Information note on the Implications of COVID-19 on the Retail Sales Index June 2021

Retail Sales Index

Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with information each month and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support.

COVID-19 restrictions – June 2021 

On 30th December 2020, the Government agreed to move the entire country to Level 5 lockdown from midnight. All non-essential retail and services closed from 6pm on 31st December. Restrictions related to non-essential retail were gradually lifted during May 2021 with all non-essential retail allowed to fully reopen on 17th May. All sectors except for ‘wet’ pubs who lacked outdoor arrangements were open.

In June 2020, the overall volume of retail sales rose by 36.6% compared to the previous month. In June 2021, the volume of retail sales increased by 3.3% compared to the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, resulting in an annual increase of 10.6%, down from the annual increase of 46.2% recorded in May and 83.3% recorded in the year to April. Caution should be exercised when interpreting these annual changes, as the comparisons are with low bases from last year. The volume of retail sales in June 2021 was 13.4% higher when compared to June 2019.

Imputation

The Retail Sales Index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends shown by other similar companies and from other available data sources.

Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for June 2021 at retail business sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for June. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:

• Published media and research reports on the retail sector in June 2021 
• Government guidelines and announcements on restrictions and essential retail/services under the different Levels (1-5) of Ireland’s Plan for Living with COVID-19
• Retailers’ websites, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending in June compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs
• Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment

Seasonal Adjustment

The spending patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models have been reviewed each month since March 2020 and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series. 

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for June 2021 and urge them to continue to do so for July and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still required to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information to derive the best estimate for retail sales in July. The July Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 30th August 2021.