Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Retail Sales Index May 2020

Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite the current difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with this information and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support. 

However, due to temporary closures and the difficulties faced by businesses, the response rate for the May 2020 RSI was about six percentage points lower than the corresponding month last year.

Data Collection in May 2020

Many retail outlets were still closed in May, with only a small number of sectors, classified as essential retail outlets on 27^th March, allowed to open their shops for the whole of the month. On 18^th May Phase 1 of the Roadmap for Reopening Society and Business commenced with further sectors now free to reopen for business. These businesses included Opticians/optometrists; Sale, supply and repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and bicycles; Hardware stores, builders' merchants and stores selling supplies and tools essential for gardening/farming/agriculture; Office products and supplies; Electrical, IT and phone sales, repair and maintenance services.

While some sectors remained closed, many have turned to online sales to generate turnover and provide a service to customers. A sample of outlets in closed sectors have reported some element of turnover, related to ancillary activities such as online sales, take-away food, off-licence sales etc. As bricks and mortar shops reopened, the proportion of sales online fell in May (13.1%), compared to April when more than 15% of all retail sales were on line.

Imputation

The Retail Sales index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends from other similar companies and other data available at the time.

Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for May 2020 at retail business category level. The CSO is satisfied that this full range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for May. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation included:

• Government communications on the list of essential services and outlets indicating when sectors shut down in March and remain closed
• Roadmap for Reopening Society and Business – Phase 1
• Published media and research reports on the retail sector for the month
• Retailers’ websites, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending in May compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs
• Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Wage Subsidy Scheme

Seasonal Adjustment

The figures for the months of March, April and May 2020 are an exception to existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood.  The seasonal adjustment models were reviewed in May 2020 and changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for May and urge them to continue to do so for June and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still needed to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will also continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for retail sales in June. The June Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 28th July.