Probation Re-offending Statistics 2013, 2014 and 2015 Cohorts

Introduction

This publication provides figures for the re-offending rates of those placed on Probation, Community Service and Post Release Supervision Orders in the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 (the 2013, 2014 and 2015 cohorts).

The term “offences” in this report refers to crime incidents known to An Garda Síochána and recorded as such in the Garda PULSE (Police Using Leading Systems Effectively) system.  Because of timing issues with respect to the extraction of data, figures may be revised after this publication. 

Data collection

These figures were produced using a combination of Garda Síochána and Probation Service records. Since there is no direct link between the two systems, a statistical matching protocol was devised by the CSO to match Probation and Garda records. This protocol was updated in 2019 to capitalise on technological improvements that have become available in the 5 years since the report was first published.

Due to the absence of a unique identifier in the Irish Criminal Justice system the matching process involves the comparison of individual records. It is not possible to find a match for all Probation records in the Garda PULSE dataset. This may be the case because of data quality issues, because the subjects name is a common one or because the subject provided incorrect details to law enforcement officials. In the case of the 2014 cohort, 22 records were not included in the analysis because of a technical issue in the transfer of data. The 22 records related to individuals sentenced in relation to high volume crimes

CSO guidelines state a minimum of 95% of records must be matched. In the 2015 cohort 99% of records were matched. The percentage matched in the 2014 and 2013 cohorts were 96% and 97% respectively.

In the region of 60% of all matches used in the publication are matched automatically. That is, the name, address and date of the birth details for the subject in the Probation dataset corresponds exactly with those details in the Garda PULSE dataset.

Due to data quality issues and limitations on the reliability of some information provided to law enforcement authorities the remaining 40% of matches require manual examination. There are clear guidelines in place in relation to the selection or rejection of matches, but a certain level of subjectivity is inevitable in the absence of a unique identifier.

Reoffending

For this report there are two conditions which must be met in order for an individual to be classified as a re-offender:

1. The individual must commit a recorded incident within a defined period of the date of their Probation Order. The length of the period considered varies for different cohorts. The period is 3 years for the 2013 cohort, 2 years for the 2014 cohort and 1 year for the 2015 cohort.
2. There must be a conviction for this incident within two years of the date on which the incident was recorded.

For example, if a person was placed on a Probation or Community Service Order on December 31^st2015, and committed an offence on the December 31^st, 2016, they would be considered as having reoffended if court proceedings leading to a conviction were concluded on or before December 31^st, 2018.

Exclusions

When considering reoffending, certain offence types are excluded. These offences include mainly traffic offences and some animal welfare offences. A complete list is available on request.

Probation type

This report considers three types of probation:  Probation Orders, Community Service Orders and Post Release Supervision Orders.  

Crime recording

Incidents reported, or which become known to members of An Garda Síochána, are recorded when, on the balance of probability, a Garda determines that a criminal offence defined by law has taken place, and there is no credible evidence to the contrary.  If it is subsequently determined that a criminal incident did not take place, the record is invalidated and is not counted in the statistics.  If a person makes a report and subsequently withdraws it, then this too is invalidated unless there is evidence to suggest that, by reasonable probability, the offence has taken place. 

For criminal incidents where victim confirmation is required (e.g. assault, fraud), a criminal incident is recorded only where the victim confirms the incident or where there is evidence to suggest that by reasonable probability it occurred.

Crime Classification

A criminal incident is classified as a particular offence type at the initial recording of that incident.  However, upon investigation, it may later become apparent that an alternative offence type should be used.  In this event, the record is amended to reflect this.  Re-classification based on court proceedings only occurs in relation to homicide offences. The classification is used in this publication is the ICCSq.

ICCSQ Offence Groups 

NUTS2 and NUTS3 Regions

The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) were created by Eurostat in order to define territorial units for the production of regional statistics across the European Union. In 2003 the NUTS classification was established within a legal framework (Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003).

As the administrative territorial breakdown of EU Member States is the basis of the NUTS classification, changes made under the 2014 Local Government Act prompted a revision to the Irish NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 Regions. These changes included the amalgamation of the local authorities of Tipperary North and South, Limerick City and County Councils and Waterford City and County Councils. In addition three Regional Assemblies were established (Northern & Western, Southern, Eastern & Midland).

The main changes at NUTS 3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East into the Mid-West NUTS 3 region and the movement of Louth from the Border to the Mid-East NUTS 3 Region. There are now three NUTS 2 Regions which correspond to the Regional Assemblies established in the 2014 Local Government Act and are groupings of the new NUTS 3 Regions. The revisions made to the NUTS boundaries have been given legal status under Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066. The new NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 structure and classification are displayed in the table below:

NUTS2 Code

NUTS 2 Name

NUTS3 Code

NUTS 3 Name

 County 

IE04

Northern & Western

IE041

Border

Donegal

Sligo

Leitrim

Cavan

Monaghan

IE042

West

Galway

Mayo

Roscommon

IE05

Southern

IE051

Mid-West

Clare

Tipperary

Limerick

IE052

South-East

Waterford

Kilkenny

Carlow

Wexford

IE053

South-West

Cork

Kerry

IE06

Eastern & Midland 

IE061

Dublin

Dublin

IE062

Mid-East

Wicklow

Kildare

Meath

Louth

IE063

Midlands

Longford

Westmeath

Offaly

Laois

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