The labour force is comprised of persons who are either employed or unemployed and the definition used in this analysis is that prescribed by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and used in the Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS). Projected labour force estimates are calculated by applying average labour force participation rates to the different projected population cohorts. As the labour force projections cover the period up to and including 2037, fertility does not impact in any way as only those aged 15 and over are considered to be in the labour force and accordingly only the three different migration scenarios are relevant when examining labour force projections. The labour force assumptions agreed by the Expert Group are summarised below.
Persons aged 15 - 24:
Persons aged 25 – 74+:
Participation rates are applied to the relevant sub-populations of five-year age groups for men and women. The age groups 15 - 19 and 20 - 24 are further split between those in the education system and those outside. The rates underpinning the labour force assumptions are outlined in the following sections.
The education participation rates for males and females aged 15 - 19 has remained relatively constant over recent years. This trend is projected to continue at these same levels in the future. Participation rates for males and females aged 20 - 24 have increased slightly as people remain in education longer. From 2011 to 2022 we can see that the education participation rate has increased by 9 percent and 10 percent for males and females in this age category respectively. The Expert Group expect this level of educational participation to continue into the future. See table 7.1.
The labour force participation of students is largely a reflection of the extent to which they are involved in part-time work while in full-time education. The rates for 15 - 19 year olds were 23 and 28 per cent for males and females respectively in 2022. These are increases from the 2011 and the 2016 figures. These rates are expected to remain constant until 2037. Similarly, the rates for 20 - 24 year olds are projected to remain stable as roughly half of students participating in the work force.
The labour force participation rates of non-students aged 15 - 24 has been gradually increasing, with a convergence of rates projected between males and females. This gradual increase is projected to continue to 2037. For the non-students aged 20 - 24 we see a very strong labour force participation which is again projected to continue to 2037. See table 7.2.
For males aged 25 - 54 labour force participation rates are projected to remain broadly in line with 2022 levels, with some scope for small improvement. Rates for older males (55 - 69) are projected to show proportionately larger increases, particularly for those aged 60 and over. This reflects both a greater propensity to remain in the labour force among older people and increases to the mandatory retirement age.
Due to falling marriage rates and a larger proportion of woman who are married choosing to continue in the workforce, these labour force projections are treating the female workforce as a single group regardless of marital status. The same participation rate has been applied to both married and unmarried female groups. Alongside their male counterparts, the participation rates for females aged 25 - 54 are projected to remain broadly in line with 2022 levels, with some scope for small improvement. Rates for older females are also projected to show proportionately larger increases.
The actual labour force participation rates for 2011, 2016 amd 2022 as well as the assumed labour force participation rates for 2027, 2032 and 2037 are given in table 7.3 for males, married females and unmarried females respectively.
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