Population and Labour Force Projections 2023-2057

Population and Labour Force Projection Model

Demographic component method

The model used for these population and labour force projections is the Demographic Component Method which projects the 2022 usually resident (base) population forward under the chosen assumptions governing births, deaths and net migration. The Demographic Component Method (DCM) works as follows:

1. Beginning with the first year after the base year, the usually resident population is aged one year using suitable survivorship ratios. The survivorship ratios reflect the underlying mortality assumptions determined by the Expert Group. This gives the Surviving Population.
2. Gross inward and outward migration rates that are expected to be experienced by the groups within the usually resident population are applied. The resulting estimate for net migration is then applied to provide the Surviving Population adjusted for net migration.
3. For females aged between 15-49, the assumed fertility rates are applied to calculate the assumed number of births in the year. The assumed infant mortality rates are then applied. By combining the adjusted number of births with the number of females and the number of males, the Total Projected Population for each year is obtained.
4. This process then continues for Base Year + 1, Base Year + 2 all the way to the end of the projection period (in this round of projections, 2057).
5. For the Projected Labour Force, the assumed labour force participation rates for categories of males and females are applied to the projected population aged 15 years and over. The factors considered include:
• Age structure
• Family formations at specific ages
• The estimated proportion of young people who are students

This is illustrated graphically in the flow chart diagram below. 

Population projections methodology

After the usually resident based population is aged a year, the appropriate survivorship ratios (see Concepts and Definitions section below) are applied, accounting for mortality and giving the surviving population.  The gross inward and outward migration rates which these groups are assumed to experience in the year are applied to the population.  The assumed fertility rates are applied to the female population aged 15 - 49 to give the number of births in the year (adjusted downward for infant mortality) to give the total projected population for that year.  This population then becomes the base population for the following year and the process continues from 2023 to 2057.

The assumed outward and inward migration flows are broken down by age and sex on the basis of the distributions estimated for the inter-censal period 2016 - 2022.  This yields the surviving population adjusted for net migration but without an estimate of the number of children born in the year.  The age specific fertility rates for the projection year are applied to the projected female population to estimate the projected births.  These births are then divided into males and females on the basis of the ratios experienced for recent years.  The appropriate survivorship ratios are then applied to male and female births before these are added in to yield the total projected population.

Labour force projections methodology

The assumed labour force participation rates for males, single females and married females are applied to the projected population aged 15 years and over to give the projected labour force.  These participation rates are based on age, the proportion of young people who are students and the estimated proportion of these young people who are in the labour force.

Diagram of population and labour force projection model

Concepts and Definitions

Usually resident population: All persons resident in the State, for a period that is, or is expected to be at least 12 months.  Persons who are usually resident in Ireland but are temporarily away from home and outside the State on Census night are included in the usually resident population.

Age specific fertility rate: The age specific fertility rate for a particular age group is the number of live births to women in that age group per 1,000 females in the same age group.

Total fertility rate (TFR): The TFR represents the theoretical average number of children who would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her child bearing years (ages 15 - 49) conforming to the age specific fertility rates of a given year.  The rate refers to a theoretical female cohort.  The TFR is compiled by summing the age specific fertility rates for the relevant five-year age groups, dividing by 1,000 and multiplying by 5.  The small number of births for which the age of the mother is not stated is distributed in proportion to the stated categories.

Life expectancy: The average number of additional years a person would live if current mortality trends were to continue.  The expectation of life at birth represents the mean length of life of individuals who are subjected since birth to current mortality trends.  Life expectancy is usually compiled on the basis of a life table showing the probability of dying at each age for a given population according to the age specific death rates prevailing in a given period.

Survivorship ratio: The survivorship ratio at age x, Sx, is calculated as Sx=Lx/Lx-1 where Lx is the population aged between x and x+1 assuming that 100,000 births occur each year according to the Life Tables.

Immigration: The action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country.

Emigration: The action by which a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months.

Net migration: The net effect of immigration and emigration. A positive entry denotes that inward migration exceeds outward migration and vice-versa.

Labour force participation rate: The number of persons at work or unemployed (either looking for first regular job or having lost or given up previous job) in a particular age group expressed as a percentage of all persons in that age group.

Young dependency ratio: The population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years.

Old dependency ratio: The population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years.

Total dependency ratio: The sum of the young and old dependency ratios.

Expert Group meetings

As in previous iterations of the projections, the CSO convened an Expert Group on Population Projections. The group met three times, on 15th Feb 2024, 5th April 2024 and 24th May 2024 and agreed on the assumptions to be used in the projections. The CSO would like to thank all members of the group for participating in the projections process.

Expert Group membership

The Expert Group consisted of the following people: