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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Retail Sales Index

September 2014 (Provisional) August 2014 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index-All Businesses
 (Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
September 201394.188.7
August 201499.692.2
September 201499.792.0
Monthly % change0.1-0.2
Annual % change5.93.8

Retail Sales Volume increased by 0.1% in September 2014

Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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The  volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 0.1% in September 2014 when compared with August 2014 and there was an increase of 5.9% in the annual figure. (See Table 1). If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 0.6% in the volume of retail sales in September 2014 when compared with August 2014 and there was an increase of 3.1% in the annual figure. (See Table 2).

The sectors with the largest month on month volume increases were Other Retail Sales (+14.7%), Hardware, Paints & Glass (+4.9%) and Fuel (+3.3%). The sectors with the largest monthly decreases were Furniture & Lighting (-3.7%), Books, Newspapers & Stationery (-2.5%) and Bars (-2.3%). (See Table 3).

There was a decrease of 0.2% in the value of retail sales in September 2014 when compared with August 2014 and there was an annual increase of 3.8% when compared with September 2013. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a monthly decrease of 1.1% in the value of retail sales and an annual increase of 1.0%.  

Business SectorsAnnualMonthly
All Businesses5.90.1
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades3.1-0.6
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars3.5-0.4
Motors & Fuel16.52.3
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars3.6-0.6
Food Businesses1.3-0.7
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & bars)6.4-0.1
Household Equipment9.2-0.4
Books, Newspapers Stationery & other Goods18.612.5
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2010Year 89.1-2.0-2.0 93.91.41.4
2011Year 88.5-0.7-0.7 93.1-0.9-0.9
2012Year 87.9-0.7-0.7 92.1-1.1-1.1
2013Year 87.7-0.2-0.2 92.70.70.7
          
20131st quarter85.6-3.7-1.6 90.1-3.4-1.3
 2nd quarter86.81.3-0.8 90.90.9-0.3
 3rd quarter 88.92.51.6 94.13.52.8
 4th quarter 88.90.10.0 94.80.81.7
        
20141st quarter 90.31.55.4 96.92.27.6
 2nd quarter 89.9-0.43.6 95.9-1.15.5
 3rd quarter2 93.23.74.8 100.64.96.9
          
2013April 86.41.2-1.4 90.91.2-0.5
 May 86.80.4-1.0 91.60.80.0
 June 87.00.2-0.1 90.3-1.5-0.4
 July 89.93.44.2 94.54.74.5
 August 88.1-2.00.7 93.6-0.92.3
 September 88.70.60.2 94.10.51.8
 October 88.5-0.1-2.2 94.0-0.1-1.1
 November 88.80.30.5 94.70.72.2
 December 89.40.71.6 95.61.03.5
        
2014January  90.71.47.2 97.41.99.3
 February 89.5-1.42.8 95.9-1.55.0
 March 90.61.36.1 97.41.68.5
 April 89.5-1.23.6 96.2-1.25.9
 May 90.00.53.7 96.90.85.8
 June 90.10.23.6 94.8-2.25.0
 July 95.66.06.3 102.88.48.8
 August 92.2-3.54.6 99.6-3.26.4
 September2 92.0-0.23.8 99.70.15.9
   
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2014    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers  
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2010Year 97.8-4.2-4.2 103.0-1.1-1.1
2011Year 96.0-1.8-1.8 100.3-2.6-2.6
2012Year 96.40.40.4 100.1-0.2-0.2
2013Year 96.3-0.1-0.1 100.90.80.8
          
20131st quarter95.9-1.10.5 99.4-1.30.5
 2nd quarter 95.3-0.6-0.1 99.50.10.5
 3rd quarter 96.00.8-0.3 100.50.90.7
 4th quarter 96.50.4-0.5 101.81.31.1
          
20141st quarter 96.60.20.8 102.20.42.8
 2nd quarter 97.50.92.4 103.71.44.2
 3rd quarter2 97.3-0.21.3 103.70.03.2
          
2013April 94.6-1.0-1.1 98.8-0.2-0.2
 May 95.81.4-0.9 99.81.10.1
 June 95.4-0.51.4 99.90.01.5
 July 96.81.51.7 100.70.81.4
 August 95.9-0.9-0.4 100.6-0.11.1
 September 95.5-0.4-1.7 100.2-0.4-0.2
 October 95.80.2-2.7 100.20.0-1.8
 November 96.30.5-0.1 101.51.31.6
 December 97.20.91.0 103.21.73.0
        
