The value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices is expected to rise by 4% (+€430m) to €11.7bn in 2024.
Milk volumes are projected to fall by 4%, but with prices up by 7%, the value of Milk production will increase by €85m to €3.6bn.
Livestock values are expected to rise by almost 4% (+€164m) to €4.7bn as the value of Cattle (+2%), Pigs (+9%) and Sheep (+16%) all increase.
Livestock prices are forecast to grow by an average of 3%. It is anticipated that Sheep prices will be up by 16%, Cattle prices will be 3% stronger while the price of Pigs will increase by 1%.
The value of Crops is expected to rise by 5% (+€137m) to €2.6bn. The calculated value of Cereals is up by 10% (+€33m) to €377m, although it should be noted that while the value of barley and oats are estimated to grow, the value of wheat will fall due to a steep reduction in output volumes.
It is estimated that Intermediate Consumption costs will fall by 5% (-€377m) to €7.4bn in 2024. This drop is primarily due to the cost of Fertilisers contracting by 27% (-€223m) due to prices falling by 30%, and the cost of Feeding Stuffs falling by 6% (-€143m) due to lower prices (-13%).
The payment of net subsidies (i.e. Subsidies less Taxes on Products plus Other Subsidies less Taxes on Production) is currently expected to increase by 13% (+€212m) to €1.9bn.
The combined impact on Agricultural Operating Surplus of higher output values, lower input costs, higher subsidy payments, and other changes, is an increase of 33% (+€951m) to €3.9bn in 2024.
The figures for 2024 are advance estimates which are provisional and based on the latest available data. These figures are subject to change once the complete set of data for the full year becomes available. Updated figures for 2024 will be published in the Preliminary Estimate in March 2025, followed by the Final Estimate in June 2025.
| Table 1.1: Output, Input and Income in Agriculture, 2021–2024 | ||||||||
| € million | Annual Change (%) | |||||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| Goods Output | 9,629 | 12,312 | 10,670 | 11,053 | 27.9 | -13.3 | 3.6 | |
| Intermediate Consumption | 6,203 | 7,880 | 7,754 | 7,376 | 27.0 | -1.6 | -4.9 | |
| Net Subsidies | 1,720 | 1,952 | 1,640 | 1,852 | 13.5 | -16.0 | 12.9 | |
| Operating Surplus | 3,647 | 4,795 | 2,907 | 3,858 | 31.5 | -39.4 | 32.7 | |
| Entrepreneurial Income | 3,082 | 4,178 | 2,143 | 3,034 | 35.6 | -48.7 | 41.6 | |
| X-axis label | Goods Output | Intermediate Consumption | Net Subsidies | Operating Surplus | Entrepreneurial Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.629 | 6.203 | 1.72 | 3.647 | 3.082 |
| 2022 | 12.312 | 7.88 | 1.952 | 4.795 | 4.178 |
| 2023 | 10.67 | 7.754 | 1.64 | 2.907 | 2.143 |
| 2024 | 11.053 | 7.376 | 1.852 | 3.858 | 3.034 |
The CSO’s first estimate of Agricultural Operating Surplus for 2024 is an increase of 33% (+€951m) to €3.9bn. The main reasons for this rise are higher output prices, a growth in subsidy payments, and a reduction in input costs.
Cattle prices are expected to increase by more than 3% for the year, but with volumes down by 2%, their value is estimated to grow by €46m to €3.1bn. Despite just marginal growth in Pig prices (+1%), with volumes up by 8%, the value of Pigs is expected to grow by €58m to €727m in 2024. Sheep prices are expected to be significantly up (+16%) for the year, and with almost no change in output volumes, their value will grow by €56m to €401m. The value of Poultry is expected to increase by €3m to €226m as volumes rise by 2%. Milk volumes are estimated to contract by 4% this year, but with prices up by 7%, the value of Milk is projected to increase by €85m to €3.6bn. This is still well below the value of €5.0bn achieved in 2022.
