Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources 2014-2020

In this chapter, migration is estimated using real time administrative data based on a ‘monthly’ methodology, where migration is dependent on a person showing activity in administrative data for seven months out of a 12 month period before emigration/after immigration.

This methodology was used for the first six months of 2020 and also for the year 2019 to analyse trends over one and a half years.

While it is in principle possible to compare the figures for 2019 with the 'annual' methodology in the previous chapter, remember that the ‘monthly’ methodology is currently limited to employment and welfare data only. However, because it uses real time data, it can better identify and exclude short term migrants and so is more closely aligned with the Official definition of migrants, (described in the Introduction). As more datasets become available in real time, the ‘monthly’ method will become more accurate. Real time data has also improved the coverage of key information for individual records and could allow estimates and analysis to be produced sooner and also more frequently, for example, calculating quarterly rather than calendar year estimates. Real time data also provides other insights, for example economic status, which is of great benefit during sudden emergencies such as the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as noted in the Introduction, persons who are economically inactive are not included in the current methodology resulting in an inherent bias towards lower estimated migration numbers.

The figures reported are subject to revision as more data becomes available.

The estimate for net migration in 2019 using the ‘monthly’ methodology (25,800) was lower than those from the 'annual' methodology. This is because in order to compare monthly 2019 and 2020 figures the same administrative data sources must be used, but less data sources are currently available for 2020. This leads to an underestimate of immigration (while also removing short term migrants) in the 'monthly' methodology compared to the 'two dataset rule'. 

First results from this experimental approach show immigration and emigration both fell in the first half of 2020, (particularly in Q2), compared with the same time period in 2019. See Table 1.1 and Figure 3.1.

Using the 'monthly' methodology, net migration in 2019 and in the first half of 2020 was highest for people from the ‘Rest of world’, (i.e., for people from outside the EU and the UK), at 27,300. In the first half of 2020, net migration for people from the ‘Rest of world’ was 8,700. See Table 3.1.

Irish, Brazilian, Romanian and Indian were the top four nationalities migrating into Ireland in 2019 under the 'monthly' methodology. This pattern matches the results from the annual methodology using the ‘two dataset rule’ shown in the previous chapter. A similar trend continued for the first half of 2020. See Table 3.2.

Note that the nationality breakdown in this analysis does not capture any changes in citizenship status, for example, an immigrant acquiring Irish nationality. 

Data are not yet available to CSO for 2020 for education and the self-employed (and so education and self-employed data are not utilised in 2019 in order to balance datasets across years when comparing 2019 and 2020) and this impacts the measurement of the migration flows of Irish nationals more than other nationality groups. For example, there are many more Irish students enrolled in third level education than non-Irish. If an Irish student worked in 2019 but was only a student in 2020, they would be counted as an emigrant in the month they finished working. The lack of self-employment data will have a similar effect. Real time data on self-employed and education would greatly improve measurement of migration in recent years in both the 'annual' and 'monthly' methodology, particularly for Irish emigrants.

The highest net migration in 2019, and the first half of 2020, was for those aged 25-44. This is similar to the pattern seen for the 'annual' methodology for 2019 in the previous chapter. See Table 3.3.

Net migration was also highest for both males and females aged 25-44 during 2019 and the first six months of 2020.

The fall in net migration for age groups 15-24 and 45-64 compared to the 'annual' methodology in 2019 is likely caused by the current non availability of education and self-employed data.

The highest net migration in 2019 was for people who were substantially employed, at 21,100. A similar pattern was seen for the 'annual' methodology in the previous chapter.

Net migration of substantially employed people fell between the year 2019 and the first half of 2020, from 21,100 to -2,100 under the 'monthly' methodology.  These figures are subject to revision as employment data for 2021 are not yet available, so numbers for substantially employed immigrants may be underestimated as it is defined as being in employment in either the calendar year the person migrated to Ireland or the following year (see Methodology). Contributing factors to the increase in the net migration of unemployed persons in 2020 would include the Covid-19 pandemic which affected employees from the middle of the January-June 2020 period onwards, see Table 3.4