These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by the CSO.
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CSO statistical release, , 11am
This release provides information on the level of recorded reoffending by offenders that were placed under the supervision of the Probation Service. The recidivism rate is the percentage of people who were convicted of a crime incident that was recorded within three years of date of their Probation Order. For example, if an offender was sentenced to Probation on December 31st, 2012 and they committed an offence on December 31st, 2015 for which a conviction was obtained on or before December 31st, 2017 they would be included as a recidivist.
The rate of recidivism for the 2012 cohort of Probation Service users was 46.9%. The corresponding figure for the 2011 cohort is 46.8%. The rate of reoffending by males (47.5% in the 2012 cohort, 47.7% in the 2011 cohort) is higher than that by females (42.8% in the 2012 cohort, 40.5% in the 2011 cohort). The gap between genders is decreasing and is down significantly on the double-digit gap which was present in earlier years of the series. See table 4.1.
There is an inverse relationship between age and recidivism rates. Persons under 18 are more than twice as likely to reoffend than those aged over 45. The rate for those under 18 was 70.8% for those in the 2012 cohort and 70.4% for those in the 2011 cohort. For those over 45 the rates were 33.6% and 32.5% respectively. See fig 1.1.
Individuals sentenced to a Probation Order give an undertaking to the court that they will be of good behaviour, avoid further crime and obey the conditions of the order. Those sentenced to a Community Service Order are required to do 40 to 240 hours of unpaid work in the community. The level of reoffending is higher among individuals sentenced to a Probation Order (52.3% in the 2012 cohort, 50.0% in the 2011 cohort) than those sentenced to a Community Service Order (42.3% in the 2012 cohort, 44% in the 2011 cohort).
| Age group | Recidivism rate |
|---|---|
| <18 | 70.8 |
| 18-24 | 54.4 |
| 25-44 | 40.5 |
| 45-64 | 33.6 |
| 65 + | 33.3 |
|
Revised Recidivism rates have been calculated for the 2008, 2009 and 2010 cohorts. The revised data is available in Chapter 4 of this publication Revised Back Series. The rates have been revised for two reasons: Methodological improvements to the matching process have been introduced. These improvements involve the introduction of new software and an updated matching protocol. The improvements have increased the reliability of the matching process but in the absence of a common identifier in the criminal justice system there will always be a degree of subjectivity associated with the matching process. |
Go to next chapter:Probation Recidivism Frequently Asked Questions
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