Population and Labour Force Projections 2017 - 2051

The usually resident population according to Census 2016 was 4.74 million and this is projected to grow significantly under the six projection scenarios to 2051.  Table 2.1 and figure 2.1 illustrate the projected population at 5 year intervals for the six scenarios from 2016 - 2051.  The largest change is projected for the high migration and high fertility variant M1F1 (which maintains the Total Fertility Rate at 1.8 over the entire period to 2051, coupled with annual net inward migration of 30,000 persons from 2017 onwards) where the population is projected to grow by 1,953,300 (+41.2%) over the 35 year period to 2051. This equates to an average annual rate of population increase of almost 0.8 per cent. 

The more moderate M2F2 (which assumes annual net inward migration of 20,000 and a declining fertility rate) shows a population increase of 1,290,900 (+27.2%) over the period to 6.03 million persons, equivalent to a 0.69 per cent annual average increase.  Under the most pessimistic variant M3F2 (which assumes annual net inward migration of 10,000 and a declining fertility rate), the population is only expected to increase to 5,578,300 in 2051 or by 17.7%.

Table 2.2 illustrates how net migration and natural increase (ie. births less deaths) both play important roles in the population change to 2051.  Net migration tends to be the more important component in the high migration scenarios.  For example under the M1F1 variant, the population is projected to increase by 1,953,300 by 2051 with 53.8% of this increase is due to net inward migration and 46.2% is due to natural increase (see figure 2.2).  Under the M1F2 variant, which encompasses high migration and declining fertility 60.3%, of the increase is due to net inward migration and 39.7% natural increase.

Fertility tends to be the more significant component in the low net migration scenarios.  Under the M3F1 variant the population will increase by 1,022,700 to 2051 with 65.8% of this increase due to natural increase and 34.2% to net inward migration. Under the M3F2 variant, the population will increase by 838,700 to 2051, with 58.2% due to natural increase and 41.8% is due to net inward migration.  See figure 2.3.

The projected number of births, deaths and net migration under the six scenarios are set out for five year periods from 2016 - 2051 in table 2.3.  This table also contains comparable historical inter-censal data from 1926 onwards in order to facilitate comparisons with past trends.

Births

Annual average births are projected to experience a period of decline towards 2030 under all scenarios, at varying rates depending on the assumption used.  This is a consequence of the projected lower number of women of child bearing years at this time, resulting from a fall in the number of births between the period 1986 and 2006.  Under M1F1 (the most positive scenario) annual births are projected to fall from an annual average of 68,600 in the five year period to 2016 to around 61,600 persons during 2021 to 2026.  Births will subsequently increase just under 75,000 annually by the 2040s.  However for other scenarios such as M1F2 and M3F2 annual average births are projected to reach around 65,000 and 55,000 respectively by 2051.  Figure 2.4 graphs the projected births for each year from 2017 - 2051 for the chosen assumptions.

Deaths

The average annual numbers of deaths are projected to increase steadily under all scenarios from 29,500 in 2016 to between 54,400 and 56,500 by 2051 depending on the scenario chosen. Figure 2.5 graphs the projected deaths for the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, with the other scenarios falling between these.

Natural Increase

In the five years to 2016 the natural increase in the population (i.e. the excess of births over deaths) was 39,100 persons and by 2051 this is expected to decline substantially. Under the most positive M1F1 scenario the natural increase is projected to be 19,400 in the five years to 2051, representing a decline of 50.4% from 2016 levels.  For the most pessimistic scenario M3F2 the natural increase, though still projected to be positive, will fall to just 1,800 per annum in the period 2046 - 2051.  This represents a decline of 37,300 (-95.5%) on the average annual natural increase recorded between 2011 - 2016. 

Net migration

During the period 2011-2016, annual net migration was -6,200 (i.e. an average of 6,200 more persons left the country than arrived). This is projected to change to +30,000 on average for scenario M1, an annual average of +20,000 persons for M2 and +10,000 (the most pessimistic scenario) for M3 for the period 2017 - 2051.

Table 2.4 shows the population results by broad age groups under the various combinations of assumptions for five-year intervals from 2016 - 2051 and also distinguishes the derived young and old dependency ratios as well as the population of school-going age.

The young population – Ages 0 - 14

Census 2016 showed that there were 1,005,500 persons aged 0-14 years.  Under the most positive scenario M1F1 the population aged 0 - 14 is projected to decline from 2016 levels to 960,600 persons by 2031.  Post 2031 the average annual numbers of births are projected to rise steadily under the high fertility scenarios, leading to 1,127,600 persons aged 0 - 14 under the high migration high fertility assumption M1F1 by 2051.  This represents an increase of 12.1% over 2016 levels.

Using the medium migration and declining fertility assumption M2F2 the number of persons aged 0-14 is projected to decline to 853,100 in 2036, before rising steadily to 918,200 persons by 2051.  This represents a decrease of 8.7% on 2016 levels.  Finally under the low migration and falling fertility assumption M3F2 the young population would decline by 169,000 persons to 836,500 over the 35 year period.  Figure 2.6 shows the percentage of the population aged 0 - 14 for selected years.                              

Primary school children – Ages 5 - 12

For the purpose of this projections exercise the “primary” school population is broadly represented by those aged 5-12 years of age.  In 2016 there were 548,100 children in this age group and this number is projected to increase by between 13,900 and 7,400 to 2021, depending on the scenario chosen.  Post 2021 the fall in births since 2010 is expected to impact negatively on the number of primary school children under all combinations of assumptions, before increasing steadily thereafter.  The period and rate of decline is dependent on the assumption chosen.  

Under the most positive migration and fertility assumption M1F1 primary school children will decrease from 548,100 in 2016 to 510,900 by 2031 (-6.8%), before climbing to reach 607,600 by 2051 (10.9% above 2016 levels). The medium migration and declining fertility assumption M2F2 shows the number of primary school children falling to 451,600 by 2036 before recovering to 497,200 by 2051. This is 50,900 children (-9.3%) below 2016 levels.   Under the least optimistic scenario M3F2 the number of primary school children is projected to decline right through to 2041 reaching 422,300 before recovering to 453,900 by 2051. This is 94,200 (17.2%) less than the number recorded for 2016.  Figure 2.7 shows the projected number of primary school pupils for selected years from 2016 - 2051.

Secondary school pupils – Ages 13 - 18

The number of children of “secondary” school age (i.e. persons aged 13-18 years) are projected to increase by between 75,700 and 67,200 over the next decade to 2026, depending on the assumptions used.  This represents increases in the range of 20.5 to 18.2 per cent over the period. The largest increases will be seen between 2021 and 2026 as the projected cohort of primary school children graduate to secondary level.   The number of secondary school children is projected to decline under all scenarios post 2026 to 2051 with declines ranging from 106,900 under M3F2 to 6,000 under M1F1 over the period.  Figure 2.8 shows the projected number of secondary school pupils for selected years from 2016 - 2051.

 

Working age population – Ages 15 - 64

The working age population is primarily comprised of those aged 15 - 64.  In 2016 there were 3,104,300 persons in this age category, equating to 65.5% of the total population of 4,739,600.  While the size of this population group will rise under all scenarios by 2051, its relative share of the total population is set to decrease.

The M1F1 scenario projects that while the working age population will increase by 863,800 (27.8%) to 3,968,100 by 2051, its overall share of the population of 6,692,900 will have declined by over 6 percentage points to 59.3%.  The M2F2 scenario shows that the working age population will increase by 445,500 to 3,549,700 by 2051 (14.3%) but its overall share of the population will have declined from 65.5% in 2016 to just under 59% by 2051. Under the M3F2 scenario the working age population is projected to increase by just 109,200 (3.5%) to 3,213,500 persons by 2051.  Its overall share of the population of 5,578,300 will have declined however by nearly 8 percentage points to 57.6%.  Figure 2.9 shows the percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 for selected years from 2016 - 2051.

 

The older population – Ages 65 and over

The older population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to increase very significantly from its 2016 level of 629,800 persons to nearly 1.6 million by 2051 under the more positive M1 and M2 migration assumptions and to nearly 1.53 million under more conservative M3 migration scenario.  See fig 2.10.

The very old population (i.e. those aged 80 years of age and over) is set to rise even more dramatically, increasing from 147,800 in 2016 to 549,000 under M1F1 and 535,900 under M3F2.  See tables 2.5 - 2.10.

 In 2016, the number of persons aged 0-14 (1,005,500) was considerably higher than the number of persons aged 65+ (629,800), but this will reverse by 2031 under all scenarios. The excess will increase steadily towards 2051 at which stage it is projected that there will be between 496,600 and 691,800 more older people than younger people depending on the scenario used.  See tables 2.4 - 2.10.

Dependency ratios

The young dependency ratio (the population aged 0 - 14 years expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) is projected to fall under all assumptions by 2051.  This ratio was 32.4% in 2016 and falls to between 25.8% (M1F2) and 28.8% in 2051 (M3F1).   The young dependency ratio is expected to be at its lowest level in the five year period to 2036.

The older dependency ratio (the population aged 65 years and over expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 - 64 years) was 20.3% in 2016.  This is projected to increase steadily from 2016 onwards, rising by 3 - 4 percentage points every five years. By 2051 this ratio will be have doubled since 2016 except under M1F1 where it is just less than double and will range between 40.3% for the M1F1 scenario to 47.6% under the M3F2 scenario.

The two ratios combined give the total dependency ratio. In 2016 the total dependency ratio of 52.7% meant that there were roughly 2 people of working age for everyone aged 0-14 and 65+. This ratio is projected to rise under all scenarios to reach values of between 66.9 per cent (M1F2) and 75.2 per cent (M3F1) by 2051.  Therefore in 2051 there will be less than 1.5 persons of working age compared to those aged 0 - 14 and 65+. See table 2.4.

While this report contains a number of summary tables, detailed results of the population projections from 2017 to 2051 are available on the CSO Statbank here.