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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523 Deirdre O'Leary (+353)21 453 5152
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, 05 January 2017, 11am

Monthly Services Index

November 2016 (Provisional) October 2016 (Final)

 Monthly Services Index
 (Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
November 2015118.8-0.87.2
October 2016126.10.75.3
November 2016129.42.68.9

Monthly Services increased by 2.6% in November 2016

The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 2.6% in November 2016 when compared with October  2016 while, in the year to November 2016, there was an increase of 8.9%.

On a monthly basis, the largest increases in November 2016 were in Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+4.1%), Information and Communication (+3.0%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+3.0%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+2.7%) and Administrative and Support Service Activities (+2.6%). Other Service Activities (-4.2%) recorded a decrease in the month to November 2016. 

On an annual basis, the sectors showing increases since November 2015 were Information and Communication (+17.2%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+13.2%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+9.3%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+7.8%) and Other Service Activities (+4.1%). Administrative and Support Service Activities (-15.7%) and Transportation and Storage (-5.3%) recorded decreases in the year to November 2016.

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities0.400790.78367
Administration and Support Service Activities0.1747-1.34782
Accommodation and Food Service Activities0.183330.63295
Information and Communication0.901024.79181
Other Service Activities-0.174350.16696
Transportation and Storage0.05013-0.51822
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles1.032374.34089
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
   Base Year: 2010=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
     
2010 99.9 -2.4
2011 103.3 3.4
2012 106.0 2.6
2013 107.3 1.2
2014 111.7 4.1
2015 118.1 5.7
     
20152nd quarter115.0-2.62.8
 3rd quarter120.54.86.4
 4th quarter118.6-1.64.5
     
20161st quarter123.54.24.6
 2nd quarter123.0-0.47.0
 3rd quarter124.91.53.7
     
2015May113.7-1.13.1
 June116.32.33.1
 July124.77.210.1
 August117.6-5.74.2
 September119.31.45.0
 October119.80.55.7
 November118.8-0.87.2
 December117.2-1.40.7
     
2016January123.75.61.0
 February123.80.18.0
 March123.1-0.55.1
 April122.2-0.76.3
 May123.10.78.3
 June123.80.56.4
 July124.70.80.1
 August124.80.06.1
 September125.20.45.0
 October126.10.75.3
 November2129.42.68.9
     
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to November 2016 
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents 
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
        Base Year: 2010=100
   Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
   NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
          
2010  100.0 4.6 99.9 10.6
2011  107.3 7.3 114.2 14.3
2012  109.7 2.3 118.9 4.1
2013  105.5 -3.8 112.7 -5.2
2014  108.9 3.2 117.6 4.4
2015  120.5 10.7 133.9 13.8
          
20152nd quarter 121.71.112.1 138.45.716.7
 3rd quarter 121.0-0.610.6 134.2-3.013.4
 4th quarter 119.0-1.79.2 132.0-1.611.4
          
20161st quarter 125.95.84.6 131.0-0.80.1
 2nd quarter 124.8-0.92.5 136.74.4-1.2
 3rd quarter 129.23.56.7 142.54.26.2
          
2015May 123.31.813.8 141.24.619.4
 June 120.8-2.010.3 139.0-1.616.5
 July 123.62.313.6 137.1-1.318.2
 August 118.4-4.28.3 129.8-5.39.7
 September 121.12.39.7 135.74.612.4
 October 120.1-0.810.2 133.9-1.313.6
 November 117.4-2.311.7 130.6-2.515.2
 December 119.51.85.8 131.40.65.9
          
2016January 129.28.18.3 131.2-0.23.2
 February 124.8-3.44.5 130.1-0.9-2.3
 March 123.6-1.01.0 131.71.2-0.5
 April 125.51.53.6 135.63.00.5
 May 123.3-1.70.1 132.5-2.3-6.1
 June 125.51.73.9 142.17.22.3
 July 134.37.08.6 146.43.16.8
 August 126.5-5.86.8 139.2-5.07.3
 September 126.70.24.7 141.81.94.5
 October 129.01.87.4 145.52.68.6
 November3 132.93.013.2 154.86.418.5
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to November 2016
2 Retail sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1   
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
   NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2010  100.1 -10.5 100.0 -11.5 100.0 -7.7
2011  101.2 1.2 105.0 5.0 102.7 2.7
2012  103.5 2.2 107.2 2.1 109.9 7.0
2013  103.5 0.0 106.4 -0.8 112.0 1.9
2014  110.4 6.6 114.7 7.8 124.6 11.2
2015  121.6 10.2 130.5 13.9 134.4 7.8
              
