Press Statement

Preasráiteas

05 August 2020

Go to release: Monthly Unemployment July 2020

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (05 August 2020) issued Monthly Unemployment Estimates results in respect of July 2020.

Catalina Gonzalez, Statistician, CSO, explains the approach taken today regarding the publication of the Monthly Unemployment and the COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment Estimates:

‘Those persons in receipt of the COVID-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment at the end of July 2020 do not meet the internationally agreed criteria to be considered as unemployed for the purposes of the compilation of the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates.

Therefore, the CSO is producing a supplementary measure of unemployment in parallel with the routine Monthly Unemployment Estimates.

This COVID-19 Adjusted Monthly Unemployment measure includes those in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment in the calculation of the adjusted unemployment rate. It should be considered as the upper bound for the true rate of unemployment and the standard monthly rate as the lower bound.

This approach preserves the methodology of the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates series while at the same time providing transparency around the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market (see the Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Live Register and the Monthly Unemployment Estimates - March 2020 and the updated Technical Note - Monthly Unemployment and COVID-19 Adjusted Estimates - updated July 2020 for more details).”

Commenting on today’s publication, Catalina Gonzalez continued:

 ‘The COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in July 2020. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment is 5.0% in July 2020, the COVID-19 adjusted measure of unemployment indicates a rate as high as 16.7% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed.

The Monthly Unemployment Rate for July 2020 using standard methodology is 5.0%, up from 4.6% in June 2020. In July 2020, the Monthly Unemployment Rate for males and females are 5.2% and 4.7% respectively. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the Monthly Unemployment Rate for those aged 15 to 24 years is 16.0% while it is 3.7% for those aged 25 to 74 years.

As well as the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates for July 2020, the CSO have also published an alternative COVID-19 adjusted unemployment measure estimating the share of the labour force in July 2020 that were not working due to unemployment or who were out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment.

If all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment were classified as unemployed, this COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 16.5% for males and 16.9% for females. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the new COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 41.2% for those aged 15 to 24 years and 13.7% for those aged 25 to 74 years.’

Finally, commenting on recent proposed changes to the COVID-19 income supports such as the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme, Catalina Gonzalez added:

“The COVID-19 income supports were originally set up as short-term emergency income supports but they have been extended several times and there have been changes made in terms of the eligibility criteria and how they are being administered. While the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme were both expected, until recently, to cease in August, the latest announcements have indicated that the Pandemic Unemployment Payment is expected to continue into 2021 while the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme will be replaced by the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme from 01 September 2020.

The CSO will continue to evaluate the current income support schemes and any new schemes to determine whether any changes are required to the methodology for our traditional or COVID-19 adjusted estimates. Any changes we may make to the methodology in the future will be clearly outlined to users in the statistical release and accompanying material.”

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