A CSO Frontier Series Output- What is this?
Definition of immigrant and emigrant
The Official definition of an immigrant (as per the European Commission) is a person who establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country. For emigrants the Official definition is a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, who ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months. If a migrant is present and/or absent for more than 3 months but less than 12 months except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage, they are considered a short term migrant. An example of a short term migrant is a seasonal worker.
Definition of net migration
Net migration is defined as the net difference in the number of persons coming to the State minus the number of persons leaving, i.e. the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants.
The methodology in this report does not strictly adhere to the official definition for migrants, as short-term migrants are included in the immigration and emigration estimates.
Different methodologies, namely 'annual' and 'monthly' with distinct counting rules were developed, in which context around immigration and emigration are defined and described below:
The CSO developed two distinct 'annual' methodologies (the 'one dataset rule' and the 'two dataset rule') which compare two consecutive calendar years for the period 2014-2019, as most administrative datasets are available on an annual basis. Note that not all administrative datasets (see Background Notes) were available for the whole period of 2014-2019.
Pooling of data
The first step involves pooling all available information from the various administrative datasets. Around six million records were pooled, for which immigration and emigration indicators were developed.
One dataset rule: definition of immigrant and emigrant in administrative data
Immigration and emigration are defined in this experimental administrative analysis based on the presence or absence of a person in two consecutive calendar years. The simplest method is to look for activity in at least one dataset:
An immigrant is a person who appears in at least one dataset in year two and does not appear in any datasets in year one.
An emigrant is defined as a person who is present in at least one dataset in year one and absent from all datasets in year two.
Short-term migrants will be included in the in-ward and out-ward migration flows estimated with the 'one dataset rule'. For example, a person coming to Ireland for four months in a calendar year is more likely to be included in the immigration and emigration figures. A person leaving Ireland for four months and then returning, however, is less likely to be included in the immigration or emigration counts.
The administrative data sources used do not always include the exact length of stay or absence, and hence short-term migrants are included. With the advent of new real-time administrative data sources, such as PAYE Modernisation (PMOD), it will be possible to measure activity within and across years more accurately in future.
Two dataset rule: definition of immigrant and emigrant in administrative data
The two dataset rule excludes some short term migrants based on the stronger likelihood of presence and produces better quality data on immigration and emigration.
An immigrant (in year two) is a person who does not appear in any datasets in year one and either:
appears in year two in at least two datasets
or
appears in year two in at least one dataset and in year three in at least one dataset
or
appears in year two in at least one dataset under the three exceptions shown below.
An emigrant (in year two) is a person who does not appear in any datasets in year three and either:
appears in year two in at least two datasets
or
appears in year one in at least one dataset and in year two in at least one dataset
or
appears in year two in at least one dataset under the three exceptions shown below.
There are three exceptions where a person is considered in the migration flows even though they are not active in two different datasets for a given year, or not active in two consecutive calendar years:
(a) a PAYE employee (present in PIR/PMOD P35) with at least 27 weeks’ employment in the calendar year and earning a minimum average of €100 weekly in the calendar year.
(b) a child under six in the Child Benefit dataset*.
*Note: Births in Ireland are inferred from the available administrative data. A child registered with the Central Records System (CRS) within 6 months of their birth is considered a ‘birth’ in that year and would not be counted as an immigrant upon starting Child Benefit.
(c) a person receiving the State Pension or a welfare payment that requires habitual residency.
Exception (a) avoids excluding employed people who are not receiving Child Benefit or other benefits and who are not present in any other datasets. Exception (b) is needed as children under six may not be enrolled in school and so usually only appear in the Child Benefit dataset.
Certain datasets (for example, the Child Benefit dataset) have priority for these exceptions. Presence in one of these datasets is taken as proof of residency and activity in a second dataset, or in two consecutive years, is not necessary. The exceptions also try to acknowledge that not everyone may be present in two datasets, e.g. the administrative interaction of a young professional with the State may only be with Revenue.
Before using personal administrative data for statistical purposes, the CSO removes all identifying personal information. This includes the Personal Public Service Number (PPSN), a unique number used by people in Ireland to access social welfare benefits, personal taxation and other public services. A pseudonymised Protected Identifier Key (PIK) is created by the CSO when the PPSN is removed. This PIK is unique and non-identifiable and is only used by the CSO.
Using the PIK enables the CSO to link and analyse data for statistical purposes, while protecting the security and confidentiality of the individual data. All records in the matched datasets are pseudonymised and the results are in the form of statistical aggregates which do not identify any individuals.
It is important to ensure that there is consistency and availability for a given dataset in two consecutive years to avoid miscounting immigrants or emigrants.
