Probation Re-offending Statistics 2020

Introduction

This publication provides figures for the re-offending rates of those placed on Probation, Community Service and Post Release Supervision Orders in the year 2020.

The term “offences” in this report refers to crime incidents known to An Garda Síochána and recorded as such in the Garda PULSE (Police Using Leading Systems Effectively) system. Due to timing issues in respect to the extraction of data, figures may be revised after this publication.

Data collection

These figures were produced using a combination of An Garda Síochána and Probation Service records. Since there is no direct link between the two systems, a statistical matching protocol was devised by the CSO to match Probation and Garda records. This protocol was updated in 2019 to capitalise on technological improvements that have become available in the 5 years since the report was first published.

Due to the absence of a unique identifier in the Irish Criminal Justice system the matching process involves the comparison of individual records. It is not possible to find a match for all Probation records in the Garda PULSE dataset. This may be the case because of data quality issues, because the subjects name is a common one or because the subject provided incorrect details to law enforcement officials.

CSO guidelines state a minimum of 95% of records must be matched. CSO guidelines state a minimum of 95% of records must be matched. In the 2017 and 2018 cohort 100% of records were matched. 

In the region of 95% of all matches used in the publication are matched automatically. That is, the name, address and date of the birth details for the subject in the Probation dataset corresponds exactly with those details in the Garda PULSE dataset.

Due to data quality issues and limitations on the reliability of some information provided to law enforcement authorities the remaining 5% of matches require manual examination. There are clear guidelines in place in relation to the selection or rejection of matches, but a certain level of subjectivity is inevitable in the absence of a unique identifier.

Re-offending

For this report there are two conditions which must be met in order for an individual to be classified as a re-offender:

1. The individual must commit a recorded incident recorded on the Garda Síochána PULSE systems within a defined period of the date of their Probation Order. The length of the period considered varies for different cohorts. The period is 1 year for the 2020 cohort.
2. There must be a conviction for this incident within two years of the date on which the incident was recorded.

For example, if a person was placed on a Probation or Community Service Order on December 31st, 2020 and committed an offence on the December 31st, 2021, they would be considered as having re-offended if court proceedings leading to a conviction were concluded on or before December 31st, 2023.

Figure 5.1 below shows the time periods and process of establishing these re-offending indicators for the probation re-offending of people who received their probation order in 2018 (three-year re-offending), 2019 (two-year re-offending), and 2020 (one-year re-offending). The three-year re-offending period refers to people who received Probation Orders in 2018. The time period for a re-offence to occur is three-years (2018 to 2021) and a further two-years are left for court decisions (convictions/acquittals) to take place. The one-year re-offending period relates to people who received Probation Orders in 2020. The time period for a re-offence to occur is one-year (2021) and a further year is left for court decisions (convictions/acquittals) to take place.

Exclusions

When considering re-offending, certain offence types were historically excluded. These offences were mainly traffic offences and some animal welfare offences. For re-offending analysis from 2017 onwards (both prison and probation re-offending) all offences resulting with a court conviction are classified as a re-offending offence for the purpose of measuring re-offending.

Probation type

This report considers three types of probation: Probation Orders, Community Service Orders and Post Release Supervision Orders.

Removal of the ‘Statistics Under Reservation’ designation from Probation Re-Offending Statistics

The CSO published its fifth CSO Review of the Quality of Recorded Crime Statistics in October 2023. As part of this review the CSO has lifted the ‘Under Reservation’ designation from all Recorded Crime data disseminated after Quarter 1 (Q1) 2023.

CSO has made this decision because the terms of its various key recommendations from the Quality Improvement Proposal from 2018 and Quality Reviews have been met, principally:

• The development and implementation of a formal data quality management system for PULSE that ensures fit-for-purpose crime data (developments throughout 2022 & 2023 culminating in quality checking and publishing of those results, with a focus on risk management).
• An independent review conducted on behalf of An Garda Síochána (AGS) which found evidence of good controls for the acknowledged risks to data collection and quality.
• There is now a senior manager (appointed in 2019) within AGS who has overall responsibility for data quality.
• The provision of a comprehensive and publicly available document explaining how crime is recorded (2020).

In addition, a new Memorandum of Understanding has been agreed between CSO and AGS which explicitly outlines expectations concerning AGS quality checking and reporting of same. The standard quality checks of PULSE data carried out as part of this fifth CSO Quality Review show evidence of consistent high data quality levels.

AGS has worked over the past number of years to advance the assurance levels which can be provided around Garda PULSE data, and in particular the quality management developments of 2022 and 2023. This work has seen the development of quality assurance processes by AGS over the period which has culminated in the implementation of a more formal data quality management system by AGS.

