Of the three factors that determine population change (births, deaths and migration) the most influential, volatile and uncertain from an Irish perspective is migration. Over the past 35 years Ireland has moved from periods of high net outward migration in the late 1980s, to periods of net inward migration in both the late 1990s through most of the 2000s. There was a dip again to net outward migration in the early 2010's. Since the late 2010's we have started gaining a net inward migration each year, this has been increased in the early 2020's with the influence of global events such at the war in Ukraine. This is illustrated in fig 6.1 where net migration trends from 1987 to 2022 can be clearly seen.
Given the difficulties associated in predicting future economic conditions, not alone in Ireland but in the wider global economy, the Expert Group considered it unwise to explicitly factor economic growth into the assumptions on migration but rather decided to outline in a more general way three different scenarios of net inward migration. The group assessed the need for a negative migration assumption but the general view was that average annual migration would tend to be positive in the longer term.
A summary of the three net inward migration assumptions agreed are outlined in the next section. The main items deliberated on prior to reaching agreement are discussed in the subsequent sections, including:
After assessing all of the issues, the group agreed on three net inward migration assumptions. each of these assumptions start with a net inward migration figure starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to 3 different figures, one for each scenario of high, medium and low net inward migration.
This is the high positive net inward scenario. This will start in 2023 with net inward migration of 75,000 based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 45,000 people by 2028. The scenario incorporates higher outward migration to 2028 with an assumption of a limited proportion of Ukrainian migrants returning home. The inward figures should encapsulate any large regular and irregular inward migration (e.g. Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTP), International Protections (IP) and Economic migrants). See Table 6.1.
Under the middle scenario of M2, net inward migration is assumed to be 75,000 in 2023 based on the recent high levels and then will taper to 30,000 people by 2032. The scenario incorporates higher outward migration to 2032 with an assumption of an increased proportion of Ukrainian migrants returning home. The inward figures should encapsulate any large regular and irregular inward migration (e.g. Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTP), International Protections (IP) and Economic migrants). See Table 6.1.
M3 is the low long-term net inward migration scenario which, once again, starts with a high positive net inward migration based on the recent high levels. This scenario will then taper to 25,000 people by 2027 and to 10,000 by 2032. The scenario incorporates higher outward migration to 2032 with an assumption of Ukrainian migrants returning home in large numbers. The inward figures should encapsulate any large regular and irregular inward migration (e.g. Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTP), International Protections (IP) and Economic migrants). See Table 6.1.
When the Expert Group examined migration flows over the last 25 years, the volatility in Ireland’s net migration is clear to see. The number of immigrants increased dramatically between 1997 and 2008 with the very sharp increases between 2005 and 2007 attributed to the accession of the ten new EU member states in May 2004. Ireland experienced sustained net inward migration over this period. There was a dramatic change in net migration from the late 2000's to the early 2010's, with a net outward migration in the early 2010's during the economic downturn. From the late 2010's into the early 2020's there has been an increasing number of inward migrants. These numbers have not reached the peak of the inward migration figures in 2007 where there was an estimated inward net migrations of 104,800 persons.
Irish migration flows are currently in a unique situation regarding the inward migration flows in 2022, 2023 and 2024 (to date). A large number of inward migrants have arrived from Ukraine as Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (BoTP). As well as this, applicants of International Protection (IP) have also increased significantly.
Inward flows of the BoTP group have been significant in volume, accounting for a large percentage of inward migrants in 2022 and 2023. Also, the inward flows of the IP group have been notably higher than in previous years, however these do not yet account for a significant proportion of the inward migrants.
The Expert Group considered if the ultimate inward/outward migration volume flows needed to incorporate any increases or decreases based on the recent larger flows in the “Rest of the World” population due to the BoTP and IP inward migration of 2022, 2023 and 2024. The Expert Group in general agreed that no special treatment would be undertaken, aside from the introduction of a tapered rate of reduction of inward migration over the period to 2032. This taper would encompass a higher inward migration rate in the short-term while allowing the three different migration scenarios to be considered in the long-term.
The Expert Group noted the correlation between unemployment and net migration. The steady fall in the unemployment rate in recent years is in line with the return to net inward migration since 2014.
The ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2024 expects economic growth to continue growing. The Expert Group noted that periods of economic growth typically result in low unemployment and significant net inward migration.
The Expert Group also felt that there is still a ‘pull’ factor at play in Ireland with capacity in a number of sectors of the labour market. They noted how the volumes of both Irish and non-Irish immigrants had increased substantially in recent years and felt that this was likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This discussion helped the group in determining the migration parameters.
The age distribution of emigrants was discussed and the group felt that emigration levels may decline as the population ages. The group noted that the majority of emigrants were aged between 15 - 44 years (see fig 6.2 below). The group noted that the population of Ireland has been getting steadily older since the 1980's and this population aging effect is forseen to continue. This may affect the number of outward migrants that are expected to leave the country over the course of this projection exercise.
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