2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2020 | 2021 | ||
€ million | Annual Change (%) | |||||
Goods output | 7,956 | 8,367 | 9,472 | 5.2 | 13.2 | |
Intermediate consumption | 5,662 | 5,680 | 6,072 | 0.3 | 6.9 | |
Net subsidies | 1,730 | 1,741 | 1,654 | 0.7 | -5.0 | |
Operating surplus | 2,925 | 3,263 | 3,852 | 11.6 | 18.1 |
The CSO’s first estimate of agricultural operating surplus for 2021 is an expected growth of €588.9m (+18.1%) to €3,851.7m. The main outputs giving rise to this increase are milk and cattle.
While the volume of cattle production is expected to fall by 3.5%, with stronger prices, values are projected to rise by €229.5m (+10.0%). Despite a projected increase of 1.6% in volumes, the impact of lower prices on the value of pig production is a decrease of €36.8m (-6.1%). There is little expected change in the volume of sheep production (+0.1%) but with stronger prices, their value is forecast to grow by €58.7m (+19.3%) to €361.9m.
The value of horse production is also expected to recover significantly in 2021, with large price increases combined with a 2.1% rise in volumes resulting in the projected value of horses to increase by €41.1m (+19.0%). With minor price increases and volumes expanding by 3.4%, the value of poultry production is forecast to rise by €7.8m (+4.3%). Milk volumes are expected to increase by 6.2% in 2021 and with significant price increases, it is projected that the value of milk will rise by 22.7% to €3,376.6m.
The value of crops is expected to increase by €177.6m (+9.1%) to €2,120.5m in 2021, with volumes estimated to rise by 2.0%. Primarily due to improved yields, the volume of cereal production is expected to increase by 14.7%. These additional volumes combined with a strong growth in prices indicates that the value of cereals will grow by €132.3m (+45.7%) to €421.9m. Overall, the value of agricultural output at basic prices is expected to rise by €1,064.6m (+12.0%) to €9,972.9m.
As there is still relatively limited data available on input costs, particularly on volumes, intermediate consumption costs are projected to rise by €392.3m (+6.9%) to €6,072.2m. The volume of feeding stuffs consumed by Irish farmers is expected to increase by 7.2% and when these are combined with higher prices, it is estimated that their cost will rise by €260.4m (+17.1%) to €1,785.6m. With volumes expected to increase by 4.3% and prices also rising, the overall cost of fertilisers is forecast to grow by €58.7m (+11.0%) to €591.0m.
With the expected value of agricultural outputs up by €1,064.6m, intermediate consumption costs rising by €392.3m, the introduction of a two percent increase in the standard VAT rate in March 2021 and the flat rate farmers’ VAT compensation scheme increased by 0.2% to 5.6% for the year, the projected value of other subsidies less taxes on production is a decrease of €46.3m (-2.8%) to €1,600.2m. The value of net subsidies is expected to decrease from €1,741.1m to €1,653.6m, a decrease of €87.5m (-5.0%).