The recorded crime series has been progressively improving over time with the cumulative impact of the improved data quality, assessment, and assurance measures being seen in a higher data quality level as noted in various CSO reviews in recent years.

Given the new AGS controls for quality checking and reporting, coupled with the CSO reserving the right to do its own reviews, a level of assurance has been provided warranting the lifting of the "Under Reservation” categorisation. 

However, some judgement should be exercised by users when using data produced in the earlier years of the recorded crime time series given the legacy quality issues which have been commented on in various reviews. For instance, detections data pre and post 2018 are not comparable given the improved governance controls introduced in that year. The CSO will continue to inform users of the quality of the data they are using, and of any particular issues which may need to be noted around time series comparability as they arise.

Crime recording

Incidents reported, or which become known to members of An Garda Síochána, are recorded when, on the balance of probability, a Garda determines that a criminal offence defined by law has taken place, and there is no credible evidence to the contrary. If it is subsequently determined that a criminal incident did not take place, the record is invalidated and is not counted in the statistics. If a person makes a report and subsequently withdraws it, then this too is invalidated unless there is evidence to suggest that, by reasonable probability, the offence has taken place. 

For criminal incidents where victim confirmation is required (e.g. assault, fraud), a criminal incident is recorded only where the victim confirms the incident or where there is evidence to suggest that by reasonable probability it occurred.

Crime classification

A criminal incident is classified as a particular offence type at the initial recording of that incident. However, upon investigation, it may later become apparent that an alternative offence type should be used. In this event, the record is amended to reflect this. Re-classification based on court proceedings only occurs in relation to Homicide offences. The classification is used in this publication is the ICCS.

Custodial/Non-custodial court outcomes

For the purposes of showing re-offending sanctions in this publication, court outcomes have been classified to provide aggregate estimates of either a custodial or non-custodial reprimand. The outcomes in the table below have been classified for this purpose under either custodial or no-custodial sanction. In a small number of cases, it is not currently possible to define the re-offending offence court outcome as custodial or non-custodial. For the purpose of this publication cases that are not classified have been excluded from the custodial / non-custodial estimates.

Classification	Court outcome description
Custodial	Detention Detention - Consecutive Detention - Part Suspended Juvenile Detention between the ages of 12-17 years Juvenile Detention Consecutive Sentence 12-17 years Imprisonment Imprisonment - Consecutive Imprisonment - Consecutive & Part Suspended Imprisonment - Part Suspended Imprisonment in Absence Imprisonment in Absence - Consecutive Remand on Continuing Bail
Non-Custodial	Disqualification - FOR LIFE Detention - Suspended Conviction / Probation Act Orders Dismiss Probation Act 1(2) Disqualification Conviction / Probation Act Orders Forthwith Fine Fine Imprisonment - Suspended Juvenile Fine Order Community Service Order Strike Out Community Service Order - Consecutive Unusual Result Withdrawn Imprisonment - Consecutive & Suspended Detention - Consecutive & Consecutive & Suspended

