Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources 2014-2020

This new report ‘Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources, 2014-2020’ is from the CSO Frontier Series of outputs. It uses pseudonymised administrative data from public sector bodies to produce experimental estimates of immigration and emigration flows in Ireland in recent years, by sex, age, nationality and economic status.

The administrative data used in this report was not initially created for measuring migration, but rather for service delivery and day to day operations of public bodies. However, activity in administrative data can be a sign of presence in the State. This experimental work attempts to estimate migration flows by measuring activity in the administrative data using a number of different counting rules and methodologies. 

The Official definition of an immigrant (as per the European Commission) is a person who establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country. For emigrants the Official definition is a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, who ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months. If a migrant is present and/or absent for more than 3 months but less than 12 months except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage, they are considered a short term migrant. An example of a short term migrant is a seasonal worker.

The methodology in this report does not strictly adhere to the Official definition for migrants, as short-term migrants are included in the immigration and emigration estimates.  With the advent of new real-time administrative data sources, such as PAYE Modernisation (PMOD), it will be possible to measure activity within and across years more accurately in future.

This report aims to estimate migration flows aligned with Official definitions as closely as possible, by suggesting residency based on different administrative record activity rules and illustrating the results from the respective methodological approach adopted.

(NOTE: for official CSO statistics on migration estimates see Population and Migration Estimates)

This report is divided into three parts – 'annual' methodology, statistical potential of real time data ('monthly' methodology), and statistical potential of first residence permit allocations.

‘Annual' methodology - This is an experimental methodology to obtain immigration and emigration numbers for the years 2014 to 2019 inclusively where activity in a number of administrative datasets in a calendar year was regarded as evidence of residency in the State. In general, if a person had no activity in administrative data in a calendar year, but was active the next year then they would be considered an immigrant in the second year. If a person had activity in a calendar year, but no activity in the next year, then they would be considered an emigrant in the first year. Two different counting rules were developed for the 'annual' methodology, namely the:

'one dataset rule' - a person must show activity in a minimum of one dataset in a calendar year

'two dataset rule' - a person must show activity in two datasets, although there are exceptions, (see Methodology).

The 'two dataset rule' is better able to exclude some short term migrants, and is less sensitive to underlying changes in the administrative data from one year to the next (for example an improvement in PPSN coverage).

‘Monthly’ methodology - this experimental methodology relies mainly on real time administrative data to estimate migrant numbers for 2019 and the first six months of 2020. As time goes on, this ‘monthly’ method will be more accurate as more real time data becomes available. In addition, as new administrative data sources become available they may improve the measurement of the number of migrants that are economically inactive.

The 'monthly' methodology counts persons as immigrants or emigrants if they are showing activity for seven months out of a 12 month period before emigration/after immigration. 

The 'monthly' methodology only includes real time data for the welfare and PMOD employment datasets.

The key findings of the report are:

• Net migration was positive between 2014 and 2019, i.e., more people arrived than left. Net migration over the six years from 2014 to 2019 was estimated at 199,100 using the ‘one dataset rule’ and 190,400 using the ‘two dataset rule’. 

• Net migration was positive for non-Irish migrants between 2014 and 2019, i.e., more non-Irish people arrived than left. By 2019 the highest numbers of non-Irish immigrants were from Brazil and Romania for both 'annual' methodologies.

• About half of immigrants and just under half (47%) of emigrants each year were aged between 25 and 44, using both 'annual' methodologies.

• Net migration dropped from 13,400 to 4,800 between the first half of 2019 and 2020, using the ‘monthly’ methodology. 

• Under the ‘monthly’ methodology, 64% of immigrants aged 15 and over were substantially employed in Ireland in the first half of 2020.

All administrative data currently available and relevant to migration was used for this analysis. However, this methodology could be improved in the future as further administrative data becomes available from new sources.

The CSO has tried to accurately estimate the migration flows using the experimental methodology in this publication. However, there are additional data sources which have the potential to improve the accuracy of data on recent migrants into Ireland and lead to better data for policy-makers (see  'Statistical potential of real time data' and 'Statistical potential for residence permits data in measuring migration flows'). 

This report is an example of the policy-relevant research projects the CSO are developing as part of its leadership role in the Irish Statistical System. Our goal is to maximise the variety and volume of data available to provide high quality information to the Government, businesses and citizens, through the development of a National Data Infrastructure (NDI).

The NDI plays an integral part in facilitating the CSO to develop new and improved statistical products for the benefit of citizens and policymakers. The core concept of the NDI involves the collection, maintenance and storage on all public-sector data holdings, of the associated PPSN, Eircode and Unique Business Identifier (UBI) to be developed whenever they are relevant to Public Sector Body transactions with customers. This supports the development of targeted policy interventions.

Under the auspices of the Statistics Act 1993, and in compliance with all relevant data protection legislation, the CSO is in a unique position to gather and link administrative data sources held by Government departments and agencies and evaluate their potential for statistical use.

The demand for data and insight into Irish society continues to grow unabated. The growth is not just apparent in terms of the broad range of themes (e.g. globalisation, productivity and well-being) that Official Statisticians are being asked to provide information on, but also in relation to the level of detail being required in the analysis (e.g. socio-demographic variables). Clearly the range and depth of demand for data cannot be met from survey data alone. Analysis of new data sources is needed, including administrative records held by Public Sector Bodies.