Consumption increase, Net Exports decline

On the expenditure side of the accounts (see Table 7), Capital formation increased by 21.8 per cent in Q3 2018 compared with Q2 2018. Personal consumption, which accounted for 49 per cent of domestic demand in Q3 2018, increased by 1.0 per cent compared with the previous quarter. The combined effect of a 1.5 per cent increase in exports with an offsetting imports increase of 7.1 per cent was that overall net exports for the quarter decreased by €3.2 bn.  Government expenditure increased by 1.8 per cent in Q3 2018 compared with Q2 2018.

Total domestic demand (see Annex 2) increased by 7.3 per cent in Q3 2018 over Q2 2018. When combined with the €3.2 bn decrease in net exports the result was an overall increase in real GDP in Q3 2018 of 0.9 per cent. Factor Income outflows (see Table 5 or 7) in Q3 2018 (€16,029m) moderately increased compared with Q2 2018, with GNP exhibiting an overall increase of 5.2 per cent in the period. Modified Domestic Demand, an indicator of domestic demand that excludes the impact of trade in aircraft by aircraft leasing companies and trade in R&D and intellectual property (see Annex 4B), decreased by 0.6 per cent in Q3 2018 over Q2 2018.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the annual National Income and Expenditure. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.

Comparisons with Q3 2017

Initial estimates for the third quarter of 2018 indicate that there was an increase of 4.9 per cent in GDP in real terms in Q3 2018 compared with Q3 2017. Information & communication made the most positive contribution to the Q3 result, rising by 19.5 per cent with Construction recording an increase of 16.8 per cent. Increases were also recorded in Financial and Insurance activities (5.5 per cent), Distribution, Transport, Hotels and Restaurants (5.1 per cent), Public Administration, Education and Health (3.7 per cent), Professional, Admin and Support Services (3.4 per cent) and Industry (excluding Construction) (3.2 per cent), while Arts & Entertainment increased by 4.2 per cent compared with Q3 2017. Agriculture activities showed a decline of 13.5 per cent year-on-year.

On the expenditure side (see Table 3) there was a decrease in net exports of €1,110m during the quarter.  Capital investment exhibited a year-on-year increase of 43.4 per cent while personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.9 per cent in Q3 2018 compared with Q3 2017. Modified Domestic Demand decreased by 1.5 per cent in Q3 2018 compared with Q3 2017.

Factor income outflows were €1,864m higher than in the same quarter of 2017 resulting in an increase in GNP of 3.1 per cent year-on-year.