Meeting 21

Macroeconomic Statistics Liaison Group Meeting

Location:        Microsoft Teams

Date:               Tuesday, 6^th December 2022

Present:         Thomas Conefrey (Central Bank), Michael Flanagan (D/Fin), Oisín Tarrant (D/Fin), Kieran McQuinn (ESRI), Tom McDonnell (NERI), Simon Barry (Ulster Bank), Seamus Coffey (UCC)

CSO: Chris Sibley, John Sheridan, Michael Connolly, Yvonne Hayden, Ruth O’Shaughnessy.

Minutes

1.   The Quarterly National and International Accounts for 2022Q3 were reviewed, following their publication on Friday 2^nd December 2022.

• Capital investment in machinery and equipment for industry and data centres has been running high for the last number of years, and the slight fall in Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) is largely driven by investment data rather than Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE).
• The IPP investment in this quarter’s manufacturing sector results was discussed, along with the level of depreciation of existing IPP assets.
• Much of growth in contract manufacturing exports can be explained by an element of merchanting activity shifting to contract manufacturing as companies change their production arrangements abroad.
• The divergence between the construction index and construction expenditure in the QNA is largely explained by timing differences between the different data sources, and this is being monitored closely by both areas within the CSO.
• Inter-group activity was confirmed as the main driver of the increase in miscellaneous business service exports, and royalty suppression in the ICT sector will be reviewed.
• Data sources and methodologies for the compilation of household consumption are currently under review, particularly for 2020, as survey response rates dropped significantly during this period. This item will be on the MLSG agenda after the ANA publication.

2. The “Breakdown of Compensation of Employees by Foreign and Domestic Enterprises” included as Table 7.4 in the 2022Q3 release was presented. Using PMOD data and calculated at microdata level, the series is available from 2019Q1 onwards. The release uses the institutional sector accounts described in ESA 2010 to define foreign and domestic enterprises, and follows the same methodology as the sector accounts annual breakdown. A seasonally adjusted constant price series broken down by NACE is planned for March 2023. It is planned to produce the GVA tables on the same basis for the 2023 Annual National Accounts, using the microdata, rather than the current “MNE-dominated” labelling.

The future work programme was reviewed, which includes constant price wages data, CoE by gender, and employee numbers.

Table 7.4: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter32022/compensationofemployees/

3. Yvonne Hayden presented the methodology and data sources used in the recent Fronter Series Publication “Compilation of a Digital Supply Table Using Business Enterprise Surveys – 2020”. The digital economy incorporates all economic activity reliant on, or significantly enhanced using digital inputs, including digital technologies, digital infrastructure, digital services, and data. It refers to all producers and consumers, including government, that are utilising these digital inputs in their economic activities.
The publication attempts to illustrate the level of goods and services produced in the economy that are digitally transacted: that is, digitally ordered and/or digitally delivered. The tables also show the value of digital products that are produced in the economy. This latter estimate is based on an international classification of digital goods and digital services. This is the first time the CSO has produced this data, and is among the first national statistical institutes in Europe to make estimates of the digital economy through the supply and use framework. The results are experimental at this stage. However, they demonstrate the impact digitalisation has had on the Irish economy.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/fp/fp-dtie/digitaltransactionsintheirisheconomy2020/

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/digitaleconomy/

4. Beginning in 2023, the CSO will begin publishing 30-day flash estimates of quarterly GDP. The 30-day flash estimate of 2022Q4 GDP is likely to be published as a Frontier Series Publication in February 2023. While this measure is of limited benefit to domestic users, it is in line with Eurostat requirements. A NACE breakdown may make the indicator more relevant to domestic users.

5. The MLSG requested that a presentation on the data sources and methodology used in the compilation of Sector Accounts be made at the next MSLG meeting, following the publication of the 2022Q4 results in March.

6.  The MLSG was advised that the Terms of Reference on the CSO website had been updated to reflect current practice, and that it was planned to hold the meeting following the publication of the Annual National Accounts in Ardee Road.