CSO Frontier Series outputs may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release.
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This chapter of the IPEADS 2022 Research Paper shows how the methodology uses administrative data to produce experimental population statistics. Many of the underlying trends that are seen in the census are also seen in these statistics. In some cases, there are notable differences between what has been produced here and what we see in the census and other surveys. This mainly happens because the methods of data collection and analysis are very different.
The experimental methodology used to compile the following statistics is outlined in greater detail in the methodology chapter. Using this methodology, the population of Ireland was estimated to be 5.33 million in April 2022. This estimate is produced using data collected from administrative records only and applying a set of ‘rules’ to decide whether a person is likely to be usually resident or not. Applying a population concept of usual residence to data collected from administrative records is challenging and the CSO are undertaking further analysis to improve the accuracy of these estimates. It may take several years of refinement and commitment across the broader public sector through the National Data Ecosystem, before the CSO has sufficient confidence that these estimates play an integral part in the production of official population statistics.
The number of males and females in 2022, by single year of age, is represented in the population pyramid in Figure 2.1. There were high numbers of births in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The children born then were in their late 30s and early 40s in 2022 and are the main contribution to the bulge in the middle of the population pyramid. Another contribution to this cohort is as a result of strong inward migration of people aged 20 to 30 starting in the late 1990s up until 2009. Even though the number of births peaked at 74,000 in 1980 the number of persons aged around 40 in 2020 is estimated to be about 89,000 reflecting the net inward migration. This cohort then drove the high birth rates from 2007 on, peaking at over 75,000 in 2009.
Low birth rates in the late 1980s and 1990s combined with net outward migration between 2010 and 2014 has resulted in the smaller population of persons in their teenage years and 20s. As a result, we have seen a drop off in births recently reflected in the shape of the pyramid from age 10 and under.
The interactive population pyramid below shows how the age structure of the population differs across Ireland. In very urban areas such as Dublin City, Galway City and Cork City there are relatively fewer children and large cohorts of young adults. Whereas in more suburban and rural areas there are higher proportions of children and adults in their 30s and 40s. This difference in the population structure is particularly noticeable when comparing Cork City and Cork County for example.
As Eircode coverage improves on administrative data it is increasingly possible to produce statistics at lower levels of geography than Local Authority. While gaps still exist Eircode coverage is improving and estimates at Local Electoral Area (LEA) are becoming more robust. Extreme caution is still urged when using these figures as not all administrative records have an Eircode and the gaps in coverage are not equally spread across all LEAs.
Dependents are defined for statistical purposes as people outside the normal working age of 15-64. Dependency ratios are used to give a useful indication of the age structure of a population with young (0-14) and old (65+) shown as a percentage of the population of working age (15-64).
The total dependency ratio stood at 51.6% for the State. When examined by sex the results show total dependency was higher for women, at 52.1%, than for men at 51.2%, this difference is driven by the gap in the old dependency ratio for women (23.4%) compared with men (21.3%). The young dependency ratio was slightly higher for men (29.9%) than women (28.7%).
Young dependency, shown in Map 2.2, is the number of young people aged 0-14 as a percentage of the population of working age, stood at 29.3% for the State. Dublin City had the lowest young dependency at 20.7%, followed by Galway City at 22.8%. Laois had the highest young dependency at 33.8%, followed by Meath with 33.7%.
Old dependency, the number of older people aged 65+ as a percentage of the population of working age, stood at 22.3% for the State. Map 2.3 shows that local authorities of the North West, Kerry and Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown recorded the highest old dependency ratios between 26.3% and 29.1%. Fingal (16.2%) and Kildare (17.6%) recorded the lowest old dependency ratios.
The average age of the population is estimated to be 38.3 years in 2022. Fingal recorded the youngest population at 35.9, followed by Meath at 36.3. Dún Laoghaire (40.4), Kerry (40.1), and Mayo (40.1) have the oldest populations. Map 2.4 shows average age of the population for each Local Authority.
At 38.8, the average age for women was one year older than men who had an average age of 37.8. When examined by sex, the average age for women is higher in all county and city administrative areas.
Data on nationality can be derived from information collected by the Department of Social Protection and provides good coverage across the population. It is important to note that for many individuals this data may have been collected several years ago and in some cases, people may no longer identify with the nationality recorded here. In particular, many people have become Irish citizens by naturalisation in the last 10 years or so. This more recent status may not be reflected in these statistics.
The age and sex breakdown of a selection of nationalities can be seen in Figure 2.3 below. The dropdown menu above the chart can be used to view the age structure of each nationality. The age profile of different nationalities varies widely. For example, a large proportion of Australian nationals are under the age of 15 (2,403 out of a total of 5,666). Brazilian nationals are concentrated in the 25 to 34 age group (19,432 out of a total of 38,774) while Polish nationals are more likely to be aged between 35 and 44 (55,108 out of a total of 124,831) and UK nationals are mostly over 45 years of age (87,992 out of a total of 148,603).
Newly active persons in this instance are those that were not active on any administrative systems in the previous year. These include new-borns, new migrants, and returning migrants. It is also possible that during 2022, some were not in education, training, employment, or in receipt of any payments from DSP, but may have appeared in previous years.
Figure 2.4 shows the broad nationality of newly active persons by sex. Irish citizens were excluded from the graph as a large part of that cohort relate to new born children. In 2022, the main nationalities were Ukrainian (36,932), Indian (11,293), Romanian (9,340), UK (6,966) and Brazilian (6,858).
Deriving data on the economic status of persons aged 15 and over can be attempted by looking at what datasets they appear on and/or by their type of tax return or welfare payment. It can be difficult to confidently ascertain what the likely ‘principal’ economic status is however, particularly in cases where someone is appearing on multiple different datasets. For example, some students may also be working, and it may not be clear whether they are working part time or studying part time. This methodology is quite different to the official CSO estimates on economic status reported in Census and the Labour Force Survey publications, which are based on a person's self-assessment of their economic status (See Background Notes).
The level of unemployment does not accurately reflect the situation during the COVID-19 pandemic as persons in employment who also received a Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) during the year will be included as ‘persons at work’.
Figure 2.5 gives a breakdown of principal economic status by sex for persons aged 15 and over. For this Research Paper, the labour force is comprised of persons at work and all unemployed persons. The results show that the total in the labour force in April 2022 stood at 2,810,003, which represents 65.3% of all persons aged 15 years and over.
(Note: The official labour force and unemployment estimates are compiled in the Labour Force Survey (LFS). The results in this report differ for methodological reasons from these official estimates (See Background Notes).
In Figure 2.6 we can see the proportion of persons at work and unemployed in each Local Authority.
Data on industry group is provided from the PAYE Modernisation (PMOD) and Form 11 Income Tax returns (ITForm11) data sources and is coded using NACE – the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community. In the Census the industrial group of each person is determined from a question requesting details of the business of the person's main employer. Using only administrative data sources to determine each person's industry group presents a number of possible issues:
Figure 2.7 shows the numbers at work by industry group and by sex highlighting the differences between male and female employment. A significantly higher number of men worked in construction compared with women. By comparison more women than men worked in health and social work. Public administration and defence also show higher numbers of women than men, this group includes administration in state services including health, education and social services as well as defence and fire services.
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