Recorded Crime Detection 2020

Recorded Crime Detection statistics published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) provide a snapshot of the extent to which crime incidents reported to An Garda Síochána (AGS) have been detected. A crime may be marked as detected when AGS have identified at least one person responsible for committing the offence and that person has been issued a charge or summons, a formal or informal caution, or a fixed payment notice. There are some limited circumstances where a detection is permitted even though no person has been sanctioned in this way. The rules which govern when an incident may be marked as detected by AGS are set out in the Guide to How Crime is Recorded and Counted by An Garda Síochána (PDF 959KB) document.

Recorded Crime Detection 2020 is the third annual publication of statistics on crime detection since AGS introduced new data governance controls targeted at improving data quality in the recording of detections in 2018. The implementation of these controls supports more reliable statistical outputs, but also marks a break in series for measuring crime detection rates in Ireland. Detection rates for time periods prior to 2018 are not comparable with figures published since. Indeed, the timing of the changes (25^th February 2018) mean that data for reference year 2018 includes a portion of the year where the old system was still in use. Statistical users should consider this when comparing 2018 with subsequent years.

Detection and related statistics are based on data recorded by AGS on its PULSE (Police Using Leading Systems Effectively) and FCPS (Fixed Charge Processing System) databases. Details on how the statistics are compiled are provided in Background Notes. Statistics compiled for this publication are based on data extracted from PULSE on 2^nd September 2021, and from FCPS on 14^th October 2021.

Crime incidents may remain ‘not detected’ in a variety of scenarios, including where no suspect has been identified, where a suspect has been identified but there is insufficient evidence to support prosecution, or where a victim does not support further action. The time gap between an offence being reported and a crime incident being detected is influenced by a variety of factors (e.g. gathering evidence, awaiting laboratory results, awaiting direction for prosecution), and can vary by type of crime. The crime incident detection rate, i.e. the number of detected incidents divided by the total number of recorded incidents, for a reference period tends to increase for a time, as more investigations are completed, before settling.

Initial measurement of detection rates for a reference year made by the CSO is carried out based on data extracted from PULSE eight months following the end of the year. The gap of eight months is selected to balance the need for timely publication of statistics with the need to allow time for criminal investigations to reach conclusion and for detection rates to begin to settle. Updated detection rates for previous reference years are based on latest available data.

When a person is issued a charge or summons, caution or fixed payment notice in respect of a crime, the person is termed the ‘suspected offender’. Statistics relating to the age and sex of suspected offenders of recorded crimes, which are normally published at a later stage in conjunction with statistics relating to victims, have been brought forward and are published here, to provide more timely statistics for users. The range of crime types for which statistics on suspected offenders are provided has also been extended in this publication in response to user demand.

Since March 2018, the CSO has applied a categorisation of ‘Statistics Under Reservation’ to Recorded Crime statistics, including detection statistics, to inform users that:

• the CSO has concerns about the quality of the data source
• statistics compiled from the source may understate or overstate the actual occurrence of reported crime
• statistics may be subject to revision in subsequent publications

Users should note when considering crime trends the varying COVID-19 restrictions in place for much of 2020 and the likely impact of such restrictions on levels of crime.

• The measured detection rates for crimes reported in 2020 vary considerably across different crime types. The highest detection rates for crimes reported in 2020, as measured on 2^nd September 2021, was in Group 04 (Dangerous or negligent acts), where more than five of every six recorded crimes were detected (87.2%), and the lowest was in Group 02 (Sexual offences), where one in ten crimes were detected (10.3%). More than four out of five (82.1%) Homicide offences (Group 01) in 2020 had been detected. See Table 1.1
• Detection rates for crimes reported in 2020 increased across many crime types when compared to the initial detection rates for crimes reported in 2019 (as measured a year ago), for example in Group 03 (Attempts/threats to murder, assaults, harassments and related offences) where 37.7% of 2020 crimes had been detected, an increase of 4.7 percentage points on the comparable figure for 2019 crimes; in Group 06 (Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences) where 31% were detected, up 4.7 percentage points; in Group 07 (Burglary and related offences) where 22.4% had been detected, up 7.8 percentage points; and in Group 12 (Damage to property and to the environment) where 24.1% were detected, up 3.7 percentage points. See Table 1.1. A more detailed breakdown of detection rates by crime offence type is provided in Table 3.1.
• Updated detection rates for crimes reported in 2019 are also included in Table 1.1, and are based on latest available data. The detection rate for Group 02 (Sexual offences) reported in 2019 had risen to one in five (20.2%) based on the latest available data, compared to just over one in ten (12%) when measured a year ago, which reflects the number of such crime incidents which have been detected between September 2020 and September 2021. The detection rate for Group 01 (Homicide offences) increased from 65.5% to 74.2%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points. By contrast, the increase in detection rates for crimes including burglary, theft, criminal damage and public order, reported in 2019, increased by less than two percentage points in the year to the beginning of September 2021, indicating perhaps the reduced likelihood of detecting these types of crime as time goes on. See Table 1.1