This release shows regional population projections for the period 2023-2042 under different migration scenarios. These illustrate future potential population distributions at a regional level under specific scenarios and are not forecasts.
The usually resident population estimate based on Census 2022 was 5,184,000 persons. This is projected to grow significantly under the three projection scenarios to 2042. Figure 2.1 illustrates the projected population for each region at each year for the three scenarios from 2022 - 2042. Table 2.1 illustrates the percentage change in population from 2022 to the end of the projection period for each of the regions.
The largest change is projected for the high net international migration scenario, M1, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022, decreases incrementally to +45,000 per annum by 2027 and remains at this level to the end of the projection period. Under this scenario the population is projected to grow by 1,212,300 (+23.4%) over the 20-year period to 2042, to 6.4 million people. The more moderate net migration M2 scenario, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022, decreases incrementally to +30,000 persons per annum by 2032 and remains at this level to 2042, shows a population increase of 929,200 (+17.9%) over the period to 6.1 million people. Under the low net migration scenario, M3, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022, decreases incrementally to +10,000 persons per annum by 2032 and remains at this level to 2042, the population is expected to increase by 587,500 (+11.3%) to 5.77 million people in 2042.
Across all of the projection scenarios, the Mid-East sees the largest regional growth. Under M1 the Mid-East grows by 28.3% (from 774,000 to 993,400) over the 20 year projection period and under the M3 lowest migration scenario it grows by 19.7% (from 774,000 to 926,600), this shows that the growth in the Mid-East does not show as strong as relationship with international migration as other regions. Similarly, the South-East will also see a high percentage growth over the projection period. Under the M1 scenario, it will see the third highest level of growth, from 460,700 to 572,800 people (+24.3%), and, under the M3 scenario, it will see the second highest level, behind the Mid-East, to 530,900 people (+15.2%).
Conversely, the population growth levels in Dublin are highly correlated with international migration levels. Under the M1 scenario, Dublin is expected to grow by 25.0%, the second highest level of growth after the Mid-East, however under the M3 scenario Dublin shows only an 8.0% growth, which is the lowest level of growth of any region.
Annual average births are projected to experience some periods of decline under all three scenarios. This is a consequence of the projected lower total fertility rate (TFR) that we have observed over the last number of years. For the intercensal period 2016-2022 there was an annual average of 59,014 births (using registration data). This is expected to fall to an annual average of 54,700 births by 2037 - 2042 under the M1 scenario. Similar trends can be seen with both other scenarios, M2 and M3, where average annual birth figures are expected to fall in the long term, reaching 51,600 and 47,900 respectively by 2037 - 2042.
Regarding the regional distribution of births, we see a fall in births for all regions initially, with the number of births increasing in later years for some regions. In the M1 scenario, the Mid-East and the Border regions see the biggest increases over time, having average annual births of 8,600 and 4,500 respectively, over 2022 - 2027. By 2037 - 2042 these regions will see average annual births of 9,200 and 4,700 respectively.
Figure 2.2 shows the average annual regional projected births for each intercensal period from 2022 to 2042 for the chosen assumptions.
The average annual numbers of deaths are projected to increase steadily under all scenarios from an annual average of 32,417 in the 2016 - 2022 intercensal period to between 47,800 and 49,000 by the 2037 - 2042 intercensal period, depending on the scenario chosen. The increase in deaths between each period is seen across all regions.
Figure 2.3 graphs the projected average annual deaths for each migration scenario.
The net international migration is split across the 8 NUTS-3 regions based on immigration and emigration flow proportions between the years 2017 and 2022. This gives us net international migration. The largest number of international migrants are in the Dublin and South-West regions. Under the M1 high migration scenario, these areas are projected to grow by an annual average of 17,900 and 6,100 from international migration during the 2037 - 2042 period. Under the M3 scenario for the same period, these regions are projected to grow by an annual average of 3,500 and 1,600 from international migration.
The smallest numbers are seen in the Border and Midland regions which see an average annual inflow of between 2,800 and 1,700 respectively in 2037 - 2042 under the M1 high migration scenario, and an outflow of 100 people for the same period in the M3 low migration scenario. (See Figure 2.4).
Figures 2.5 and 2.6 have been included to illustrate the change in demographic structure of each NUTS-3 region over the 20-year period of the projections. Only one scenario is included here for brevity, but the same pyramid can be created for scenarios M1 and M3 using table PEC26. These pyramids highlight the changing structure of the population by 2042, in particular the increase in the number of persons aged 65 years and over.
Table 2.2 shows the population results by broad age groups under the three scenarios at five-year intervals between 2022 - 2042. This age groupings are used to derive the young and old dependency ratios seen in table PEC28.
