Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Monthly Services Index May 2020

Data for the Monthly Services Index (MSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 2,250 enterprises. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,600 enterprises. The Monthly
Services Value Index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector and covers services provided both to individual consumers and to other businesses.

Despite the current difficult circumstances, many enterprises have continued to supply us with this information and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support. The response rate for the May 2020 MSI was four percentage points lower than would normally be the case.

Imputation

The Monthly Services index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector a number of key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, an estimate is then derived for the month using trends shown by responding enterprises in the same sector and, in some cases, auxiliary data sources are used.

These auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for May 2020 at sectoral level. The CSO is satisfied that this full range of auxiliary information supports the trends estimated in the Monthly Services Index for May.

The auxiliary sources used included:

• Government communications on the list of essential services and outlets indicating when sectors shut down in March and remain closed
• Roadmap for Reopening Society and Business - Phase 1
• Published media and research reports on the services sector
• Websites of large services enterprises, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending on services in May compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs
• Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Wage Subsidy Scheme by sector.

Seasonal Adjustment

The figures for March, April and May are an exception to existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Services Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the COVID-19 impact on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models were reviewed in May 2020 and changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their turnover data for May and urge them to continue to do so for June and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still needed to measure the trends in the services sector. The CSO will also continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for services turnover in June. The June Monthly Services Index is planned for publication on 6th August.