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Headline Economic Results

This release was compiled during the COVID-19 crisis. The results contained in this release reflect some of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 situation. For further information see Information Note - Implications of COVID-19 on the Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 4 2020.

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Year 2020 Analysis

Annual increase of 3.4% in Real GDP in 2020

Table 1.1 GDP and GNP at constant 2018 prices, 20201
 Amount €mAnnual % change
GDP356,9813.4
GNP266,6450.6
1Constant Market Prices, chain linked annually and referenced to year 2018.

Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP in volume terms increased by 3.4% for the year 2020. GNP showed an increase of 0.6% in 2020 over 2019.

GDPGNP
20148.640445800231518.97795744763175
201525.176402111410613.7108784207774
20161.99376027856477.62160830767618
20179.129440015562866.27303948920124
20188.516395593347477.29216064133897
20195.565201276308483.39898584461622
20203.417821282467170.607673610065507
Industry (excl. Construction)Information and CommunicationPublic Admin, Education and HealthDistribution, Transport, Hotels and RestaurantsProfessional, Admin and Support ServicesReal Estate ActivitiesFinancial and Insurance ActivitiesConstructionAgriculture Forestry and FishingArts, Entertainment and Other Services
2020133.724268115152.556471068633.570355733130.931664927329.625675714319.89809296119.45562653117.50154060683.67242866861.941567936
2019116.112104235345.964308633233.942940313737.151631166935.062856372520.233286883919.6846972398.59298845933.73338707674.2612108539

Value added for Multinational-dominated sectors increased in 2020, all other economic sectors declined

Value added for the Industry (excluding Construction) and Information & Communication sectors recorded increases of 15.2% and 14.3% respectively in real terms in the year, see Table 2.4. Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants declined by 16.7% year-on-year while Professional Admin and Support Services decreased by 15.5%. Construction recorded a decline of 12.7% in volume terms in 2020 compared to 2019, while the Arts & Entertainment sector declined by 54.4%. Other sectors exhibited modest, low single digit percentage declines in the year. (Public Administration, Education & Health -1.1%, Real Estate activities -1.7%, Financial & Insurance -1.2% and the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector -1.6%).

Personal Consumption ExpenditureGovernment ExpenditureGross Fixed Capital FormationValue of Physical Changes in StocksNet ExportsModified Final Domestic DemandGDP
201492.688253954127.468236749343.65191789592.849187332541.6892447108150.2408997211216.2698105053
201595.637710385628.11147524965.54859773024.167107508970.6697566684157.0188850652270.7187676437
2016100.384170927629.35760624598.88314400954.734745978237.4843322877166.1917532012276.1162508996
2017102.774857460930.465749464398.85861704274.164230490164.597042055171.9807794632301.3241183987
2018105.626410633132.226704979592.74877693741.351723633892.787451421179.3224273184326.9860723397
2019108.985971742834.2652972366162.13448688571.736287672835.5403085022185.2379137617345.1835054109
202099.127132158137.6398079902109.70225543815.2130128983108.9630732383175.1649084536356.9812607224

Intellectual Property effects in Imports and Capital Investment, Impact of COVID-19

On the expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3.4), Capital Investment, driven by Intellectual Property Products (IPP), declined by €49.0 billion during 2020 while Personal Consumption Expenditure, which accounts for just over 40% of Domestic Demand, fell 9.0% compared with the previous year. Government expenditure increased by 9.8% over the same period.  Final Domestic Demand decreased by 19.3% in 2020 compared with 2019 while Modified Domestic Demand decreased by 5.4% over the year.

Exports grew 6.2% during the year while Imports decreased by 11.3%, driven to a considerable extent by a fall in IPP investment compared with 2019. Overall net exports for the year increased by €73.4 billion which when combined with the 19.3% fall in domestic demand resulted in an overall increase in real GDP in 2020 of 3.4%. Factor income outflows were 12.7% higher in 2020 (+€10.2 billion) compared with 2019 leading to an overall increase in real GNP of 0.6%.

Quarter 4 2020 Analysis

Decline of 5.1% in GDP (seasonally adjusted) in Quarter 4, while GNP increased by 8.5%

Table 1.2 GDP and GNP at constant 2018 prices, Q4 20201
 Amount €mQuarterly % change
GDP89,871-5.1
GNP69,6558.5
1Constant Market Prices, chain linked annually and referenced to year 2018, seasonally adjusted

Initial estimates for the fourth quarter of 2020 indicate that there was a fall of 5.1% in GDP in real terms in Q4 2020 compared to the previous quarter.