20152nd quarter 118.52.110.0 133.610.317.1 126.2-6.26.5
 3rd quarter 124.34.911.9 136.32.121.9 134.06.25.0
 4th quarter 127.52.68.6 131.2-3.89.5 142.76.53.4
              
20161st quarter 134.05.115.5 141.47.816.8 148.33.910.2
 2nd quarter 132.7-1.011.9 133.9-5.40.2 149.10.518.1
 3rd quarter 129.3-2.64.0 137.52.70.9 132.9-10.9-0.8
              
2015May 120.11.19.0 135.42.915.4 126.3-2.24.3
 June 116.7-2.911.3 133.7-1.219.8 123.1-2.56.5
 July 124.46.716.5 140.24.828.3 133.38.38.6
 August 125.00.510.4 134.9-3.717.4 135.81.95.5
 September 123.3-1.49.0 133.9-0.720.3 132.9-2.21.1
 October 127.93.712.3 135.81.418.6 142.97.68.3
 November 126.2-1.35.9 131.3-3.310.6 137.6-3.7-2.5
 December 128.41.77.5 126.4-3.70.3 147.67.34.7
              
2016January 134.44.716.4 143.713.721.6 147.4-0.18.5
 February 134.60.116.8 139.0-3.313.8 152.73.515.8
 March 133.1-1.113.4 141.61.915.3 144.8-5.26.4
 April 133.20.112.2 136.9-3.44.0 149.53.315.7
 May 130.8-1.88.9 128.9-5.8-4.8 147.0-1.716.4
 June 133.92.414.8 135.85.41.5 150.72.522.4
 July 131.1-2.15.4 143.75.82.5 133.8-11.20.4
 August 123.3-6.0-1.4 129.3-10.0-4.2 126.9-5.2-6.5
 September 133.38.18.1 139.57.84.1 137.98.63.8
 October 134.40.85.1 140.60.83.5 137.3-0.4-3.9
 November3 138.02.79.3 144.12.59.7 139.61.71.4
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to November 2016
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2010=100
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
   NACE 69-75 NACE 77-83
Period  Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
          
2010  100.1 -15.9 99.9 2.7
2011  101.2 1.1 92.7 -7.2
2012  90.4 -10.7 99.3 7.2
2013  85.2 -5.7 121.5 22.3
2014  84.7 -0.6 121.6 0.1
2015  92.0 8.6 123.2 1.3
          
20152nd quarter 87.0-5.15.7 125.62.83.8
 3rd quarter 95.69.911.6 121.9-2.9-1.3
 4th quarter 93.8-1.97.7 123.00.90.0
          
20161st quarter 92.4-1.50.7 116.1-5.6-5.0
 2nd quarter 96.14.010.5 105.6-9.0-15.9
 3rd quarter 92.4-3.8-3.3 105.60.0-13.4
          
2015May 85.93.94.9 133.015.99.8
 June 92.37.513.5 129.0-3.05.2
 July 96.54.512.6 130.00.84.5
 August 97.20.717.3 121.6-6.5-2.4
 September 93.0-4.35.4 114.2-6.1-6.2
 October 89.3-4.0-0.3 120.05.1-4.0
 November 91.72.78.9 128.57.16.0
 December 100.49.614.7 120.5-6.2-1.8
          
2016January 92.9-7.5-2.0 118.6-1.6-1.9
 February 94.82.16.6 114.7-3.3-7.4
 March 89.4-5.7-2.1 114.90.2-5.8
 April 92.23.211.5 108.4-5.7-5.6
 May 98.67.014.8 106.3-1.9-20.1
 June 97.3-1.35.4 102.1-4.0-20.8
 July 84.1-13.6-12.8 102.20.1-21.4
 August 94.011.7-3.2 105.63.3-13.1
 September 99.05.36.5 109.13.3-4.5
 October 94.9-4.16.3 105.6-3.2-12.0
 November3 98.84.17.8 108.32.6-15.7
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to November 2016
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1 
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
   NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
              
