Regional Population Projections 2017 - 2036

The Dublin and Mid-East regions will benefit from international and internal migration inflows, resulting in the number of women aged 20-39 in these regions increasing by 27.5% and 28.1% respectively by 2036. As a consequence, the number of births in the Mid-East region is projected to be 5.1% (500) higher in 2036 than in 2016, the corresponding increase in the Dublin region is 4.1% equating to an increase of 800.  Declining fertility rates will result in lower births across the remaining regions by 2036.  The South-East region is projected to experience the largest decrease in births from 5,600 in 2016 to 4,100 in 2036 (-26.8%).

Table 4.3 shows the projected change in the number of persons in this age group and the projected number of deaths across each of the regions for selected years.  In spite of pronounced increases in this age group in all regions between 2016 and 2036 (+82.1% at State level), the increase in deaths is projected to be much more modest, at 45.6%.  This is due to the moderating effect of assumed decreases in mortality rates.

The Mid-East region will see the largest percentage increase in deaths, with the number of deaths increasing from 3,300 in 2016 to 6,000 in 2036 (+81.8%) while the Border region will show the smallest percentage increase of +31.3% (900). See figure 4.3.

Table 4.4 and figure 4.4 illustrate the contribution of the components to population change.  The Dublin region will show the highest level of population change with annual increases of 1.7% over the period.  Dublin will benefit significantly from net international migration, which will account for almost 60.0% of the total population change of 525,000 in the Dublin region.  The Mid-East and Dublin will gain population share resulting from net internal migration inflows of 39,000 and 28,200 respectively. All other regions will experience internal migration outflows.   The natural increase will play an important role in population change across all regions. Dublin will have the largest cumulative natural increase of 188,300 while the South-East will see the smallest natural increase of 22,200 over the 20 year period to 2036.

The young population – Ages 0 – 14

Census 2016 showed that there were 1,005,500 persons aged 0-14 years in the State, this is projected to decline to 905,800 by 2036.  The largest percentage decreases in this age group will be in the South-East and Border regions with projected decreases of 25,200 (-27.5%) and 18,600 (-21.5%) respectively.  Dublin is the only region projected to have an increase in this age group by 2036, showing an increase of 25,800 (9.9%) by 2036.

Working age population – Ages 15 – 64

The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64.  In 2016 there were 3,104,300 persons in this age category, this is projected to increase to 3,759,800 (+21.1%) by 2036. This age group is projected to increase across all regions to 2036.  Dublin will have the largest increase in this age group over the period rising from 913,100 in 2016 to 1,276,400 (+39.8%).  The South-East will show the smallest percentage increase of just 1.4% (3,900) by 2036. See figure 4.5.

The older population – Ages 65 and over

The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 to 1,146,900 (+82.1%) by 2036.

The Mid-East region is projected to show the largest percentage increase of 114.8%, rising from 77,400 persons aged over 65 in 2016 to 166,200 by 2036.  The West is projected to see the smallest percentage increase in this age group of 69.4% (46,200) by 2036.

Projected dependency ratios

The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 32.4% nationally in 2016.  This is projected to fall steadily across all regions, ranging from a high of 26.1% in the Mid-East to a low of 22.4% in Dublin by 2036.

The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 20.3% at a State level in 2016.  There was quite a spread across the regions in 2016 with an older dependency rate of 24.0% in the Border region and 17.2% in the Mid-East region.  These rates are projected to increase across all regions to 2036. The South-East is projected to have the highest old dependency ratio of 39.1%, the Dublin region is projected to have the lowest old dependency ratio of 23.4%. See figure 4.6.

The two ratios combined give the total dependency ratio. In 2016 the total dependency ratio of 52.7% meant that there were roughly 2 people of working age for each person aged 0-14 and 65+.  Dublin is projected to have the lowest combined dependency rate of 45.8% by 2036.  The Border and South-East regions are projected to have the highest combined dependency ratio of 63.4% under this scenario.