Population and Migration Estimates, April 2024

Coverage

The reference period for the population estimates is the end of April of each year. The migration flows are in respect of the twelve months to end April, while the births and deaths are for the 12 months ending Q1 of the reference year. The usually resident population classified by age, sex and NUTS 3 region for 2022 are taken from the Census of Population.

Usual residence population concept

For the purpose of this release the population concept of usual residence has been used, i.e. all people usually resident and present in the State on census night plus absent people who are usually resident in Ireland but are temporarily away from home and outside the State on census night. All people are classified according to their region of usual residence.  Up to and including 2005, the de facto population concept was used. It should be noted that those people from households that were fully temporarily absent outside the state on Census night are included in the 2022 data for the first time. As this group has not been included in the Population and Migration Estimates until 2022, the additivity of population change components has been impacted between 2021 and 2022.

Definitions

De facto population concept - The census figures relate to the de facto population i.e. the population recorded for each area represents the total of all people present within its boundaries on census night, together with all people who arrived in the area the following morning having not been enumerated elsewhere.  The figures, therefore, include visitors present on Census Night as well as those in residence, while usual residents temporarily absent from the area are excluded.

Natural Increase - the natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths recorded over a period.

Immigration - means the action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country.

Emigration - means the action by which a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months.

Net Migration - the difference between immigration into and emigration from the State during the reference period.

Principal source of Migration data 

The principal source of information for the estimation of the gross annual migration flows is the Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS), which also provides the basis for the classification of the flows by sex, age group, origin/destination and citizenship.

In the past, this release also provides estimates of immigration and emigration by educational attainment and principal economic status, based on responses in the LFS. However, there is now a significant number of immigrants living in communal establishments and therefore outside the scope of the LFS sampling frame which samples private households. For the purpose of the Population and Migration Estimates, this group of people are estimated using administrative data. Accurate estimation of educational attainment and principal economic status is difficult for this cohort and the methodologies are currently being investigated to allow the publication of these tables to continue.

Other sources of migration data

The migration estimates are compiled with reference to movements in other migration indicators such as the number of Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers allocated to non-Irish citizens. Typically between 60% - 70% of non-Irish citizens issued with a PPSN in a given year, remain active the year following issue.

Stocks of residence permits issued to 3rd country citizens are also examined for coherence purposes (see table below).  Note that while residence permits are generally required for those aged 15 years and over, the population stock of 3rd country citizens in the estimates applies to all ages.

The number of visas issued to Irish citizens to a number of destinations including Australia, USA and Canada are compared with the emigration data collected by the LFS.  In addition, data on National Insurance numbers (equivalent to PPS numbers) issued to Irish citizens in the UK is also examined.

Calculation of annual population estimates

The annual population estimates for April are calculated by trending forwards the previous Census of Population data. For example, the base population data for estimating the April 2023 figure was the number of males and females in each region by single year of age and citizenship as established by the 2022 Census. From this base, each person was aged by one year, births for the period were added and deaths were subtracted. The estimated number of immigrants was then added and the number of emigrants was subtracted. Allowance was also made for estimated inter-regional migration in arriving at the final 2023 figures.

The end result of this overall process provided the population estimate for April 2023 which in turn will provide the base population for the subsequent year and so on. The population estimates are subject to revision once the definitive results of the census become available.

The population by citizenship estimates are made possible by trending forwards the previous Census of Population and incorporating gross migration flows by citizenship based on responses in the LFS. Allowance is also made for the non-Irish citizens who acquire citizenship certificates over the period in question. The number of births by citizenship are estimated using the distribution of the citizenship of births as recorded in the 2022 Census, while deaths by citizenship are also estimated based on recent census results using the citizenship distribution of the population by five year age groups.

Internal migration

By examining a person's usual residence at the time of a census and one year previously it is possible to determine inter-regional migration patterns. Following the Census a new internal migration matrix was produced and used to measure inter-censal internal migration. Internal migration for the year to April 2023 takes account of the Census 2022 results. This internal migration pattern will be utilised going forward for the inter-censal period. 

Citizenship

The question on nationality in the most recent Census was changed to capture information on the country of citizenship. All people with Irish citizenship are classified under the category "Irish" in PXSTAT table PEA25 (Estimated population classified by sex and nationality).

The Irish Naturalization and Immigration Service provide annual data for people who acquire Irish citizenship. The availability of the citizenship data for year N is N+2 and so estimates for 2018 and subsequent years will be achieved by trending forward the rates noted for the most recent year available.  Therefore, for the purpose of the 2024 release the 2022 distribution of citizenship acquisitions was applied.

NUTS2 and NUTS3 Regions

The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) were created by Eurostat in order to define territorial units for the production of regional statistics across the European Union. In 2003 the NUTS classification was established within a legal framework (Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003).

As the administrative territorial breakdown of EU Member States is the basis of the NUTS classification, changes made under the 2014 Local Government Act prompted a revision to the Irish NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 Regions. These changes included the amalgamation of the local authorities of Tipperary North and South, Limerick City and County Councils and Waterford City and County Councils. In addition three Regional Assemblies were established (Northern & Western, Southern, Eastern & Midland).

The main changes at NUTS 3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East into the Mid-West NUTS 3 region and the movement of Louth from the Border to the Mid-East NUTS 3 Region. There are now three NUTS 2 Regions which correspond to the Regional Assemblies established in the 2014 Local Government Act and are groupings of the new NUTS 3 Regions. The revisions made to the NUTS boundaries have been given legal status under Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066. The new NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 structure and classification are displayed in the table below: