Retail Sales Index
Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with information each month and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support.
December 2020
On 1st December 2020 COVID-19 restrictions began to be eased, with the reopening of all non-essential retail shops, hair and beauty providers, gyms and leisure centres, cinemas, museums and galleries. Restaurants, cafés, gastropubs and hotel restaurants reopened three days later. As Ireland entered into the third wave of COVID-19, the Government agreed on 22nd December to move the entire country to Level 5 lockdown restrictions with a number of adjustments from Christmas Eve until 12th January 2021 at the earliest. On 30th December 2020, the Government agreed to move the entire country to full Level 5 lockdown restrictions from midnight until 31st January 2021 at the earliest.
December 2021
On 1st December 2021, the Omicron variant was detected in Ireland. On December 3rd some COVID-19 restrictions were re-imposed. These included the closure of nightclubs, bars and restaurants reverting to the rule of no more than six adults per table with no multiple table bookings allowed, indoor cultural and sporting events had to operate at 50% capacity, a maximum of four households allowed to meet indoors and the requirement of vaccination certificates was extended to gyms, leisure centres and hotel bars. Further COVID-19 restrictions were imposed on 20th December 2021 for the Christmas period, with an 8pm closing time for bars, restaurants, live events, cinemas and theatres.
Black Friday
In 2019 "Black Friday" occurred in the December reporting period, while it fell in the November reporting period in both 2020 and 2021.
Imputation
The Retail Sales Index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends shown by other similar companies and from other available data sources.
Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for December 2021 at retail business sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for December. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:
Seasonal Adjustment
The spending patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models have been reviewed each month since March 2020 and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.
Thanking Respondents
The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for December 2021 and urge them to continue to do so for January 2022 and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still required to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information to derive the best estimate for retail sales in January 2022. The January Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 28th February 2022.
CSO publication, 28th January, 11am
Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123
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