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Background and Methodology

Background and Methodology

Almost 63% of residential dwellings were purchased with a mortgage in 2021

CSO statistical release, , 11am

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this release as it may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. For further information on the data sources, linking procedures and limitations of this report, see the Background and Methodology section.

Methodology

The results presented in this publication are based on a number of data sources:

  • The Person Income Register
  • Residential Property Price Index dataset 
  • Stamp Duty participant file
  • Central Credit Register

The linkage and analysis was undertaken by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for statistical purposes in line with the Statistics Act, 1993 and the CSO Data Protocol [1] .

All data sources are pseudonymised prior to linking. The Personal Public Service Number (PPSN) is a unique number that enables individuals to access social welfare benefits, personal taxation and other public services in Ireland. The CSO removes the PPSN and replaces it with a Protected Identifier Key (PIK). The PIK is an encrypted and randomised number used by the CSO to enable linking of records across data sources and over time, while at the same time preserving privacy.

All results are in the form of statistical aggregates which do not identify any individuals.

Data Sources

Person Income Register (PIR)

The PIR is an income register held internally within the CSO. It contains information on income received by individuals relating to employment, self-employment and social transfers. It is derived from pseudonymised versions of administrative data holdings held by the Revenue Commissioners and Department of Social Protection. The PIR provides a near complete picture on individual level income, for a calendar year. 

Residential Property Price Index (RPPI)

The RPPI dataset covers all market purchases of houses and apartments by households, both cash and mortgage-based transactions. Non-market transactions (e.g. family transfers) and non-household purchases (e.g. purchases by private companies or institutions) are specifically excluded from the RPPI index and this analysis. Also excluded are self-builds (i.e. where the land is purchased separately) and purchases of partially built dwellings. The main RPPI dataset is created from these administrative holdings – Stamp Duty returns, Building Energy Ratings (BER), the Geodirectory and the Pobal Deprivation Index [2].

Stamp Duty Participant Section

The participant section of the Stamp Duty form provides information on individuals purchasing a property. For this analysis, the PPSN is extracted and also the address string provided. The PPSN is converted to a PIK and the address string is utilised to extract a broad geographic location (county or country if not in Ireland).

Central Credit Register (CCR)

The Central Credit Register is a database of loans (of €500 or more), which includes information on consumer loans such as credit cards, mortgages, personal loans and overdrafts.

Definitions

Type of Buyer

There are two types of buyer defined:

  • Buyer with a mortgage: at least one named purchaser on the Stamp Duty return who had an in-scope mortgage on the Central Credit Register
  • Buyer without a mortgage: no named purchaser on the Stamp Duty return was found on the Central Credit Register or if they were, the mortgage in question was ruled out of scope

Gross Income

Gross income is defined as the sum of these three items in the year before the filing or execution of the Stamp Duty return:

  • Employee income (PAYE income)
  • Self-employed profit and Irish rental income (both from ITForm11)
  • Social transfers (DSP payments)

Gross income for a sole transaction is the sum of the three items above for the purchaser. For a joint transaction, gross income is the sum of the three items above for all purchasers on the Stamp Duty return.

In-scope vs Out of scope Mortgage

The CCR was linked to the property transaction dataset, through utilising a PIK which is created through deterministic matching techniques when creating the statistical analysis version of the CCR. A second challenge exists when linking the datasets in that there was no direct way to identify if the mortgage in question on the CCR relates to the property transaction on the Stamp Duty return dataset.

Therefore, the following methodology was adopted to identify whether a transaction involved a mortgage or not.

  1. Link all potential individuals involved in a residential property transaction to all potential individuals who have a mortgage (Home Loan, Buy-to-Let, Lifetime Mortgage Plan) on the CCR, by PIK.
  2. As the same person can be involved in more than one property transaction over time and in certain cases have more than one mortgage on the CCR there is a need to identify if the mortgage in question relates to the property transactions in question.
  3. Count the number of days between when the property transfer was executed and when the mortgage contract began.
  4. Various criteria are taken to rule a mortgage in or out of scope.
    1. The mortgage contract began after the property was legally transferred. If this is the case the mortgage is ruled out of scope.
    2. If multiple mortgages match to different transactions, the closest mortgage is taken. Closest match is based on days between the two events.
    3. If the loan to value rate (LTV) is above 101% the mortgage is ruled out of scope.
  5. In testing the methodology, across the period 2010-2021, a total of 412,980 dwelling transactions were examined and 231,560 were estimated to have been purchased involving a mortgage.

