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Crime Detection Rates

Crime Detection Rates

Recorded crime detection rates in 2023 were equal to or above 2022 rates for more than half of detected crime incidents

Online ISSN: 2711-9971
CSO statistical publication, , 11am
Lifting of Under Reservation Categorisation

Following the publication of the fifth Review of the Quality of Crime Statistics in October 2023, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has lifted the 'Under Reservation' categorisation around Recorded Crime Statistics. This is possible because An Garda Síochána have introduced a range of quality measures over the last number of years which have resulted in sustained improvement in the quality of the underlying crime data. These changes give a level of assurance to users that they can rely on Recorded Crime Statistics.

For further information see our Lifting of Under Reservation categorisation for Recorded Crime Statistics FAQ page.

The crime incident detection rate is the number of detected incidents divided by the number of recorded incidents.

This chapter presents crime detection rates as follows:

  1. ‘Initial’ crime detection rates for 2023 and 2022 which are those measured eight months after the end of each year. These shall be referred to as ‘Initial.'
  2. ‘Updated’ crime detection rates for 2022 are those which are measured 19 months after the end of 2022. This shall be referred to as ‘Updated.'

Crime detection rates are presented in this format to allow time for crime investigations by AGS to progress before settling.

This chapter compares initial crime detection rates for 2022 and 2023 and charts how the detection rates for 2022 have changed a year on from the initial measure.

Overall, the initial crime detection rates for 2023 were at or above the initial 2022 rates for more than half of the crime offence groups. However, when the initial detection rates for crimes reported in 2022 were updated a year later, there were more notable increases in detection rates for some offence groups such as Kidnapping & Related offences, Homicide & Related offences, Sexual offences, and Controlled Drugs offences.

Crime detection rates for 2023 were equal to or above 2022 levels for more than half of the crime offence groups

The data shows that:

  • The initial crime detection rate in 2023 was higher than those in 2022 for four of the fourteen crime offence groups. The largest difference was for Homicide & Related offences where the initial detection rate in 2023 at 82% was 8 percentage points higher than in 2022. Others included Kidnapping & Related offences (33%, +4 percentage points), Burglary & Related offences (22%, +2 percentage points), and Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime (63%, +2 percentage points).
  • The initial crime detection rate was the same in 2022 and 2023 for a further four crime offence groups. These included Theft & Related offences (31%), Fraud, Deception & Related offences (8%), Weapons & Explosives offences (71%) and Damage to Property & to the Environment (20%).
  • The initial detection rate in 2023 was lower than in 2022 for all other crime offence groups. Controlled Drugs offences (-4 percentage points), Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences (-3 percentage points), and Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences (-3 percentage points) showed the biggest difference between both periods. See Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1.
X-axis label20222023
01 Homicide offences7482
02 Sexual offences98
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences3128
06 Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences2623
07 Burglary & Related offences2022
08 Theft & Related offences3131
09 Fraud, Deception & Related offences88
10 Controlled Drug offences8379
12 Damage to Property & to the Environment2020
13 Public Order & other Social Code offences8382
Table 2.1 Crime incident detection rates1 and percentage point change for crimes reported in 2022 and 2023, classified by crime offence group
 Crime incident detection rate (%)Percentage point change
ICCS Offence Group2022 Initial 22023 Initial 3
01 Homicide & Related offences74828
02 Sexual offences98-1
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences3128-3
04 Dangerous or Negligent Acts8684-2
05 Kidnapping & Related offences29334
06 Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences 2623-3
07 Burglary & Related offences20222
08 Theft & Related offences31310
09 Fraud, Deception & Related offences880
10 Controlled Drug offences8379-4
11 Weapons & Explosives offences71710
12 Damage to Property & to the Environment20200
13 Public Order & Other Social Code offences8382-1
15 Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime 61632
1 Crime incident detection rate is the number of detected incidents divided by the number of recorded incidents. A detected incident means at least one suspected offender has been sanctioned.
2 Measure based on data extracted 8 months following end of reference year, as published in Recorded Crime Detection 2022.
3 Measure based on data extracted 8 months following end of reference year, data extracted 2nd September 2024.

Detection rates for most crimes reported in 2022 increased over the year

The data shows that the detection rate for crimes reported in 2022 increased for 11 out of the 14 crime offence groups in the twelve months to September 2024. The most significant among these were:

  • Kidnapping & Related offences, where the detection rate was up by 11 percentage points to 40% by September 2024.
  • Homicide & Related offences where the detection rate was 84% in September 2024 up 10 percentage points from 12 months earlier.
  • Sexual offences where the detection rate increased by 7 percentage points to 16% in September 2024.
  • The detection rate for Controlled Drugs offences was 89% in September 2024 an increase of 6 percentage points on 12 months earlier.

Of the crime offence groups where the detection rate did not increase over the year, Dangerous or Negligent Acts (86%) and Public Order & Other Social Code offences (83%) remained the same while the detection rate for Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime fell from 61% to 58%. See Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 Crime incident detection rates for crimes reported in 2022 and 2023, classified by crime offence group

Earlier reporting periods in general tended to have higher detection rates for most crime

Crime incident detection rates for most crime offence groups, tend to increase over time and so are higher for older reference periods, as more investigations are completed, before settling.

This was the case for crime incidents for most offence groups reported in 2022 and 2023.

Figure 2.2 and Table 2.3 below compares the measured detection rate for incidents reported on a quarterly basis in 2022 and 2023, based on data extracted on 2 September 2024.

In particular:

  • Sexual offences – 18% detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2022 compared with a 12% detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2023.
  • Kidnapping & Related offences – 41% detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2022 compared with 32% for those reported in Q1 2023.
  • Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences where the detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2022 was 34% compared with 27% for Q1 2023.
  • Attempts/Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences – 34% detection rate for Q1 2022 compared with 30% for Q1 2023.

There were some exceptions however and these included

  • Fraud, Deception & Related offences where the detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2022 was 8% compared to 12% for Q1 2023.
  • Homicide & Related offences – a detection rate of 90% in Q1 2022 compared to 93% for Q1 2023. See Table 2.3 and Figure 2.2.
Figure 2.2 Crime incident detection rates for crimes reported in 2022 and 2023 by selected offence group and by quarter

Data extracted 2nd September 2024.

Table 2.3 Crime incident detection rates for crimes reported in 2022 and 2023, classified by offence group and quarter