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Probation Recidivism 2011 and 2012 Cohorts

Additional Statistical Tables

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The majority (63.1%) of those who reoffended did so within 12 months of the commencement of their order

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Table 3.1 includes a comparison of the rates of recidivism for different referral offences. It is important to note that those convicted for very serious offences such as homicide offences and sexual offences are likely to receive a custodial sentence. As a consequence, they are not likely to be included in the Probation cohort. The percentage of individuals who reoffend is highest for those who are sentenced to probation for robbery, burglary, theft, damage to property and public order offences. With the exception of burglary and theft where the rates were 50% and 54.1% respectively for the 2011 cohort, the recidivism rate exceeds 55% for all five categories for both the 2012 and the 2011 cohorts.

Those sentenced for sexual offences and fraud offences were least likely to reoffend with rates of 17.2% for those convicted of a sexual offence and 25.3% convicted of a fraud offence in the 2012 cohort. The corresponding figures for the 2011 cohort were 22.7% and 22.9%. However, the number of individuals in these offence groups are small so it is necessary to exercise caution when interpreting these rates.

Table 3.1 Offender numbers classified by sex, age group, probation type, probation referral offence and whether there was a re-offence within three years, 2011 and 2012 cohort

Table 3.1 Offender numbers classified by sex, age group, probation type, probation referral offence and whether there was a reoffence within three years, 2011 and 2012 cohort
	2011				2012
	Reoffence within three years			Recidivism¹ rate	Reoffence within three years			Recidivism¹ rate
	Yes	No	Total	%	Yes	No	Total	%

Total offenders	2,184	2,479	4,663	46.8	2,039	2,311	4,350	46.9

Sex
Male	1,953	2,140	4,093	47.7	1,801	1,993	3,794	47.5
Female	231	339	570	40.5	238	318	556	42.8

Male age group
<18	148	52	200	74.0	136	50	186	73.1
18-24	944	791	1,735	54.4	841	659	1,500	56.1
25-44	778	1,136	1,914	40.6	748	1,122	1,870	40.0
45-64	80	155	235	34.0	73	154	227	32.2
65 +	3	6	9	33.3	3	8	11	27.3

Female age group
<18	9	14	23	39.1	7	9	16	43.8
18-24	103	100	203	50.7	81	114	195	41.5
25-44	108	191	299	36.1	135	177	312	43.3
45+	11	34	45	24.4	15	18	33	45.5

All persons age group
<18	157	66	223	70.4	143	59	202	70.8
18-24	1,047	891	1,938	54.0	922	773	1,695	54.4
25-44	886	1,327	2,213	40.0	883	1,299	2,182	40.5
45-64	91	188	279	32.6	87	172	259	33.6
65 +	3	7	10	30.0	4	8	12	33.3

Probation type
Community service	1,077	1,371	2,448	44.0	997	1,361	2,358	42.3
Probation order	1,107	1,108	2,215	50.0	1,042	950	1,992	52.3

Probation referral offence
02 Sexual offences	10	34	44	22.7	5	24	29	17.2
03 Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	224	309	533	42.0	219	339	558	39.2
04 Dangerous or negligent acts	82	174	256	32.0	96	173	269	35.7
05 Kidnapping and related offences	0	0	0	0.0	2	0	2	100.0
06 Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences	55	55	110	50.0	63	51	114	55.3
07 Burglary and related offences	186	130	316	58.9	182	145	327	55.7
08 Theft and related offences	406	345	751	54.1	471	343	814	57.9
09 Fraud, deception and related offences	22	74	96	22.9	19	56	75	25.3
10 Controlled drug offences	263	443	706	37.3	214	396	610	35.1
11 Weapons and explosives offences	53	55	108	49.1	67	60	127	52.8
12 Damage to property and to the environment	181	134	315	57.5	143	97	240	59.6
13 Public order and other social code offences	475	369	844	56.3	385	298	683	56.4
14 Road and traffic offences	151	293	444	34.0	103	257	360	28.6
15 Offences against Government, justice procedures and organisation of crime	67	55	122	54.9	61	56	117	52.1
1, 16 Homicide, Offences not elsewhere classified or not stated²	8	10	18	44.4	9	16	25	36.0
¹ See background notes
² Due to the small number of individuals in some sub-groups, in some instances it was necessary to combine groups in order to adhere to CSO confidentiality policy

Open in Excel: Table 3.1 Offender numbers classified by sex, age group, probation type, probation referral offence and whether there was a re-offence within three years, 2011-2012 cohort (XLS 14KB)

	Attempts/Threats to Murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	Burglary and related offences	Dangerous or negligent acts	Theft and related offences	Controlled drug offences	Public order and other social code offences	Road and traffic offences
Probation referral offence	39.2	55.7	35.7	57.9	35.1	56.4	28.6

Table 3.2 provides a breakdown of the offences committed by recidivists, broken down by their referral offence for 2012. In many instances the numbers are very low. These instances are marked with an asterisk to avoid the identification of individuals. The table relates to the first offence committed by the recidivist after being sentenced to a probation or community service order.