The value of Crops is expected to rise by 5% (+€137m) to €2.6bn in 2024. Adverse weather conditions at planting time caused significant reductions in both the area planted (-20%) and production (-24%) of winter Cereals. However, the area planted with spring Cereals increased by 8%, and with higher yields, production grew by 25%. As a result of the higher output of spring Cereals, the total value of Cereals is projected to rise by 10% (+€33m) to €377m. Excluding last year, which was a very difficult year for cereal producers, the value of cereal production is expected to be the lowest since 2020. The volume of Forage Plants is expected to be down by 2%, but with higher prices (+4%), it is expected that values will increase by €29m to €1.5bn. The value of Other Crops is expected to rise by 11% (+€74m) to €748m, primarily due to higher prices (+8%).
With the value of Goods Output at Producer Prices up by €383m, the value of Contract Work increasing by €11m and Subsidies less Taxes on Products more than doubling (+114%) to €69m, the value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices is expected to grow by 4% (+€430m) to €11.7bn.
In relation to input costs, it should be noted that the projected cost of most items of Intermediate Consumption, excluding fertilisers and feeding stuffs, are based only on the available year to date price changes. On that basis, Intermediate Consumption costs are expected to fall by 5% (-€377m) to €7.4bn. Fertilisers account for €223m of this reduction due to their prices falling by 30%. With prices expected to be down by 13% and volumes up by 8%, the cost of Feeding Stuffs is projected to fall by 6% (-€143m) to €2.1bn. Expenditure on Energy and Lubricants is expected to contract by 5% (-€35m) to €609m while the cost of Forage Plants will rise by 2% (+€29m) to €1.5bn.
With the value of Agricultural Output at Basic Prices increasing by €430m, Intermediate Consumption costs falling by €377m, Other Subsidies less Taxes on Production increasing by €175m and Compensation of Employees’ costs growing by €32m, Operating Surplus is expected to increase by 33% (+€951m) to €3.9bn in 2024.
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (06 December 2024) published Output, Input and Income in Agriculture – Advance Estimate 2024.
Commenting on the release, Mairead Griffin, Statistician in the Agricultural Accounts and Production Section, said: “This early estimate of the value of agricultural outputs, inputs, and income for 2024 shows some recovery in agricultural incomes for 2024. However, these are still very early estimates which will change with the availability of end of year stock volumes, prices for the full year and the additional information required for reliable estimates of all output values and input costs.
While last year’s results were dominated by two outputs, namely Milk and Cereals, which both experienced large drops in their values, this year’s first estimates show some modest gains in output prices, increases in the value of subsidy payments, and some lower input costs. Livestock values are expected to grow by 4% (+€164m) as an increase in Sheep prices (+16%) causes their value to rise by €56m, while Pig values are estimated to be up by 9% (+€58m) as output volumes rise by 8%. Cattle volumes are expected to decrease by 2% but with stronger prices (+3%), their value will grow by €46m. It is anticipated that Milk volumes will be down by about 4% but with stronger prices (+7%), the value of Milk will grow by 2% to €3.6bn, still well below the value achieved in 2022.
Cereals and Crops
The very unfavourable weather conditions at planting time resulted in sharp drops in the volume of winter cereals produced. The area planted with winter cereals fell by 20% and lower yields resulted in production contracting by 24%. As winter wheat accounts for most of the wheat grown in Ireland, wheat values are expected to be lower. However, the area planted with spring Cereals increased by 8% and when combined with higher yields, spring Cereal volumes grew by 25%. As a result, Cereal values are expected to rise by 10% (+€33m), despite no growth in their average price. Overall Crop values are expected to increase by 5% (+€137m) to €2.6bn.
Costs and Surpluses
In relation to input costs, our current estimate is that Intermediate Consumptions costs will fall by 5% (-€377m) to €7.4bn. However, it should be noted that apart from fertiliser and feed costs, we still have very limited information on the other input costs. The cost of Fertilisers is expected to fall by 27% (-€223m) due to their average price falling by 30%, while the cost of Feeding Stuffs is projected to fall by 6% (-€143m) also due to lower prices (-13%).
Current indicators are that the combined value of payments of Subsidies less Taxes on Products together with Other Subsidies less Taxes on Production is an increase of 13% (+€212m).
The expected net impact on Operating Surplus of both higher output values and subsidy payments, combined with lower input costs and other changes, is an increase of 33% (+€951m), bringing the value of Operating Surplus to €3.9bn in 2024.”