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Reoffending rates by individuals in the 2013 Probation Cohort are analysed in this chapter. Table 6.1 provides an analysis of rates by age, gender, probation type and referral offence. The data shows that 45.3% of people in the group committed a crime for which they were subsequently convicted within 3 years of the date of their Probation, Community Service or Post Release Supervision Order.
Males were more likely to reoffend than females with 45.9% doing so compared to 41% of females. This differential has decreased over time. It is higher than that for the 2015 cohort but lower than that for cohorts analysed in previous publications with the gender gap exceeding 13 percentage points for the 2009 and 2010 cohorts.
As was the case with the 2014 and 2015 cohorts there is a noteworthy difference in the reoffending rates for different age groups. Those aged under 18 were two and half times more likely to reoffend that those aged between 45 and 64 and over three times more likely to reoffend than those aged over 65. The respective rates are 71.8%, 28.1% and 22.2%.
| Age group | Reoffending rate |
|---|---|
| <18 | 71.8 |
| 18-24 | 54.8 |
| 25-44 | 39.9 |
| 45-64 | 28.1 |
| 65 + | 22.2 |
The rate of reoffending also varies significantly depending on the referral offence. The reoffending rate exceeded 50% for six of the sixteen offence types with Burglary and Related offences showing the highest rate at 54.9%. The lowest rate of reoffending was by people sentenced for Sexual offences (5.5%). See Fig 6.2.
| Sexual offences | Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences | Burglary and related offences | Dangerous or negligent acts | Theft and related offences | Controlled drug offences | Public order and other social code offences | Road and traffic offences | |
| Probation referral offence | 6.2 | 42.5 | 54.9 | 36.2 | 54.7 | 35.9 | 51.6 | 31.1 |
Table 6.2 gives a breakdown of the time period to the first reoffence for all reoffenders. A total of 60.8% of people who reoffend do so within one year of the date of their order (41% in the first six months and 19.8% within 6-12 months). See Fig 6.3.
| 2013 | |
| < 6 months | 41 |
| 6 < 12 months | 19.8 |
| 12 < 18 months | 12.8 |
| 18 < 24 months | 10.8 |
| 24 < 30 months | 8.8 |
| 30 < 36 months | 6.8 |
Those aged under 18 are more likely to reoffend quickly with almost half (49.1%) of first reoffences for this group taking place within 6 months of their order date. Individuals subject to a Post Release Supervision Order were less likely to reoffend quickly than those serving a Probation or Community Service Order. Only 22% reoffended within 6 months compared to 45.7% and 37.8% respectively.
Table 6.3 provides a breakdown of the offences committed by reoffenders, broken down by their referral offence for the 2013 cohort. In many instances the numbers are very low. These instances are marked with an asterisk to avoid the identification of individuals. The table relates to the first offence committed by the reoffender after being sentenced to a Probation, Post Release Supervision or Community Service Order.
The analysis indicates that in the case of Theft, Drug and Public Order offences the first reoffence committed by reoffenders is more likely to be the same as the one for which they were sentenced in the first instance. Of those sentenced for Theft offences, 207 (41.4%) individuals were subsequently convicted of another Theft offence with 103 (20.6%) of the remainder convicted of Public Order offences.
With regard to Public Order offences, 49.6% (173) of individuals originally sentenced for these crimes received a subsequent conviction for the same offence type. Public Order offences are also the most common first reoffence of individuals sentenced in relation to Assaults (37.8%), Burglary (28.4%) and Damage to Property (38.9%) offences.
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