Reference Period

Statistics are produced in relation to the year a property transaction was filed with the Revenue Commissioners and the year the property transaction was executed. The ages of the people involved in the transactions are based on the year and month of when the transaction was filed or executed.

Gross income data, (defined above), relates to the calendar year before the Stamp Duty transaction was filed or executed. For example, for a Stamp Duty transaction filed or executed in 2016, the gross income used is for the reference year 2015. Therefore, transactions in year t use income data for year t-1. This was done because there was not enough information for 2021 incomes, (particularly for the self-employed), when this report was compiled.

If no Gross Income information is available in the calender year prior, gross income is set to missing.

Target and Covered Population

The target population relates to all (participants) individuals who are involved in the RPPI’s definition of market-based household purchases over the period.

The actual population covered was smaller than the target population because of two main types of missing data – unique identifiers and demographic/income information.

Missing Unique Identifiers

When unique identifiers are absent, it may not be possible to assign a PIK.

Missing Demographic and Income Information 

When a PIK is not assigned, then income variables and demographic characteristics, (such as age) can’t be assigned to records. This means income characteristics can also not be assigned. In some cases, even where a PIK is assigned, it is still possible for income to be missing. Reasons for this can include that the person could:

  • have income outside the scope of the Gross income defined above
  • be working outside Ireland with income declared in another jurisdiction
  • be starting employment in Ireland.

For all these reasons above, the covered population is less than the target population.

Note that individuals without a PIK are assumed not to have a mortgage in the statistics or who couldn't be match to an in-scope mortgage on the CCR.

Between 2010 and 2019, 95% of individuals who bought a property were assigned a PIK. This varied from a low of 89.7% in 2010 to a high of over 99.9% in 2021. This variation also occurred across regions. Therefore, care should be taken when examining statistics in certain years, but also with certain lower level breakdowns. 

In order to have a consistent income definition over a longer time series, income statistics are only produced from 2012 onwards. 

Limitations of Analysis

Please note the following limitations of the analysis in this publication.

  • Care must be taken in interpreting data over the period 2010-2015 due to missing PIKs. Statistics such as the median age can potentially be distorted because of records which are not randomly missing. For example, older females were more likely to be missing a PIK. Statistical methods to correct this (i.e. imputation) were not successful and therefore no correction was made.
  • When analysing trends (changes in prices, income, loan amount or age) over periods and in different regions there may be increased variability at lower level breakdowns due to lower number of transactions. 
  • When comparing median price values across time, region or cohort, users should be aware that there can be compositional impacts due to the mix of properties. 
  • Remember when examining income and price data, that some purchasers may use other means besides income when funding a purchase, (for example, selling another property or using savings).
  • This analysis includes a varied mix of purchasers (first-time buyers, previous owners, buying-to-let etc.).
  • Given the difficulties in integrating the CCR there may be an undercount of the number of properties which have been purchased with a mortgage and an overcount of properties purchased without a mortgage. As noted, both the Central Bank of Ireland and Banking and Payments Federation Ireland produce figures on mortgage drawdowns in Ireland. While those figures may differ to values produced here this can be due to not only limitations in this analysis, due to data integration, but also the cohort of properties examined which are a subset of the total number of mortgage drawdowns. 

Statistical Disclosure Control

This report includes statistics based on counts from the stamp duty participant database of properties purchased and the number of individuals who purchased a property.

Statistics published on income, loan amount and prices have values rounded to the nearest hundred. Statistics published on counts have been rounded to the nearest ten. 

Also, all count figures are rounded independently and therefore totals are more accurate than the sum of rounded sub-items. (Adding up the sum of rounded sub-items will give a different figure than the total for a category.)

[1] CSO Data Protocol

[2] RPPI technical paper