Meeting 22

Macroeconomic Statistics Liaison Group Meeting

Minutes

1. David Purdue from the National Treasury Management Agency was welcomed to the MSLG.

   The Quarterly National and International Accounts for 2022Q4 were reviewed, following their publication on Friday 3^rd March 2023. The growth rate for the year remained unchanged, and the domestic indicators for the year were stable, despite the quarterly decrease.

   The criteria used to classify the ‘MNE-dominated’ and ‘other’ sectors provided in Table 3 of the “Gross Value Added for Foreign-owned Multinational Enterprises and Other Sectors Annual Results” was discussed, with the CSO undertaking to review and update the background notes to be clearer on the sectoral composition.

   Gross Value Added for Foreign - owned Multinational Enterprises and Other Sectors Annual Results for 2020

   The CSO also undertook to update the existing page in the National Account notes on contract manufacturing to better explain current arrangements, as the volume has increased significantly since the note was originally published. Current growth in contract manufacturing is split across the pharma and IT sectors.

   Contract Manufacturing

   The data source for quarterly investment was discussed. The Quarterly Accounts Survey collects changes in stocks, and acquisitions and sales of capital assets. The 2022Q4 change was largely driven by domestic spending on back to office equipment, which is unlikely to sustain.

   Quarterly Accounts Survey

2. National Accounts Statistician Shauna Allen presented the methodology used to produce the CSO’s recent T+30 GDP estimate, an indicator which Eurostat has been publishing since April 2016, and which Member States are encouraged to produce and publish nationally. Eurostat’s 2022Q4 flash estimate was based on 18 Member States, covering 94% of EU GDP. Twelve countries, including Ireland, publish their flash estimates nationally. The CSO will publish the next Preliminary GDP Estimate on Thursday 27^th April, a day before the Eurostat release.
3. Kevin Timoney of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council presented key findings from his publication “Household Consumption and savings in Ireland since the Covid-19 pandemic.”, which had been discussed at the MLSG meeting last December. Household consumption in the National Accounts is tracking weaker than comparable categories of credit cards spending. This is also evident in the VAT receipts and the effective VAT rate.

   The output data is less volatile than expenditure data, and the fourth quarter tends to be particularly volatile, given the year end activities of large multinational enterprises. Building on the T+30 experience, the current T+60 process is also under review for potential improvements.

   Final annualised data for 2021 is not yet available for this year’s Annual National Accounts cycle, but will be reviewed on receipt in advance of publication in the summer. A new, detailed VAT dataset may eventually be a more useful source for detailed consumption indicators, and the CSO may change the production processes accordingly, once some outstanding metadata queries are clarified.