If an extra dataset is used in year one but not in year two, then there is a possibility that persons in the additional dataset may be counted as an emigrant. For example, a person could be a university student in year one and year two. If the student dataset is not available for year two, then this person would incorrectly be counted as an emigrant in year one. A similar scenario would be if the student dataset is not available in year one, but available in year two. In this case the person would incorrectly be counted as an immigrant in year two.
In general, the maximum available data should be used for all years to ensure the ‘pool’ of PIKs is representative for each year. For emigrants, this means having the same number or more of datasets in year two compared with year one, (measuring presence in year one and absence in year two). The same number or more of datasets is needed in year one compared with year two for immigrants, (measuring absence in year one and presence in year two).
When balancing datasets, the same datasets must be used when comparing two consecutive calendar years and the contents of the datasets must be similar. For example, the 2018 Child Benefit dataset and the 2019 Child Benefit have similar contents (persons receiving Child Benefit in 2018 and 2019 respectively) and are used among other datasets to compare 2018 and 2019.
The number of datasets used for recent years is limited by availability. However, those used in this analysis are considered to be representative. Results are open to revision as more data becomes available.
Note, academic datasets (HEA, POD, PPPDB, QQI, SUSI, Springboard) span two calendar years, for example both SUSI 2016/17 and SUSI 2017/18 are used in the calendar year 2017. For more details on the datasets used see 'Background Notes'.
There is less administrative data available for more recent years. However, the ‘monthly’ methodology for 2019 and 2020 includes persons who are employed and those receiving welfare payments. It also includes children and their parents/guardians receiving Child Benefit payments (a monthly equivalent of the Child Benefit dataset was created from DSP payments and CRS for 2019 and 2020). Children over 15 and their guardians were excluded. This is because child benefit may be stopped when the child moved to higher or further education, but educational datasets (HEA, QQI etc) are not yet available for 2020. Monthly data is available from January 2019 up to and including December 2020.
This methodology was used for the first six months of 2020 and also for the year 2019. Migration estimates are dependent on a person showing activity in administrative data for seven months out of a 12 month period before emigration/after immigration.
To be counted as an immigrant in 2019 an individual must be:
- absent in 2018 (from all available datasets)
- absent in 2019 up to the month of immigration
- present for at least seven months (including month of immigration) in the monthly Revenue or welfare data in the twelve months after immigration
To be counted as an immigrant in 2020 an individual must be:
- absent in 2019 (from all available datasets)
- absent in 2020 up to the month of immigration
- present for at least seven months (including month of immigration) in the monthly Revenue or DSP data for 2020
To be counted as an emigrant in 2019:
- present in 2018 (any available dataset)
- present in 2019 for at least seven months (including month of emigration) in the monthly Revenue or DSP data. If an individual emigrated in the first seven months of the year, then the person had to present in the month of emigration and all the previous months
- absent from Revenue and DSP data for twelve months after the last activity in the month of emigration
To be counted as an emigrant in 2020:
- present in 2019
- present for at least seven months in the monthly Revenue or DSP in the twelve months leading up to and including the month of emigration in 2020
- Absent in all available data in 2020 after month of emigration
There are four classifications used for the economic status of persons aged 15 and over:
1. Substantial employment: people with either A or B below:
A. Substantial P35 employment with at least 12 weeks of insurable work within the calendar year. This can be supplemented by weeks of maternity and/or illness leave.
And
Average weekly earnings are at least €100 from the main employer in the calendar year.
B. Substantial self-employment with total turnover across all self-employment activities of at least €1,000 within the calendar year.
2. Unemployed: People not in substantial employment who received unemployment benefits during the calendar year.
3. Pensioner: People receiving the non-contributory or contributory state pensions.
4. Other: All other people (including students).
All references to the calendar year above for substantial employment can also include the following year (for immigrants, if available) or the previous year (for emigrants). In the context of substantially employed, note that illness, maternity and self-employment data is available up to and including 2019. However, employment data is available up to and including 2020.
An international student does not require a PPSN if they study at a HEA institution and do not work. International students without PPSN’s cannot be matched in the administrative data and will not be counted, either as an immigrant or an emigrant (when they leave after finishing their course). This analysis uses HEA enrolments for data on international student migrants. Additional information on missing PPSN’s for HEA graduates can be found here:
Higher Education Outcomes - Background Statistics
There is no administrative data currently available indicating if a person is working remotely in Ireland but living abroad. All people who are tax resident in Ireland are counted in these experimental migration estimates. This area will require more study in the future as increasing numbers of people work remotely.
Non-resident employees recruited and working abroad
P35 payroll submissions are not necessary for an employee who is not resident in Ireland for income tax purposes.
Each person’s location inside or outside Ireland is acquired from several data sources for each calendar year. Persons living outside the State in the relevant year are excluded from the counts.
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