The usually resident population estimate based on Census 2022 was 5,183,966 persons and this is projected to grow significantly under the three projection scenarios to 2057. Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1 illustrate the projected population at 5 year intervals for the three scenarios from 2022 - 2057.
The largest change is projected for the high net migration scenario, M1, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022 and decreases incrementally to +45,000 per annum by 2027 and remains at this level to 2057. Under this scenario the population is projected to grow by 1,821,478 (+35.1%) over the 35 year period to 2057, to 7.01 million people.
The more moderate net migration M2 scenario, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022 and decreases incrementally to +30,000 persons per annum by 2032 and remains at this level to 2057, shows a population increase of 1,262,297 (+24.4%) over the period to 6.45 million people.
Under the low net migration scenario, M3, where annual net migration starts at +75,000 persons in 2022 and decreases incrementally to +10,000 persons per annum by 2032 and remains at this level to 2057, the population is only expected to increase by 549,685 (+10.6%) to 5.73 million people in 2057.
Table 2.2 illustrates how both net migration and natural increase (i.e. births less deaths) both play important roles in the population change to 2057. Net migration tends to be the more important component in the high migration scenarios. For example under the M1 variant, the population is projected to increase by 1,821,500 by 2057 with 90.9% of this increase is due to net inward migration and 9.1% due to natural increase. Under the M2 variant, which encompasses moderately high net migration, 93.1% of the increase is due to net inward migration and 6.9% natural increase.
Under the low net migration scenario, M3, the affects of the declining fertility rate becomes more apparent. In this scenario the population will increase by 549,600 to 2057. One component of this change is the total projected net inward migration of 565,000 from 2023 to 2057. The other component is an overall natural decrease of 15,400 in the population (i.e. more deaths than births over the period 2023 to 2057).
The projected number of births, deaths and net migration under each of the three scenarios are set out for five year periods from 2022 - 2057 in table 2.3. This table also contains comparable historical intercensal data from 1926 onwards in order to facilitate historical comparisons.
Annual average births are projected to experience periods of decline under all three scenarios. This is a consequence of the projected lower total fertility rate (TFR) that we have been observing over the last number of years. For the intercensal period 2016-2022 there was an annual average of 59,014 births (using registration data). Under M1 (the high net migration scenario) annual births are projected to fall to around 55,570 persons during 2022 to 2027 and continue to decline until 2038. An increase in births is projected from 2038 to 2046, this is due to fall again from 2047 reaching an average annual figure of 52,828 by 2052 to 2057. Similar trends can be seen with both other scenarios, M2 and M3, where average annual birth figures are expected to fall in the long term, reaching 47,712 and 40,926 respectively by 2052 to 2057. Figure 2.2 graphs the projected births for each year from 2023 - 2057 for the chosen assumptions.
The average annual numbers of deaths are projected to increase steadily under all scenarios from an annual average of 32,417 in the 2016 to 2022 intercensal period to between 61,466 and 64,601 by the 2052 - 2057 intercensal period, depending on the scenario chosen. Figure 2.3 graphs the projected deaths for the three scenarios.
In the six years to 2022 the natural increase in the population (i.e. the excess of births over deaths) was 27,900 persons. By 2057 this is expected to have turned into a natural decrease in the population (i.e. an excess of deaths over births). Under the high net migration M1 scenario the natural increase is projected to be 18,600 in the five years to 2027, falling to a natural decrease for the first time, of 3,900 in the 2047 - 2052 intercensal period. For the low net migration scenario, M3, the natural increase is projected to be 18,100 in the five years to 2027 and will fall at a quicker pace to reach a natural decrease of 20,500 by the 2052 - 2057 period.
During the period 2016 - 2022, annual net migration was 41,000 (i.e. an average of 41,000 more persons arrived into the country than left each year). This is a large increase of the previous intercensal period, 2011 - 2016, where annual net migration was -6,200 (i.e. an average of 6,200 more persons left the country than arrived).
In the high net migration scenario, M1, this is projected to be a net inward migration which will start in the 70,000's based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 45,000 people on average by 2028. Similarly for the moderate net migration scenario, M2, there is projected to be a net inward migration which will start in the 70,000's based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 30,000 people on average by 2032. Lastly for the low net migration scenario, M3, again there is projected to be a net inward migration which will start in the 70,000's based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 10,000 people on average by 2032.
