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Stability and Growth Pact

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Before the introduction of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), the EU monitored economic and fiscal developments within the economies of member states through the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). This framework now operates in tandem with the MIP and sets thresholds on both government deficits (3% of GDP) and government debt levels (60% of GDP). The reporting of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) statistics, which is a requirement for all EU member states, forms part of the monitoring of the SGP obligations. The corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact goes further in ensuring that member states adopt appropriate policy responses to correct excessive deficits (and/or debts) by implementing the EDP.

General Govt. Gross debt as % of GDPMIP Threshold
201086.01803187305360
2011110.98318106402860
2012119.94952712484160
2013119.89558127660160
2014104.21723228236360
201576.705302739090660
201674.081813657505760
201766.996734145078460
201862.963348019869160
201957.350721209887960

Source publication: Government Finance Statistics October 2020

Get the data: StatBank GFA13 (Government Debt), StatBank N1905 (GDP)

This indicator is part of the SGP which was introduced in 1993. It is the same as Headline Indicator 9 from the MIP Scoreboard. Ireland breached the 60% threshold of the Stability and Growth Pact for general government (GG) debt as a percentage of GDP from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, GG debt as a percentage of GDP dropped to 57.4%, constituting the first time in over 10 years that this indicator did not breach the Stability and Growth Pact threshold level of 60%. It should be noted that the main driver of the decrease in this indicator in 2015 was the large increase in Ireland's GDP, as there was only a small decrease in the level of government debt in that year. Similarly, decreases in the value of this indicator since 2015 were caused by growth in GDP, as values of government debt actually rose in 2017 and 2018 and fell by less than 1% in 2016 and 2019.

 

Annual Gross Debt (% of GDP)Annual Net Debt (% of GDP)
201086.01803187305366.4485847537483
2011110.98318106402879.352563015133
2012119.94952712484186.9666027046784
2013119.89558127660189.9407625155888
2014104.21723228236385.8015454936766
201576.705302739090665.7458731686532
201674.081813657505765.2278912443826
201766.996734145078458.4895484824576
201862.963348019869154.2252573504676
201957.350721209887949.3738256598072

Source publication: Government Finance Statistics October 2020

Get the data: StatBank GFA13 (Government Debt), StatBank N1905 (GDP)

Both the MIP and SGP use the gross debt concept. A more complete analysis of public indebtedness examines the corresponding assets and computes net government debt, i.e. gross government debt minus the value of the corresponding financial assets (currency and deposits, debt securities and loans). The gap between gross and net debt peaked in 2012 at 33.0% of GDP. This gap declined steadily from 2013 to 2016 and levelled out from 2017 with values close to 8% of GDP. In 2019, general government net debt fell by €1.5bn to €175.8bn (49.4% of GDP). This decrease was composed of a €1.7bn drop in GG debt and a decrease of €0.2bn in financial assets.

It is important to note that both gross and net debt exclude equity and other assets/liabilities. For a complete picture of the general government balance sheet and net worth see the annual GFS release.

Annual General Government Surplus/Deficit (% of GDP) (Left axis)MIP Threshold (left axis)Annual Revenue (right axis)Annual Expenditure (right axis)
2010-32.0646015482424-355.402109.166
2011-12.8083485911168-358.28980.185
2012-8.10661092836257-360.22874.423
2013-6.19488241582042-362.12173.248
2014-3.63416483899399-366.90373.996
2015-1.96878102970101-371.88477.059
2016-0.666521422847837-374.69576.5
2017-0.318589020163988-377.97278.929
20180.116212926547314-384.16783.786
20190.519588485919152-389.13587.285

Source publication: Government Finance Statistics October 2020

Get the data: StatBank GFA01 (Government Revenue/Expenditure), StatBank N1905 (GDP)

From 2010 to 2014, Ireland consistently exceeded the 3% of GDP threshold for government deficits set out in the SGP. The general government deficit held its largest value of 32.1% of GDP in 2010, as the impact of the global financial crisis was felt in Ireland. Expenditure was very high in 2010, a major component of which was exceptional capital support for domestic financial institutions. Revenue levels were also very low in 2010, significantly caused by a sharp decline in the property development sector. General government deficits have decreased since 2010, with both increases in overall revenue as economic recovery took hold and lower levels of expenditure. In 2015, the general government deficit fell within the SGP threshold for the first time since 2008, and this trend continued into 2017 where the deficit was reduced to 0.3% of GDP. A surplus of 0.1% of GDP was seen in 2018, the first since 2007. 2019 saw a general government surplus of 0.5% of GDP, well above the SGP threshold of -3%.

 

 

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