The analysis indicates that recidivists are most likely to commit an offence that is the same as the one for which they were sentenced in the first instance. In the case of those sentenced for theft offences 197 (41.8%) of individuals were subsequently convicted of another theft offence. Of those remaining, 104 (22%) were convicted of public order offences.

With regard to public order offences, 51.9% (200) of individuals originally sentenced for these crimes received a subsequent conviction for the same offence type. Those sentenced for attempts/threats to murder, assaults and related offences are an exception. In 36.5% (80) of cases these offenders received a subsequent conviction for public order offences.

Table 3.2 Re-offender numbers classified by probation referral offence and subsequent re-offence, 2012 cohort

Table 3.3 analyses the time period to the first reoffence for recidivists in the 2012 cohort. On 63.1% of occasions the individuals reoffended within 12 months of the date of their probation or community service orders, with 42.3% doing so within 6 months. This trend does not vary according to gender or probation type. Those aged under 25 have are more likely to reoffend within 6 months, with almost 45% doing so.

Table 3.3 Re-offender numbers classified by time period to first re-offence, sex, age group and probation type, 2012 cohort

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Table 3.3 Reoffender numbers classified by time period to first reoffence, sex, age group and probation type, 2012 cohort
	Time period to first reoffence
	<6 months		6<12		12<18		18<24		24<36		Total
	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%	Number	%
Total reoffenders	863	42.3	424	20.8	253	12.4	214	10.5	285	14.0	2,039	100.0

Sex
Male	763	42.4	380	21.1	216	12.0	184	10.2	258	14.3	1,801	100.0
Female	100	42.0	44	18.5	37	15.5	30	12.6	27	11.3	238	100.0

Male age group
<25 years	454	46.5	188	19.2	112	11.5	101	10.3	122	12.5	977	100.0
25-44	282	37.7	175	23.4	91	12.2	75	10.0	125	16.7	748	100.0
45-64	24	32.9	17	23.3	13	17.8	8	11.0	11	15.1	73	100.0
65+	3	100.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	3	100.0

Female age group
<25 years	37	42.0	15	17.0	13	14.8	13	14.8	10	11.4	88	100.0
25-44	59	43.7	24	17.8	22	16.3	15	11.1	15	11.1	135	100.0
45+	4	26.7	5	33.3	2	13.3	2	13.3	2	13.3	15	100.0

All persons age group
<25 years	491	46.1	203	19.1	125	11.7	114	10.7	132	12.4	1,065	100.0
25-44	341	38.6	199	22.5	113	12.8	90	10.2	140	15.9	883	100.0
45-64	27	31.0	22	25.3	15	17.2	10	11.5	13	14.9	87	100.0
65+	4	100.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0.0	4	100.0

Probation type
Community service	416	41.7	206	20.7	129	12.9	100	10.0	146	14.6	997	100.0
Probation order	447	42.9	218	20.9	124	11.9	114	10.9	139	13.3	1,042	100.0

Probation Recidivism 2011 and 2012 Cohorts

Additional Statistical Tables

Statistics Under Reservation

The majority (63.1%) of those who reoffended did so within 12 months of the commencement of their order

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Table 3.2 Reoffender numbers classified by probation referral offence and subsequent reoffence, 2012 cohort
	Subsequent reoffence¹
	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	15	Total
Total reoffenders	0	2	84	146	2	42	117	451	23	296	50	89	666	71	2,039

Probation referral offence
01 Homicide offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	0
02 Sexual offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	5
03 Attempts/Threats to murder, assaults, harassments and related offences	*	*	23	17	*	4	8	34	*	24	9	11	80	7	219
04 Dangerous or negligent acts	*	*	3	14	*	3	4	16	*	16	*	*	33	4	96
05 Kidnapping and related offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	2
06 Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences	*	*	*	*	*	3	6	13	*	9	*	*	20	5	63
07 Burglary and related offences	*	*	7	7	*	5	27	47	*	21	*	7	50	5	182
08 Theft and related offences	*	*	8	25	*	13	29	197	9	47	8	15	104	16	471
09 Fraud, deception and related offences	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	4	*	*	*	*	2	4	19
10 Controlled drug offences	*	*	*	16	*	3	12	31	*	85	4	9	48	*	214
11 Weapons and explosives offences	*	*	5	8	*	3	*	9	*	9	*	6	21	*	67
12 Damage to property and to the environment	*	*	5	14	*	2	7	24	*	16	*	9	56	4	143
13 Public order and other social code offences	*	*	20	22	*	4	12	47	*	37	13	18	200	9	385
14 Road and traffic offences (NEC)	*	*	3	15	*	*	9	18	*	22	*	7	20	6	103
15 & 16 Offences against Government, justice procedures and organisation
of crime and offences not elsewhere classified	*	*	3	*	*	2	*	11	*	5	*	*	30	7	70
¹ Please see probation referral offence column for description of offence type.
Note: Please be advised that * is used when the figure is zero or the figure cannot be published because of confidentiality reasons.