Probation Re-offending Statistics 2019

Young male adults re-offending declined in 2019

Estimates covering probation related re-offending for persons who received probation orders in 2019 indicate a six percentage points decline in the annual re-offending rate of males under the age of 25 between 2018 and 2019. In comparison the re-offending rates for males aged between 25 and 44 also decreased but by a smaller degree (2%).  The estimates for female re-offending indicate rates increased between 2018 and 2019 in young adult females (under 25’s) by six percentage points. In comparison the re-offending rate for older females aged 25 to 44 fell by three percentage points over the same period. See Figure 2.1 and Table 2.1.

Persons issued with probation for offences linked to Public Order in 2019 tended to re-offend the most

In 2019, persons that received probation orders relating to Public Order offences had the highest likelihood of re-offending, with over one third of them doing so (34%). This category includes probation orders issued in relation to:

• Drunken behaviour
• The provision of intoxicating alcohol for under 18’s.  
• Violent disorder (Affray, Riot)

The largest number of probation orders issued by the courts in 2019 were linked to referrals for Road and Traffic or Theft related orders. These two categories accounted for just over one third of all the probation orders issued (1,917 out of 5,644). In these two categories, the one year re-offending rates for 2019 was 33% for Theft and 18% for Road and Traffic related probation. See Table 2.1 and Figure 2.2.

Persons who received Post Release Supervision Orders were the least likely to re-offend

The Probation Re-Offending Statistics includes persons who received three broad types of court sanctions, Post Release Supervision Orders, Probation Orders or Community Service Orders depending on the circumstances of their cases. Out of the three types, persons linked with a Post Release Supervision Order (15%) in 2019 were the least likely to re-offend. Post Release Supervision means that an offender is monitored when they are released from prison in order to comply with the conditions set out by their court outcome. Persons who received a Probation Order (28%) in 2019 were most likely to re-offend within a year. See Table 2.1 and Figure 2.3.

Mayo and Roscommon continue to have the lowest one-year re-offending rates

Mayo (12%) and Roscommon (11%) continue to be the two counties with the lowest one-year re-offending rates at NUTS 3 level in 2019. The West (18%) (which contains Galway in addition to Mayo and Roscommon) also had the lowest regional levels of re-offending although this region contained just 382 of the total 5,644 persons issued with probation orders in 2019 (7%). The South-West, consisting of counties Cork and Kerry, had the highest level (29%) of one-year re-offending from persons who received probation in 2019. In Dublin, where the highest number of persons linked to probation were based (35%), just under one quarter (23%) of persons who received a probation order re-offended within a year. See Map 2.1 and Table 2.2.

Most re-offending takes place in the 6 months following the Probation Order

• Just over two-thirds (69%) of persons who received a probation order in 2019 and who re-offended within one year did so in the first six months.
• Earlier re-offending (within 6 months of probation) was slightly higher for young adult females under the age of 25 (77%) than males (69%) although in 2019 the number of young adult males (1,126) linked to probation orders remained significantly more than females of the same age (197). See Figure 2.4 and Table 2.3.

Most re-offending linked to Public Order related offences

Persons that re-offended within a year of receiving their probation orders in 2019 were most likely to carry out a re-offence related to Public Order & Other Social Codes offences, with a quarter (25%) of re-offending occurring in this offence category. This offence category includes threatening or abusive behaviour, disorderly conduct or failing to comply with the direction of An Garda Síochána. In contrast, re-offending linked to re-offences related to Homicide, Sexual or Kidnapping related offence categories was zero percent (less than half a percent). See Figure 2.5 and Table 2.4.

Re-offenders linked with Robbery or Offences against Government were most likely to receive a custodial sanction for their re-offence

• Overall, just over one fifth (22%) of re-offences that took place within a year of probation resulted in a custodial sanction being issued by the courts.
• The re-offences related to Robbery (55%) and Offences against Government (42%) were the most likely to result in a custodial sanction.
• Road and Traffic offences (9%) were less likely to result in a custodial sanction. See Figure 2.6 and Table 2.5.

Younger adults most likely to commit Public Order related re-offences

• One quarter (25%) of the re-offending that takes place within a year of probation by adults under 25 takes place in offences related to Public Order & Other Social Codes.
• Theft (18%) and Controlled Drug offences (16%) are the 2^nd and 3^rd most frequent re-offending offence types in young adults who re-offended within a year of receiving a probation order. See Table 2.6.