Title
Diagram of regional population projection model.
Description
This content is presented as a flow chart of the Demographic Component Model.
Content
The Demographic Component Method (DCM) works as follows:
- Beginning with the first year after the base year, the usually resident population is aged one year using suitable survivorship ratios. The survivorship ratios reflect the underlying mortality assumptions determined by the Expert Group. This gives the Surviving Population. The same national rates are applied at a regional level.
- Gross inward and outward migration rates that are expected to be experienced by the groups within the usually resident population are applied. The resulting estimate for net migration is then applied to provide the Surviving Population adjusted for net migration.
- For females aged between 15-49, the assumed specific regional fertility rates are applied to calculate the assumed number of births in the year. The assumed infant mortality rates are then applied. By combining the adjusted number of births with the number of females and the number of males, the Total Projected Population for each year is obtained.
- From the national projected population for each year, regional allocations of international and internal migration are applied. This provides the total projected population for each region for each year.
- This process then continues for Base Year + 1, Base Year + 2 all the way to the end of the projection period (in this round of projections, 2042)
Source
Source: Central Statistics Office