The usual resident population estimate based on Census 2022 showed that there were 1,014,300 persons aged between 0 and 14 years. Under the high net migration scenario, M1, the population aged 0 - 14 is projected to decline from 2022 levels to 859,400 persons by 2042. This represents a decrease of 15.3% across the state by 2042. The percentage fall is largest in the South-West as the population of 0-14 year olds would fall 18.5%, from 142,400 to 116,000. The fall is smallest in the South East with numbers dropping from 90,300 in 2022 to 81,100 in 2042, a decrease of 10.2%.
Using the medium net migration scenario, M2, the number of persons aged 0-14 is projected to decline to 812,900 by 2042. This represents a decrease of 19.9% on 2022 levels. Finally under the low net migration scenario, M3, the young population will decline to 760,100 over the 20-year period, a fall of 25.1%. In both of these scenarios, the young population falls the least in the South-East, with 2042 figures of 77,600 and 74,000 for M2 and M3 scenarios respectively. The fall is most notable in Dublin under these lower inward migration scenarios with the population dropping from 269,900 in 2022 to 203,700 and 183,400 by 2042 for each respective scenario.
The working age population is comprised of those aged 15 to 64. In 2022 there were 3,388,200 persons in this age category, equating to 65.4% of the total population of 5,184,000. While the size of this population group will rise under all scenarios by 2042, its relative share of the total population is set to decrease slightly.
The M1 scenario projects that while the working age population will increase to 4,120,000 (an increase of 21.6%) by 2042, its overall share of the population of 6,396,300 will have declined slightly to 64.4%. The M2 scenario shows that the working age population will increase to 3,901,400 by 2042 but its overall share of the population will have declined from 65.4% in 2022 to 63.8% by 2042. Under the M3 scenario the working age population is projected to reach 3,630,800 persons by 2042. Its overall share of the population of 5,771,500 will be 62.9%.
Under all scenarios, the Mid-East sees the largest regional growth for people aged between 15 to 64. In 2022 there were 506,600 people in this age group in the region, this will grow to between 583,800 (+25.4%) and 635,500 (+15.2%) people by 2042 depending on the chosen scenario. Conversely, the Mid-West region sees the smallest growth of 15 to 64 year olds - with a regional population in this age group of 325,500 in 2022, this is set to reach between 334,600 (+2.8%) and 373,800 (+14.8%) by 2042.
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase significantly from its 2022 level of 781,400 persons under all three projection scenarios. By 2042, the older population will grow to between 1.38 and 1.42 million people, depending on the migration scenario chosen. In 2022, the older population accounted for 15.1% of the total population, this will grow to between 22.2% and 23.9% (for M1 and M3 respectively) of the total population by 2042.
The region with the largest growth in their older population is the Mid-East, who will see an increase of between 105.3% and 109.2% from 101,800 persons in 2022 to between 209,000 and 213,000 depending on chosen migration scenario. The region with the smallest increase in its older population is the Border with an increase of 62.4% to 66.5%.
The Young Dependency Ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) is projected to fall under all assumptions by 2057. This ratio was 29.9% nationally in 2022 and falls to between 20.8% and 20.9% in 2042. The Young Dependency Ratio is expected to be at its lowest level at the end of this projection period, 2042.
The Dublin region has the lowest Young Dependency Ratio under all projection scenarios, starting at 27% in 2022 and falling to between 17.5% and 17.7%. The Border region has the highest regional Young Dependency Ratio, starting at 33% in 2022 and falling to between 23.5% and 23.7% by 2042. (See Figure 2.7).
The Older Dependency Ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 23.1% nationally in 2022. This is projected to increase steadily over the course of the projection period. By 2042 this ratio will have grown to between 34.4% and 38% depending on the different scenario.
The Dublin region has the lowest Older Dependency Ratio for all scenarios, starting at 19.7% in 2022 and this will grow to between 29.2% and 33.4%. The Border and the Mid-West have the largest Older Dependency Ratios. Starting at 27.3% in 2022, the Border region will see an Older Dependency Ratio of between 38% and 42.5% by 2042. Similarly, the Mid-West was 26.2% in 2022 and, by 2042, will grow to between 38.6% and 42.2%. (See Figure 2.8).
The two ratios combined give the Total Dependency Ratio. In 2022 the national Total Dependency Ratio was 53.0%, meaning that there were roughly 2 people of working age for everyone aged between 0 to 14 and 65+. This is projected to rise under all scenarios to reach values of between 55.3% (M1) and 59.0% (M3) by 2042. The Border and the Mid-West regions are projected to have the highest Total Dependency Ratio by the end of the projection period. In 2042 the Border region's Total Dependency Ratio is set to be between 61.5% and 66.1% and the Mid-West will be between 61.3% and 65.1%. Dublin is set to have the smallest Total Dependency Ratio by 2042, being between 46.9% and 50.9%. (See Figure 2.9).
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