Monthly Service Inquiry
Data for the Monthly Services Index (MSI) is collected each month from a sample of 2,250 enterprises. Information on the Retail and Motor Trade sectors is taken from the Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,600 enterprises. The Monthly Services Value Index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector and covers services provided by businesses both to individual consumers and to other businesses.
December 2020
On 1st December 2020 COVID-19 restrictions began to be eased, with the reopening of all non-essential retail shops, hair and beauty providers, gyms and leisure centres, cinemas, museums and galleries. Restaurants, cafés, gastropubs and hotel restaurants reopened three days later. As Ireland entered into the third wave of COVID-19, the Government agreed on 22nd December to move the entire country to Level 5 lockdown restrictions with a number of adjustments from Christmas Eve until 12th January 2021 at the earliest. On 30th December 2020, the Government agreed to move the entire country to full Level 5 lockdown restrictions from midnight until 31st January 2021 at the earliest.
December 2021
On 1st December 2021, the Omicron variant was detected in Ireland. On December 3rd some COVID-19 restrictions were re-imposed. These included the closure of nightclubs, bars and restaurants reverting to the rule of no more than six adults per table with no multiple table bookings allowed, indoor cultural and sporting events had to operate at 50% capacity, a maximum of four households allowed to meet indoors and the requirement of vaccination certificates was extended to gyms, leisure centres and hotel bars. Further COVID-19 restrictions were imposed on 20th December 2021 for the Christmas period, with an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants, live events, cinemas and theatres.
Response Rates
Despite difficult circumstances, many enterprises have continued to supply us with information on a monthly basis and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support. The response rate for the December 2021 MSI has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. The provisional index for each month is subject to revision in the following month as additional information from late respondents is obtained.
Imputation
The Monthly Services index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, an estimate is derived for the current month using trends shown by responding enterprises in the same sector and, in certain cases, using auxiliary data sources.
These auxiliary data sources were also used to validate the results for December 2021. The CSO is satisfied that this range of auxiliary information supports the trends shown in the Monthly Services Index for December.
The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:
Seasonal Adjustment
The patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Services Index will continue to be challenging until the scale and shape of the COVID-19 impact on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models are reviewed each month and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.
Thanking Respondents
The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their turnover data for December and urge them to continue to do so for January 2022 and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still needed to measure the trends in the services sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for services turnover in January. The January Monthly Services Index is planned for publication on 7th March.
CSO publication, 4 February 2022, 11am
Bríd Fitzpatrick (+353) 21 453 5162
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