Information note on Implications of COVID - 19 on the Retail Sales Index July 2020

Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite the current difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with this information and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support.

However, due to temporary closures and on-going difficulties faced by some businesses, the response rate for the July 2020 RSI was about three percentage points lower than the corresponding month last year.

Imputation

The Retail Sales index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends from other similar companies and other data available at the time.

Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for July 2020 at retail business sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this full range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for July. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:

• Roadmap for Reopening Society and Business – Phases 1 & 2 and 3
• Published media and research reports on the retail sector in July
• Retailers’ websites, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending in July compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs
• Sectoral data on the numbers availing of support schemes such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Wage Subsidy Scheme

Seasonal Adjustment

The spending patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood.  The seasonal adjustment models were reviewed in July 2020 and were changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series.

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for July and urge them to continue to do so for August and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still required to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information described above to derive the best estimate for retail sales in August. The August Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 28th September.