ICCS Offence Groups
01	Homicide offences	Murder Manslaughter Infanticide Manslaughter (traffic fatality) Dangerous driving causing death
02	Sexual offences	Rape of a male or female Rape Section 4 Unlawful carnal knowledge/Criminal law (Sexual Offences Act) 2006 Buggery Sexual offence involving mentally impaired person Aggravated sexual assault Sexual Assault Incest Child pornography offences Child pornography – obstruction of warrant Gross indecency
03	Attempts or Threats to Murder, Assaults, Harassments & Related offences	Murder – attempt Threat to kill or cause serious harm Assault causing harm Poisoning Assault or obstruction of Garda/official, resisting arrest Minor assault Coercion Harassment, stalking, threats Demanding payment of debt causing alarm Housing Act Menacing phone calls Incitement to hatred offences
04	Dangerous or Negligent Acts	Dangerous driving causing serious bodily harm Driving/In charge of a vehicle while over legal alcohol limit Driving/In charge of a vehicle while under the influence of drugs Endangerment with potential for serious harm or death Abandoning a child, child neglect and cruelty Unseaworthy/dangerous use of a boat or ship False alarm/interference with aircraft or air transport facilities Endangering traffic offences
05	Kidnapping & Related offences	False imprisonment Abduction of person under 16 years of age Human trafficking offences
06	Robbery, Extortion & Hijacking offences	Robbery of an establishment or institution Robbery of cash of goods in transit Robbery from the person Blackmail or extortion Carjacking, hijacking/unlawful seizure of aircraft/vessel
07	Burglary & Related offences	Aggravated burglary Burglary (not aggravated) Possession of an article (with intent to burgle, steal, demand)
08	Theft & Related offences	Theft/Unauthorised taking of a vehicle Interfering with vehicle (with intent to steal item or vehicle) Theft from person Theft from shop Theft from vehicle Theft/Unauthorised taking of a pedal cycle Theft of, or interference with, mail Handling or possession of stolen property Theft of other property
09	Fraud, Deception & Related offences	Fraud, deception, false pretence offences Forging an instrument to defraud Possession of an article for use in fraud, deception or extortion Falsification of accounts Offences under the Companies Act Offences under the Investment Intermediaries Act Offences under the Stock Exchange Act Money laundering Embezzlement Fraud against the European Union Importation/Sale/Supply of tobacco Counterfeiting notes and coins Counterfeiting of goods Bad debts criminal (Debtors Ireland) Corruption (involving public office holder)
10	Controlled Drug offences	Importation of drugs Cultivation or manufacture of drugs Possession of drugs for sale or supply Possession of drugs for personal use Forged or altered prescription offences Obstruction under the Drugs Act
11	Weapons & Explosives offences	Causing an explosion Making of explosives Possession of explosives Chemical weapons offences Discharging a firearm Possession of a firearm Possession of offensive weapons (not firearms) Fireworks offences (for sale, igniting etc.)
12	Damage to Property & to the Environment	Arson Criminal damage (not arson) Litter offences
13	Public Order & Other Social Code offences	Affray/Riot/Violent disorder Public order offences Drunkenness offences Air rage-disruptive or drunken behaviour on aircraft Forcible entry and occupation (not burglary) Trespass on lands or enclosed areas Liquor licensing offences Registered clubs offences Special restaurant offences Provision of intoxicating liquor to under 18 year olds Purchase or consumption of alcohol by under 18 year olds Sale of intoxicating liquor to under 18 year olds Brothel keeping Organisation of prostitution Prostitution, including soliciting etc. Offences under the Betting Acts Collecting money without permit, unauthorised collection Offences under Gaming and Lotteries Acts Permit/License offences for casual/street trading Allowing a child (under 16 years) to beg Bigamy Bestiality Indecency Begging
14	Road & Traffic offences (NEC)	Driving licence-failure to have, produce etc. Insurance-failure to have, produce, display etc. No tax, non-display of tax, unregistered vehicle etc. Misuse of Trade Licence Misuse of trailers, weight and other offences Obstruction under road traffic acts Other road offences Road transport – carriage of goods offences Public service vehicle offences Light rail offences (Luas)
15	Offences against Government, Justice Procedures & Organisation of Crime	Treason Breaches of Offences Against the State Acts Breaches of Official Secrets Act Impersonating member of An Garda Síochána Electoral offences including personation Public mischief-annoying phone calls, wasting police time Criminal Assets Bureau offences (organised crime) Conspiracy to commit a crime Perjury Interfering with a jury (embracery) Assisting offenders Public mischief, pervert course of justice, conceal offence Escape or help to escape from custody Prison offences Breach of Domestic Violence Order (protection, safety, barring) Breach of order under Family Law Act Breach of bail Failure to comply under Sex Offenders Act Other failure to comply with court order, jury summons, warrant etc.

NUTS2 and NUTS3 Regions

The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) were created by Eurostat in order to define territorial units for the production of regional statistics across the European Union. In 2003 the NUTS classification was established within a legal framework (Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003).

As the administrative territorial breakdown of EU Member States is the basis of the NUTS classification, changes made under the 2014 Local Government Act prompted a revision to the Irish NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 Regions. These changes included the amalgamation of the local authorities of Tipperary North and South, Limerick City and County Councils and Waterford City and County Councils. In addition, three Regional Assemblies were established (Northern & Western, Southern, Eastern & Midland).

The main changes at NUTS 3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East into the Mid-West NUTS 3 region and the movement of Louth from the Border to the Mid-East NUTS 3 Region. There are now three NUTS 2 Regions which correspond to the Regional Assemblies established in the 2014 Local Government Act and are groupings of the new NUTS 3 Regions. The revisions made to the NUTS boundaries have been given legal status under Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066. The new NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 structure and classification are displayed in the table below:

Northern & Western NUTS2 Region		Southern NUTS2 Region		Eastern & Midland NUTS2 Region
Border	Cavan Donegal Leitrim Monaghan Sligo	Mid-West	Clare Limerick Tipperary	Dublin	Dublin City Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Fingal South Dublin
		South-East	Carlow Kilkenny Waterford Wexford	Mid-East	Kildare Louth Meath Wicklow
West	Galway Mayo Roscommon	South-West	Cork Kerry	Midlands	Laois Longford Offaly Westmeath

Personal characteristics

CSO publish crime related statistics classified by the personal characteristics of people linked to justice procedures. In the Probation Re-Offending publication these characteristics are based on data captured at the time of the justice sanction (probation order) being issued. These include:

• Age categories (Years)
• Gender/Sex categories (Male or Female)
• Dwelling location (County or Region)