Modified Domestic Demand, a broad measure of underlying domestic activity covering personal, government, and capital formation spending, increased by 1.0%.
Personal spending on goods and services, a key measure of domestic economic activity,increased by 0.9%.
Multinational-dominated sectors grew by 6.2% in the quarter with all other sectors increasing by 1.5%.
Exports fell by 4.1% in Quarter 2 2023 while Imports increased by 0.1% leading to a decline in overall Net Exports of 14.4% (-€7.0 billion) in the quarter.
The Balance of Payments Current Account recorded a surplus of €15.8 billion in transactions with the rest of the world in Quarter 2 2023.
“The updated estimate of Real GDP for the Q2 2023 reference quarter indicates growth of 0.5%. This compares with a Preliminary GDP Estimate (T+30 day estimate) published on Friday 28 July 2023 that indicated an increase of 3.3% in for the quarter. The reason for the revision is that the updated T+2 months QNA estimate includes new information that was unavailable at T+30 timeliness, in particular for sectors including Industry (excluding Construction), Information & Communication, Professional, Administrative & Support Activities, Financial & Insurance services, and Real Estate Activities. Additionally, today’s result is based on both Expenditure and Output data, while the Preliminary estimate, published as a CSO Frontier Series Output, was based predominantly on economic Output data.
Preliminary estimates are published under the CSO Frontier Series which may use new compilation processes which are under development and / or new or more timely data sources and therefore the results may be subject to revision over time. Publishing outputs under the Frontier Series allows the CSO to provide useful new information to users and receive informed feedback on these new methods and outputs whilst at the same time making sure that the limitations are well explained and understood. See a list of our CSO Frontier Outputs.”
| Christopher Sibley | (+353) 1 498 4305 |
|---|---|
| John Sheridan | (+353) 1 498 4258 |
| nat_acc@cso.ie | |
| internationalaccounts@cso.ie |
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Statistician's Comment
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) today (01 September 2023) published Quarterly National Accounts and International Accounts results for Quarter 2 (Q2) 2023.
Assistant Director General with responsibility for Economic Statistics, Jennifer Banim, commented:
“In today’s results, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in April, May, and June (Q2) 2023. For Gross National Product (GNP) – a measure of economic activity that excludes the profits of multinationals – growth of 11.1% is estimated for the quarter.
The globalised Industry sector expanded by 3.8% in Q2 2023 compared with Q1 2023 while the Information & Communication sector increased by 2.0% over the same period. Overall, multinational-dominated sectors grew by 6.2% in the quarter and accounted for 53.1% of total value added in the economy, compared with a 46.9% share for all other sectors.
Domestic Economy
While economic activity increased for many of the sectors focused on the domestic market, there was a mixed picture overall. The Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector expanded by 10.3% in the quarter while the Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector increased by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter. Professional, Administrative & Support Activities and Finance & Insurance grew by 6.9% and 4.6% respectively in the quarter. However, there were declines in Construction and Arts & Entertainment in the period of 2.2% and 0.9% respectively.
Expenditure in the Economy
Looking at expenditure, Net Exports of Goods & Services fell by 14.4% in Q2 2023 or by €7.0 billion. Capital Investment rose by 16.0% in the quarter driven mainly by investment in Intangible Assets and a significant build-up in terms of the value of physical changes in Stocks. Government spending on goods and services increased by 4.3% in Q2 2023, while personal spending on goods and services (the PCE indicator) rose by 0.9% in the quarter. Examining PCE at constant price levels over the past three years, personal spending in Q2 2023 of €32.1 billion was 9.0% above the peak pre-pandemic level of personal spending recorded in Q2 2019.
Impact of Globalisation and the Indicators of Underlying Domestic Activity
Final Domestic Demand (FDD), a measure of personal, government and investment spending, increased by 3.0% in Q2 2023, reflecting a continued recovery in personal and investment spending compared with the previous quarter. In Q2 2023, the Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) indicator increased by 1.0%. MDD is an important measure of underlying demand and excludes significant key globalisation effects for Ireland from the standard Final Domestic Demand measure.
International Accounts
In the International Accounts, the Current Account of the Balance of Payments recorded a surplus of €15.8 billion in flows with the rest of the world in Q2 2023, an improvement of €2.0 billion compared with the surplus of €13.8 billion in Q2 2022. The Merchandise balance dis-improved by €9.5 billion in Q2 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022 while the Services balance improved by €6.2 billion. Net outflows of multinational profits were €24.4 billion in the quarter, a fall of €5.2 billion on Q2 2022 levels.”
Results for the First Half of 2023
Analysing the period from January to June 2023, National Accounts Statistician Gordon Cavanagh commented:
“Results for the first half of 2023 (H1 2023) compared with the equivalent period of 2022 show GDP increasing by 0.2%. Factor income outflows were €3.0 billion lower than in H1 2022, leading to an overall increase in GNP of 2.2% for the first six months of 2023 compared with the equivalent six months of 2022.
In the globalised sectors, there was a mixed picture. Expansion continued in the Information & Communication sector, which was up by 8.4% in H1 2023 compared with H1 2022, while the Industry sector fell by 1.2% over the same period. Certain sectors focused on the domestic market also experienced continued growth with Finance & Insurance increasing by 8.1% in the half year, and Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants and Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing both growing by 7.6% over the six-month period compared with the equivalent period of 2022. However, other domestic-facing sectors posted more modest growth in H1 2023 with the Public Administration, Education & Health sector growing by 2.9%, Real Estate Activities increasing by 2.0%, while Professional & Administrative Services rose by 0.6% over the same period. Contractions were recorded in H1 2023 in Industry (1.2%), Arts & Entertainment (4.5%), and in Construction (0.2%).
First-Half Expenditure in the Economy
Net Exports fell by 8.7% over the period compared with H1 2022 or €8.3 billion in monetary terms. The 1.3% increase in Exports in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2022 was outpaced by the growth in Imports of 5.7%. Personal spending (PCE) rose by 3.7% in H1 2023 compared with the same period of 2022, Capital Investment also grew by 3.7%, while Government spending on Goods & Services increased by 0.2%. Final Domestic Demand increased by 1.3% in the first half of 2023 compared with the equivalent period of 2022 while the MDD indicator grew by 1.8% in the same period.”