There is a general consensus internationally among demographers that improvements in life expectancy will continue for the foreseeable future. The main question to be addressed therefore by the Expert Group is the rate of improvement.
The Expert Group are indebted to Dr Rabia Naqvi and Dr Linda Daly of UCC School of Mathematical Sciences, Professor Shane Whelan of UCD School of Mathematics and Statistics, Dr Mary Hall of DCU School of Mathematical Sciences and Mr Niall Quinn, of the Society of Actuaries in Ireland, for their input and expert guidance with regards to the mortality part of the projections work.
The agreed mortality assumptions are outlined below. Ireland's historical mortality trends and the methodology underpinning these assumptions are also outlined in this chapter.
Mortality rates for males and females are both assumed to improve at 2.5% per annum in the short-term to 2047.
The long-term rate of improvement is assumed to be 1.5% per annum (unchanged since the last report). The short-term rate declines linearly over a 25 year period to the long-term rate.
These rates are assumed to apply to all ages up to age 90.
These assumptions will result in gains in life expectancy from:
Ireland has witnessed significant improvements in mortality since the start of the 20th century with male life expectancy increasing from 57.4 years in 1926 to 80.2 years in 2015 (a gain of 22.8 years), while females have seen a gain of 26 years (from 57.9 to 83.9). The biggest gains in both male and female life expectancy were recorded in the immediate post-war period, i.e. 1946 - 1961. These resulted from improvements in living conditions, as well as from advances in maternity services and medical treatment, such as immunisation.
From the latter half of the 20th century, increases in life expectancy have been led by rapid reductions in adult mortality, particularly for males. Between 1991 and 2022 life expectancy at birth increased by 7.9 years for males while the increase for females over the same period was 6 years. The improvements have been most notable in the older age groups. Improved living conditions coupled with further developments in medical care are considered to be the main contributing factors.
The gap between male and female life expectancy is also continuing to decline. A woman born in 1981 was expected to live 5.5 years longer than a man born in the same year. By 2022 the gap in male and female life expectancies was estimated to have fallen to 3.7 years.
As in the previous projections, the mortality rates used in this exercise were projected using a ‘targeting’ approach. This approach involves estimating the current rate of improvement for each sex and assuming that this rate of improvement will decline over a twenty-five year period to a long-term average improvement rate not dissimilar to the rates observed in the long-term past.
A graduated life table was prepared for 2017-2019 following the same methodology as that employed for the previous projections exercise. After deliberation, the Expert Group agreed to consider the three years pre-Covid-19 for the creation of the graduated rates, as this uses three years worth of data which addresses stability and retains comparability of method with the previous projections exercises.
Analysis of these results showed a slowing of mortality improvements for both males and females. The group agreed that the 2022 - 2057 projections be compiled assuming current trends of 2.5% per annum declines in mortality rates for both males and females. This keeps the trend consistent within males and gives a 0.5% increase in the trend rate used for females in the 2016 projections.
A zero per cent improvement (i.e. no improvement) was assumed for ages of 100 years and over. For ages 91 years to 99 years, the current rate of improvement was estimated by linear interpolation between the assumed rate of improvement at age 90 years (2.5% for males and females) and the zero per cent rate of improvement at age 100 years.
As explained above, the projection methodology estimated the current average rate of mortality decline for the period 2017 to 2019 for each sex at each age. The years 2020 and 2021 were not considered due to the unprecedented fluctuations in mortality rates during the pandemic. For all years between 2022 and 2047, the mortality declines for that year at each age is a simple linear interpolation between the decline in 2022 and the assumed rate in 2047. For ages of 100 years and over, no improvements were assumed either now or in the future, while for ages between 90 years and 100 years, the rates of mortality decline were estimated by linear interpolation between the assumed rate at age 90 and 0% improvement at 100 years of age.
The Expert Group decided that an annual decline of 1.5 per cent was appropriate to apply to both sexes up to age 90 years from 2048 onwards. This rate of decline was also utilised in the previous projections exercise and is not dissimilar to the average rate of mortality decline over the long term past. For age 91 years to age 99 years, the rate of improvement was estimated by linear interpolation between the assumed rate at age 90 and 0% improvement at age 100 years. For ages of 100 years and over, no further mortality improvements are assumed.
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