2010  100.2 -10.6 99.6 6.5 99.9 -17.5
2011  103.8 3.6 103.4 3.8 100.6 0.8
2012  109.4 5.4 112.8 9.1 96.9 -3.6
2013  111.0 1.5 119.8 6.2 93.3 -3.8
2014  116.7 5.1 128.0 6.8 99.9 7.1
2015  116.2 -0.4 130.7 2.1 102.3 2.4
              
20152nd quarter 114.6-6.7-2.1 118.8-8.5-10.2 106.01.610.2
 3rd quarter 115.50.8-2.9 138.016.26.1 103.7-2.2-1.8
 4th quarter 111.8-3.2-8.1 136.1-1.46.5 95.3-8.1-11.5
              
20161st quarter 109.5-2.0-10.9 149.29.615.0 97.42.2-6.7
 2nd quarter 111.11.5-3.1 150.00.526.3 96.5-0.8-8.9
 3rd quarter 111.40.2-3.6 154.73.212.1 95.8-0.8-7.6
              
2015May 113.82.7-1.2 108.6-14.6-14.6 108.31.517.0
 June 119.34.93.9 120.510.9-11.0 103.0-5.01.6
 July 120.61.05.8 143.619.26.2 116.913.516.7
 August 112.9-6.4-6.9 131.1-8.73.7 96.5-17.5-15.9
 September 113.10.2-7.0 139.46.38.5 97.71.3-4.0
 October 115.01.7-4.7 139.80.38.8 103.96.34.9
 November 111.9-2.7-4.6 140.20.312.2 89.9-13.5-19.9
 December 108.4-3.2-14.7 128.4-8.4-1.4 92.02.4-17.6
              
2016January 107.8-0.6-14.4 145.813.5-0.1 92.30.3-16.3
 February 110.22.2-10.8 151.03.628.9 94.72.5-10.0
 March 110.60.4-7.3 150.8-0.119.5 105.111.07.9
 April 109.6-0.9-1.0 146.5-2.915.2 99.8-5.1-6.5
 May 112.02.2-1.6 150.93.038.9 96.1-3.7-11.3
 June 111.8-0.2-6.3 152.51.026.6 93.7-2.5-8.9
 July 112.30.4-6.9 151.6-0.65.6 95.72.1-18.1
 August 115.93.22.6 156.83.419.6 94.8-0.9-1.7
 September 106.1-8.4-6.2 155.7-0.711.8 96.82.1-0.9
 October 105.4-0.6-8.3 159.52.414.1 97.70.9-5.9
 November2 106.00.6-5.3 164.33.017.2 93.6-4.24.1
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to November 2016
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

Introduction  

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

 

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

 

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

 

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp

 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-83)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

 

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2010. Using data taken from the 2010 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach. 

 

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows; respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2010 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2010 ASI, is applied. The reason for this change in methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

 

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

 

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau.  The ARIMA option in X-13ARIMA-SEATS is used to forecast and backcast the series in order to have sufficient data to run the seasonal adjustment, as currently we have less than five years of data. Due to the lack of a sufficiently long series the series are not adjusted for Easter and Trading effects.  The seasonal estimates do, however, take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

 

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

 

Rebase 2010 – Changes

The main reasons for differences in the new rebased and updated MSI series in comparison with the MSI (base year 2009 =100) are as follows:

  • New cell baseweights were taken from the ASI 2010.
  • A new cell structure/breakdown has been adopted for each sector.  Each enterprise is placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria:
  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000  and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA  is less than €2,500,000
  • The new baseweights are now updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA as opposed to changes in respondents’ reported turnover.
  • To keep with the classifications adopted by ASI 2010 a number of NACE sectors have been excluded from the updated MSI, i.e.
  • NACE 66 – Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • NACE 90 – Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • NACE 91 – Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • NACE 77 - Rental and leasing activities are no longer in Other Business Activities. NACE 77 is now included in Administrative and Support Service Activities.
  • The inclusion of new and revised micro data.
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