The figures for 2021 are advance estimates which are provisional and based on the latest available data. These figures are subject to change once the complete set of data for the full year becomes available. Updated figures for 2021 will be published in the Preliminary Estimate in March 2022, followed by the Final Estimate in June 2022. |
Table 1: Output, Input and Income in Agriculture, 2021 | Advance estimate | ||||
Estimated Value (at current prices) | |||||
Description | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Change 2021/2020 (%) | |
€m | Value | Volume | |||
Livestock (incl. stock changes) | 3,372.4 | 3,591.8 | 3,892.0 | 8.4 | -1.8 |
Cattle | 2,143.9 | 2,290.5 | 2,520.0 | 10.0 | -3.5 |
Pigs | 543.0 | 601.9 | 565.1 | -6.1 | 1.6 |
Sheep | 260.8 | 303.3 | 361.9 | 19.3 | 0.1 |
Horses | 255.5 | 216.1 | 257.2 | 19.0 | 2.1 |
Poultry | 169.2 | 180.0 | 187.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
Livestock products | 2,689.7 | 2,832.0 | 3,460.0 | 22.2 | 6.1 |
Milk | 2,608.6 | 2,752.7 | 3,376.6 | 22.7 | 6.2 |
Other livestock products | 81.1 | 79.2 | 83.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 |
Crops (incl. stock changes) | 1,893.6 | 1,942.9 | 2,120.5 | 9.1 | 2.0 |
Cereals1 | 327.2 | 289.5 | 421.9 | 45.7 | 14.7 |
Forage plants | 1,045.4 | 1,143.0 | 1,200.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
Other crops | 521.0 | 510.4 | 498.3 | -2.4 | -4.6 |
Goods output at producer prices | 7,955.7 | 8,366.7 | 9,472.5 | 13.2 | 1.5 |
Contract work | 461.2 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Subsidies less taxes on products | 99.5 | 94.6 | 53.4 | ||
Agricultural output at basic prices | 8,516.4 | 8,908.3 | 9,972.9 | 12.0 | 1.0 |
Intermediate consumption | 5,662.2 | 5,679.9 | 6,072.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 |
Feeding stuffs | 1,489.9 | 1,525.2 | 1,785.6 | 17.1 | 7.2 |
Fertilisers | 578.3 | 532.3 | 591.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 |
Energy and lubricants | 439.6 | 385.8 | 427.1 | 10.7 | 0.3 |
Forage plants | 1,039.9 | 1,140.2 | 1,197.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
Contract work | 461.2 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Other items of intermediate consumption | 1,653.3 | 1,649.4 | 1,623.9 | -0.2 | -1.2 |
Gross value added at basic prices | 2,854.2 | 3,228.4 | 3,900.6 | 20.8 | |
Fixed capital consumption | 973.1 | 994.6 | 994.6 | 0.0 | |
Net value added at basic prices | 1,881.1 | 2,233.8 | 2,906.0 | 30.1 | |
Other subsidies less taxes on production | 1,630.0 | 1,646.5 | 1,600.2 | -2.8 | |
Factor income | 3,511.1 | 3,880.2 | 4,506.2 | 16.1 | |
Compensation of employees | 586.2 | 617.5 | 654.5 | 6.0 | |
Operating surplus | 2,924.8 | 3,262.8 | 3,851.7 | 18.1 | |
Interest less FISIM | 18.3 | 34.0 | 61.5 | 81.1 | |
Land rental | 298.5 | 320.0 | 320.0 | 0.0 | |
Entrepreneurial income | 2,608.1 | 2,908.8 | 3,470.2 | 19.3 | |
1 Commercial sales of Wheat, Barley and Oats |
Three sets of estimates are prepared in each 12-month period. The first or Advance estimate is generally released in early December of the reference year. This is based on the data available at the time, which is not fully complete. The Advance estimate is updated in March of the following year when the Preliminary estimate is published. This incorporates all additional up-to-date information that has become available by that time. In June, the Final estimate of the agricultural accounts is prepared based on the complete set of data. The methodology used for producing accounts for agriculture is based on the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). For details of methodology and description of data sources please refer to the release's Methodology page.
This is the price received by the farmer for agricultural produce. It is sometimes referred to as the farm-gate or ex-farm price. It excludes VAT.
The basic price corresponds to the producer price plus any subsidies directly linked to a product minus any taxes on products. VAT is excluded.
This is the total output of goods produced and sold by the agricultural sector during the year valued at producer prices. It does not include the value of services provided, i.e. contract work.
Activities performed by agricultural contractors directly linked to the production of agricultural products (for example harvesting) are an integral part of agriculture. The value of such work is included both as an output and as intermediate consumption. Estimates of the input costs incurred by agricultural contractors in the provision of agricultural services are included under the appropriate intermediate consumption categories, as well as in the compensation of employees’ figure.
