Loretta O’Sullivan (BOI), Terry Quinn (Central Bank), Stephen Byrne (Central Bank), Cliona McDonnell (D/Fin), Brendan O’Connor (D/Fin), Kieran McQuinn (ESRI), Kevin Timoney (IFAC), Austin Hughes (KBC), Tom McDonnell (NERI).
CSO: Michael Connolly, Peter Culhane, Seán O’Connor, Annette Hayes, Ruth O’Shaughnessy.
Annette Hughes (EY), Seamus Coffey (IFAC), Simon Barry (Ulster Bank)
1. The 2019Q3 Quarterly National Accounts, published on 13th December, were reviewed. The non-additivity caused by the indirect approach to seasonal adjustment in the QNA which has had a significant impact on the aggregates of GDP and GNP was discussed. Revisions to consumption mainly arose from a methodological change related to the treatment of private cars data which had been flagged at a previous meeting. Revisions in private investment were explained by significant stock changes. The modified final domestic demand indicator does not include stocks, so may be a more appropriate indicator than modified domestic demand. Trends in ‘other building and construction’ were discussed, with the possible use of administrative data sources to be investigated, given the traditionally poor response rates to construction surveys.
2. The new legal requirement to provide T+60 quarterly estimates was highlighted. The first publication at this new timeframe is scheduled for 6 March 2020. For the first quarter of 2020, an initial annual estimate will be released six days after the end of May, with the normal annual estimate, incorporating all revisions, to follow in June / July.
3. Seán O’Connor from the Administrative Data Centre presented an overview of the potential benefits arising from the integration of the new PAYE modernisation monthly administrative dataset into the statistical production system. From 1st January 2019, employers are required to report their employees’ pay and deductions to Revenue as they are being paid. This new data source will address some of the difficulties experienced with the P35 data series and should result in significant quality improvements. There is enormous statistical potential due to the high-frequency nature of this new data source.
4. Peter Culhane presented recent work in the Institutional Sector Accounts to split the Financial and Non-Financial Corporation sectors into Domestic and Foreign, in line with the last phase of recommendations from the Economic Statistics Review Group. This allows for better analysis of Gross Value Added, Gross Operating Surplus, Compensation of Employees, Profit Share, and Taxes on Income and Wealth generated in the domestic economy. This new breakdown is available through Statbank by NACE and sector. This work will be presented at a seminar on Sector Accounts and Globalisation in the Government Press Centre on January 17th 2020.