Table 2.4 shows the population results by broad age groups under the three scenarios at five-year intervals between 2022 - 2057. It also distinguishes the derived young and old dependency ratios as well as the population of school-going age.
The usual resident population estimate based off Census 2022 showed that there were 1,014,300 persons aged 0-14 years. Under the high net migration scenario M1 the population aged 0 - 14 is projected to decline from 2022 levels to 859,400 persons by 2042. Post 2042 the average annual numbers of births are projected to rise steadily at a slow rate, leading to 875,300 persons aged 0 - 14 by 2057. Overall this represents an decrease of 13.7% by 2057 from 2022 levels.
Using the medium net migration scenario, M2, the number of persons aged 0-14 is projected to decline to 792,600 by 2057. This represents a decrease of 21.9% on 2022 levels. Finally under the low net migration scenario, M3, the young population would decline to 686,400 over the 35 year period.
For the purpose of this projections exercise the primary school population is broadly represented by those aged 5-12 years of age. In 2022 there were 569,700 children in this age group. This number is projected to decrease significantly, by between 84,300 and 99,000 to 2032, depending on the scenario chosen. The fall in births since 2010 is expected to impact negatively on the number of primary school children under all combinations of assumptions. However, the rate of decline is dependent on the assumption chosen. Figure 2.6 shows the projected number of primary school pupils for selected years from 2022 - 2057.
The number of children of secondary school age (i.e. persons aged 13-18 years) in 2022 was 421,500. This number is projected to increase over the time period to 2032 and decrease thereafter in all scenarios. The rate of decline is dependent on the assumption chosen. By 2057 there will be an estimate of between 44,000 and 121,600 less secondary school students that in 2022. Figure 2.7 shows the projected number of secondary school pupils for selected years from 2022 - 2057.
The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64. In 2022 there were 3,388,200 persons in this age category, equating to 65.4% of the total population of 5,184,000. While the size of this population group will rise under most scenarios by 2057, its relative share of the total population is set to decrease.
The M1 scenario projects that while the working age population will increase to 4,185,800 (an increase of 23.5%) by 2057, its overall share of the population of 7,005,400 will have declined by over 5 percentage points to 59.8%. The M2 scenario shows that the working age population will increase to 3,774,100 by 2057 (11.4%) but its overall share of the population will have declined from 65.4% in 2022 to 58.5% by 2057. Under the M3 scenario the working age population is projected to decrease slightly, by just 150,400 (-4.4%) to 3,237,800 persons by 2057. Its overall share of the population of 5,733,700 will have declined by nearly 9 percentage points to 56.5%.
The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2022 level under all three projection scenarios. Under the M1 scenario, the 2022 older population of 781,400 persons will grow to over 1.94 million by 2057. Similarly under the M2 and M3 scenarios it will grow to 1.88 million and 1.81 million respectively. In 2022 the older population accounted for 15.1% of the total population, this will grow to between 27.8% and 31.6% (for M1 and M3 respectively) of the total population by 2057 depending on the scenario used.
The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) is projected to fall under all assumptions by 2057. This ratio was 29.9% in 2022 and falls to between 20.9% (M1) and 21.2% in 2057 (M3). The young dependency ratio is expected to be at its lowest level in the early 2040s.
The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 23.1% in 2022. This is projected to increase steadily from 2022 onwards, rising by 2 - 7 percentage points every five years. By 2057 this ratio will have more than doubled since 2022 under each different scenario, reaching between 46.5% for the M1 scenario and 55.9% for the M3 scenario.
The two ratios combined give the total dependency ratio. In 2022 the total dependency ratio was 53.0%, meaning that there were roughly 2 people of working age for everyone aged 0-14 and 65+. This ratio is projected to rise under all scenarios to reach values of between 67.4% (M1) and 77.1% (M3) by 2057. See figure 2.8 below for the dependancy ratios changing over time.
The changing population structure is best illustrated by comparing the breakdown of the population by age and gender at five-year intervals between 2022 and 2057, see tables 2.5 - 2.7 below, and the selected population pyramids, figures 2.9 - 2.12. The pyramids highlight the changing structure of the population by 2057, in particular the increase in the number of persons aged 65 years and over.
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