Following the publication of the fifth Review of the Quality of Crime Statistics in October 2023, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has lifted the 'Under Reservation' categorisation around Recorded Crime Statistics. This is possible because An Garda Síochána have introduced a range of quality measures over the last number of years which have resulted in sustained improvement in the quality of the underlying crime data. These changes give a level of assurance to users that they can rely on Recorded Crime Statistics.
For further information see our Lifting of Under Reservation categorisation for Recorded Crime Statistics FAQ page.
Just over one-quarter (27%) of offenders who received a probation order in 2020 re-offended within a year, a rise of 2% when compared with the equivalent rate for 2019 (25%).
Over one-third (37%) of adult males aged under 25 years who received probation orders in 2020 re-offended within a year of receiving probation. In comparison, one-quarter (25%) of young adult females re-offended during the same period.
There were increases between 2019 and 2020 in the re-offending rate of people serving probation for offences related to Assault (+5%), Controlled Drug (+4%), and Road & Traffic (+4%) related offences.
Regionally, the highest level of re-offending (31%) involved probationers from the South-West (Cork and Kerry) region. In the Dublin region, where the highest number of probationers lived (1,058 of 3,478), 27% of probationers re-offended within a year.
The highest number of probation orders were issued in 2020 to people who committed offences related to Controlled Drug offences (605 of 3,478). Just over one-fifth (23%) of these people were convicted of a re-offence within a year of receiving their probation.
Just under two-thirds (65%) of the re-offending by people who received a probation order in 2020 took place in just three of the sixteen offence categories: Public Order (28%), Controlled Drug (21%), and Theft (16%).
During a longer period (three-years) after receiving a probation order in 2018, almost half (45%) of people committed at least one offence for which they received a conviction.
On 29 Nov at 11.45am shortly after publish, a revision was made to the statistics relating to re-offending within three years. The sentence in this paragraph originally stated: 'This was two percentage points up on 2017 (47%) and six percentage points less than 2008 levels when the three-year re-offending rate was more than half (55%)'. This has been revised to: 'This was two percentage points down on 2017 (47%) and 10 percentage points less than 2008 levels when the three-year re-offending rate was more than half (55%).'
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The Probation Re-offending Statistics release provides information on the level of recorded re-offending by people placed under the management of the Probation Service. The information in this release primarily relates to people who entered Probation Service supervision in 20201.
The probation re-offending rate is the percentage of people issued with a probation order during a reference year who were convicted of any crime incident that occurred within one, two, or three years of the date of their probation sentence. The resulting conviction relating to the incident must then be obtained within two years of the date when the incident was recorded.
For example, Figure 1.1 below shows the time periods and process of establishing these re-offending indicators for the probation re-offending of people who received their probation order in 2018 (three-year re-offending), 2019 (two-year re-offending), and 2020 (one-year re-offending). The three-year re-offending period refers to people who received Probation Orders in 2018. The time period for a re-offence to occur is three-years (2018 to 2021) and a further two-years are left for court decisions (convictions/acquittals) to take place. The one-year re-offending period relates to people who received Probation Orders in 2020. The time period for a re-offence to occur is one-year (2021) and a further year is left for court decisions (convictions/acquittals) to take place.
1 To provide the timeliest measures of re-offending, statistics relating to one-year measures of re-offending for individuals who received probation orders in 2020 are mainly focused on in this release, allowing the analysis to come forward to cover the most recent data available (one year for re-offence from 2020 and a further two years allowed for any resulting court conviction).
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 November 2024) published Probation Re-offending Statistics 2020.
Commenting on the release, Felix Coleman, Statistician in the Crime and Criminal Justice Division, said: "Today’s release provides annual estimates of the re-offending rates for probationers who received probation orders up to and including 2020. Additional insights are also provided in relation to the re-offenders age, sex, offence, and re-offence types. The most recent reference year included in this release is 2020 because a minimum of three years is needed to establish a re-offending rate: one year for potential re-offences to take place, and two years for re-conviction.
Probation Orders Issued in 2020
Data provided by the Probation Service indicates there were on average significantly less Probation orders (-35%) issued in 2020 when compared with studies from previous years. This was due to the national measures taken in relation to COVID-19 during the reference period.
Re-Offending Rates
Overall, probation re-offending estimates indicated a slight increase in re-offending by probationers between those that received a probation order between 2019 and 2020, although the one-year re-offending rate for 2020 (27%) was the second lowest re-offending rate measured since 2008 when the first estimates of probation re-offending were calculated. The year-on-year increase in re-offending between 2019 and 2020 was mostly due to a rise in the re-offending of people who received probation for offences relating to Controlled Drug (23%) or Road Traffic (22%) related offences. In both these groups, there was a four percentage point increase in the re-offending rate compared with 2019. The analysis also shows that the re-offending levels amongst adult males under the age of 25 years (37%) remains significantly higher than the equivalent rate for adult females (25%) of the same age.
Please see Probation Re-offending Statistics 2019 for further information on the statistics relating to re-offending by people who received probation during 2019.
Re-Offending Within One Year
The highest levels of re-offending for those who received probation in 2020 was among young adults. Almost four in ten (37%) of males and a quarter (25%) of females under the age of 25 years re-offended within a year. In contrast, 15% of males aged 45 to 64 years and one-fifth (21%) of females aged 45 years and over re-offended in the same period after receiving probation, although this age group accounted for just 484 (14%) of the total 3,478 people who received probation during 2020 and who were included in the study.
Re-Offending Within Three Years
The three-year probation re-offending estimates provide a more comprehensive estimate of the levels of re-offending. To calculate this rate, the CSO needs a minimum of three years to establish a re-offending incident and a further two years to allow for the associated court conviction to elapse. In 2018, almost half (45%) of probationers re-offended within three years of receiving their probation order. This was two percentage points down on 2017 (47%) and 10 percentage points less than 2008 levels when the three-year re-offending rate was more than half (55%).
Regional Differences
There was a significant difference in the re-offending rates regionally ranging from just over a fifth (21%) in the West (consisting of Galway, Mayo, and Roscommon) and the Midlands (Laois, Longford, Offaly, and Westmeath), to almost a third (31%) in the South-West region ( Cork and Kerry). At county level, Donegal (10%) and Wicklow (12%) had the lowest one-year re-offending rate while Monaghan (35%) had the highest re-offending levels among people who were issued with probation in 2020."