GDPGNP
2019 Q1-0.699718890466572-0.177634486255651
2019 Q24.725299844369964.35225825494239
2019 Q3-0.1689960414500980.613065720614481
2019 Q43.614473645316155.69204670051355
2020 Q1-3.90694162617026-5.15805420733613
2020 Q2-2.13823793801503-3.16910539598386
2020 Q311.7932908907346-0.820288462894558
2020 Q4-5.086414789870198.47365608769983
Industry (excl. Construction)Information and CommunicationPublic Admin, Education and HealthDistribution, Transport, Hotels and RestaurantsProfessional, Admin and Support ServicesReal Estate ActivitiesFinancial and Insurance ActivitiesConstructionAgriculture Forestry and FishingArts, Entertainment and Other Services
202033.94165468312.6784084288.4935373668.0882014587.5367207885.0619784664.99311882.1726184540.943539670.318274048
201933.97996995415.1768850838.4191884928.2421262977.273356484.8882249094.9130895081.865278250.9295327370.323884485

While Industry (excluding Construction) changed little in the quarter, Information and Communication declined by 16.5% in Q4 while the domestically dominated Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector decreased by 1.9%.  Quarter-on-quarter increases were recorded in Professional & Administrative services (3.6%), Construction (16.5%), Real Estate (3.6%), Finance & Insurance (1.6%), and Agriculture (1.5%). The Arts & Entertainment decreased by 1.7% over the period compared with Q3 2020. (See Table 2.6)

Personal Consumption ExpenditureGovernment ExpenditureGross Fixed Capital FormationValue of Physical Changes in StocksNet ExportsModified Final Domestic DemandGDP
2018 Q126.0988010977.845104054816.3143888591.785846754127.81561469144.26127249979.714222153
2018 Q226.3990918948.064263815716.636030697-0.36267108330.27530146344.87486540282.134191217
2018 Q326.54575258.188660778819.2028554960.268139630326.8170851344.97177906682.215113748
2018 Q426.5645871588.134051837540.391631577-0.269000272210.0890681245.09035012783.730135056
2019 Q127.0454286458.503970507218.7616576830.907264151428.18976015746.11705711683.144259484
2019 Q227.2867395648.53969214359.976567243-1.096186789-8.3890235145.91269326587.073075048
2019 Q327.3139843548.603142184421.1231895821.252059853727.37139745146.78362110886.925924998
2019 Q427.3272066828.625592928562.015363280.7003263976-7.1797239146.23630423490.067839648
2020 Q126.4626262258.666347675750.0428803220.9402398971-2.0769272899999945.40232940486.548941729
2020 Q221.411048039.595046598917.3732977651.655398215736.701145838.67765561784.698319422
2020 Q325.888854979.689156077218.3943770040.750660224343.11380446645.9324207494.687038611
2020 Q425.2813909969.695774561723.6814080361.869019117229.54653602544.91533219689.870863075

On the expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3.6), Capital Investment, exhibited an increase of €6.4 billion in Q4 compared with the previous quarter and accounted for 42.2% of domestic demand in Q4 2020. Imports increased by 24.4% in Q4 2020 compared with Q3 2020 while Exports increased by 4.2% which meant that overall net exports for the quarter were 31.5% lower in Q4 compared with Q3 or €13.6 billion lower in money terms quarter-on-quarter. These two impacts combined resulted in an overall decline in the real GDP growth rate in Q4 2020 of 5.1%. With Personal Consumption Expenditure down by 2.3% in Q4 compared to Q3, Final Domestic Demand increased by 8.7% in Q4 compared with Q3 while Modified Domestic Demand fell by 2.2% over the same period.

GDPNet Factor Income from Rest or WorldGNP
2018 Q179.714222153-17.2170439262.49717823
2018 Q282.134191217-16.3102012165.823990006
2018 Q382.215113748-17.0919900865.123123669
2018 Q483.730135056-20.0854963563.644638709
2019 Q183.144259484-19.612675663.531583882
2019 Q287.073075048-20.7764325666.296642486
2019 Q386.925924998-20.2228405266.703084475
2019 Q490.067839648-19.5679844570.499855194
2020 Q186.548941729-19.6855072866.863434447
2020 Q284.698319422-19.9538576864.744461738
2020 Q394.687038611-30.4736682264.213370388
2020 Q489.870863075-20.2162725269.654590557

Factor income outflows were €10,257m lower than in the previous quarter leading to an overall increase in GNP of 8.5% for the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the annual National Income and Expenditure. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.

 


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