Subsidies and taxes on agricultural products are those paid or levied per unit of a good or service produced or exported. An example of subsidies on product is the Beef Data & Genomics Programme (BDGP). The Bovine Disease Eradication (BDE) levy is an example of a tax on products.
This is the sum of goods output at producer prices plus the value of services provided (contract work) plus subsidies less taxes on products.
This is the value of all goods and services used as inputs in the production process excluding fixed assets (capital goods), whose consumption is recorded as fixed capital consumption (depreciation). Intermediate consumption excludes the cost of acquiring new or existing fixed assets, e.g. tractors, agricultural machinery etc. They are recorded as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Intermediate consumption includes expenditure on contract work and forage plants, even if consumed within the same agricultural holding.
The production of forage plants is valued as part of output. Silage and hay are the main items in this category. Direct sales of cereals between farms and use of cereals within farms are also included under forage plants. These items are also treated as intermediate consumption with minor exceptions, such as sales of straw to racing stables.
Financial intermediaries (mainly banks) charge explicit commissions and fees for their services to customers, as well as implicit ones by paying and charging different rates of interest to borrowers and lenders. The revenue from the margin on lending and borrowing by financial intermediaries is described as Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM). The inclusion of FISIM in the table is in line with recommended EU national accounting conventions. It is a reallocation to intermediate consumption of part of the interest paid by farmers. While the inclusion of FISIM will increase intermediate consumption and decrease gross value added, it will decrease, by the same amount, the figure shown for interest paid.
This is the difference between the output at basic prices and intermediate consumption. It is a measure of gross income before depreciation, subsidies and taxes on production and compensation of employees.
This relates to the foreseeable wear and tear and obsolescence of fixed capital goods. It is calculated on the basis of the probable economic life of the asset. It is not calculated for breeding livestock or for non-produced assets such as land.
Net value added is calculated by subtracting expenditure on fixed capital consumption (depreciation) from gross value added.
Other subsidies on production are subsidies other than those on products. Examples are the Basic Payment Scheme, the Areas of Natural Constraints scheme and GLAS. Taxes on production consist of VAT over/under-compensation for farmers, who have opted for the flat rate VAT system, motor and machinery tax paid by farmers. Other subsidies less taxes on production are not included in the calculation of output but are included in the calculation of factor income and operating surplus.
Factor income is a sum of net value added plus other subsidies on production less taxes on production. It is sometimes referred to as 'value added at factor cost'.
This includes remuneration in cash and in kind. It does not include the remuneration of work undertaken by the farm owner or by non-salaried family members.
The operating surplus is calculated by subtracting compensation of employees from factor income. The figure is comprised of the operating surplus earned by farmers and that earned by agricultural contractors. It is an estimate of income before deductions for interest payments on borrowed capital, land annuities and rent paid by farmers to landowners for the use of their land.
Entrepreneurial income is comprised of operating surplus less interest payments on borrowed capital and land rental paid by farmers to landowners.
Net subsidies is the combined value of subsidies less taxes on products plus other subsidies less taxes on production.
For each category, the difference between closing year stocks and opening year stocks is valued at the average producer price for the year.
To calculate the volume indices all items of output and input are valued at constant base year prices, i.e. by applying base year prices to current year quantities. The volume index for 2020 may then be calculated by comparing the value in 2020 at average 2015 prices to the value in 2015 at average 2015 prices. Volume indices allow one to estimate the changes in production and expenditure, as if the prices did not change since the base year. This separates the effects of volume and price changes on output, input and income.
Any revisions to previous years’ estimates are only made as part of the production process for the Final estimate release. When preparing the final estimates for the current year’s release (year T), routine revisions are made to the final estimates for the two previous years also (i.e. years T-1 and T-2). These revisions to previously published final estimates tend to be minor. For further details on the revisions policy, please refer to the release's Quality Report.
Individual figures have been rounded independently and the sum of component items therefore may not necessarily add to the totals shown.
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