Press Statement

Preasráiteas

29 April 2021

Go to release: Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources 2014-2020

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (29 April 2021) published a Frontier Series Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources 2014-2020.

Commenting on the report, Karola Graupner, Statistician, explains:

“The publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Output (FAQ). The report is experimental by nature and users should be aware that the administrative data used in this analysis was not originally created to measure migration flows.

The findings will be different to the Official Population and Migration Estimates release which are primarily based on survey results from respondents to the CSO’s Labour Force Survey. The Official Population and Migration Estimates are also subject to revision once the results of the next census become available as this is where the Official and definitive inter-censal net migration figure is derived. In addition, immigration flows for census years in the CSO’s Official Population and Migration Estimates release are obtained from responses to the Census of Population. (see Population and Migration Estimates April 2020).

This Frontier Series report aims to estimate migration flows, aligned with official definitions as closely as possible, by suggesting residency based on different administrative record activity rules and illustrating the results from the respective methodological approaches adopted.

It uses pseudonymised administrative data sources (including Revenue, the Department of Education and the Department of Social Protection) to produce experimental estimates of immigration and emigration flows in Ireland in recent years, by sex, age, nationality and economic status. Pseudonymising the data means personal information can no longer be attributed to a specific individual when the data is being analysed.”

Commenting on the findings of the Frontier Series Migration Estimates for Ireland from Administrative Data Sources 2014-2020, Karola Graupner, Statistician, said:

“Net migration over the six years 2014 to 2019 was estimated to be between 190,400 and 199,100 people using the annual datasets methodology.

The number of immigrants was estimated to be in the range of 778,300 to 897,200 while emigrants were estimated to be between 587,900 and 698,100 between 2014 and 2019 using the annual methodology.

Based on the monthly experimental methodology, net migration fell from 13,400 to 4,800 in the first half of 2019 compared with the same six months of 2020.”

Further commenting on the report, Karola Graupner, said:

“Net migration was positive for non-Irish migrants between 2014 and 2019, i.e., more non-Irish people arrived than left. By 2019 the highest numbers of non-Irish immigrants were from Brazil and Romania based on the annual dataset methodology adopted.

Between 2014 and 2019 net migration was similar for males and females, ranging from 94,400 to 97,900 for males during this time period and ranging from 95,800 to 101,200 for females, using the annual methodology.

Under the monthly methodology, Irish, Brazilian, Romanian and Indian were the top four nationalities migrating into Ireland in 2019. A similar trend continued for the first half of 2020.”

Editor's Note:

This publication is categorised as a CSO Frontier Series Publication. Particular care must be taken when interpreting the statistics in this experimental analysis.

The Official definition of an immigrant (as per the European Commission) is a person who establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country. For emigrants the Official definition is a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, who ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months. If a migrant is present and/or absent for more than three months but less than 12 months except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends or relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage, they are considered a short term migrant. An example of a short-term migrant is a seasonal worker.

Net migration is defined as the net difference in the number of persons coming to the State minus the number of persons leaving, i.e. the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants.

The methodology in this report does not strictly adhere to the Official definition for migrants, as some or all short-term migrants are included in the immigration and emigration estimates. With the advent of new real-time administrative data sources, such as PAYE Modernisation (PMOD), it will be possible to measure activity within and across years more accurately in future.

This report aims to estimate migration flows aligned with Official definitions as closely as possible, by suggesting residency based on different administrative record activity rules and illustrating the results from the respective methodological approach adopted.

CSO Frontier Series may use new methods which are under development and/or data sources which may be incomplete, for example new administrative data sources. Publishing outputs under the Frontier series allows the CSO to provide useful new information to users and get informed feedback on these new methods and outputs, while at the same time ensuring that the limitations are well explained and understood.

In using the increasingly varied sources of data available, the CSO must ensure that we continue to protect and secure data. Our aim is to ensure that citizens can live in an informed society while at the same time ensuring adherence to all relevant data protection legislation. The range and depth of demand for data cannot be met from survey data alone. Analysis of new data sources is needed, including administrative records held by public sector bodies.

As well as the strict legal protections set out in the Statistics Act, 1993, and other existing regulations, we are committed to protecting individual privacy. For this reason, all identifiable information from each of the data sources used in our analysis, (such as name, date of birth or address), are removed before use and only anonymised statistical aggregates are produced.

-- ENDS --