2014January 97.20.01.3 102.5-0.73.1
 February 96.9-0.30.7 102.50.02.7
 March 95.9-1.00.5 101.8-0.72.7
 April 97.51.63.1 103.71.95.0
 May 97.2-0.21.5 103.3-0.43.4
 June 97.70.52.5 103.90.64.1
 July 97.90.11.1 103.90.03.2
 August 97.6-0.31.7 103.90.13.3
 September2 96.5-1.11.0 103.3-0.63.1
   
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2014    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers  
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 September 2014
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 77.82.319.7 88.12.421.3
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 121.6-0.80.8 119.5-0.71.7
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 84.5-1.71.4 115.6-1.04.0
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco82.50.4-5.7 79.90.3-5.1
        
 Fuel111.03.3-0.9 79.53.32.3
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles95.10.7-2.4 104.10.5-1.2
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles81.3-2.1-1.9 119.3-1.80.1
        
 Furniture & Lighting58.4-4.313.4 91.9-3.719.1
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass78.34.35.3 84.14.96.6
        
 Electrical Goods77.5-2.62.4 161.8-2.08.0
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery63.3-1.50.4 55.4-2.5-1.5
        
 Other Retail Sales84.713.515.4 111.814.721.9
        
 Bars 74.0-2.40.3 63.5-2.3-2.2
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades96.5-1.11.0 103.3-0.63.1
        
 All Businesses 92.0-0.23.8 99.70.15.9
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars99.4-0.91.1 108.6-0.43.5
        
 Motors & Fuel83.61.111.8 85.22.316.5
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars98.6-0.91.4 111.5-0.63.6
        
 Food Businesses118.1-0.80.5 115.8-0.71.3
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)80.3-0.53.2 108.2-0.16.4
        
 Household Equipment73.8-0.55.1 118.6-0.49.2
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods80.010.212.4 100.812.518.6
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to Sempember 2014, individual series are independently adjusted  
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
   Base Year: 2005=100
 August 2014
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 76.1-5.222.6 86.0-6.024.5
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 122.6-0.21.4 120.3-0.32.3
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 85.92.62.0 116.71.64.2
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco82.1-2.6-3.9 79.6-2.6-3.1
        
 Fuel107.5-2.70.6 76.9-2.43.1
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles94.4-1.7-2.6 103.6-1.7-1.6
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles83.00.21.8 121.40.03.7
        
 Furniture & Lighting61.05.117.9 95.513.523.8
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass75.0-2.30.4 80.2-2.61.1
        
 Electrical Goods79.61.65.4 165.22.210.9
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.2-0.71.0 56.8-0.9-0.6
        
 Other Retail Sales74.60.20.6 97.40.15.0
        
 Bars 75.93.54.3 65.13.01.6
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades97.6-0.31.7 103.90.13.3
        
 All Businesses 92.2-3.54.6 99.6-3.26.4
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars100.3-0.41.5 109.0-0.43.4
        
 Motors & Fuel82.7-6.215.6 83.3-10.719.5
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars99.5-0.21.5 112.1-0.23.5
        
 Food Businesses119.1-0.41.1 116.6-0.42.0
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)80.70.82.0 108.30.65.2
        
 Household Equipment74.11.55.0 119.11.310.0
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods72.6-0.40.8 89.7-0.24.2
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2014, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 July 2014 - September 2014
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous periodAnnual % change  % change on previous periodAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 78.021.624.0 88.522.726.3
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 122.3-0.21.0 120.10.12.3
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 84.7-0.11.1 115.70.54.0
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco82.9-0.9-4.4 80.4-0.6-3.5
        
 Fuel109.8-2.2-0.3 78.5-1.42.6
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles95.1-0.9-2.9 104.4-0.9-1.6
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles82.3-1.10.4 120.6-0.62.8
        
 Furniture & Lighting59.10.815.9 90.6-1.418.9
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass76.82.41.7 82.32.62.9
        
 Electrical Goods78.40.35.7 162.81.911.3
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.02.6-0.4 56.42.5-2.1
        
 Other Retail Sales78.43.56.1 102.95.211.9
        
 Bars 74.41.81.1 63.91.2-1.4
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades97.3-0.21.3 103.70.03.2
        
 All Businesses 93.23.74.8 100.64.96.9
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars100.1-0.61.3 109.00.13.6
        
 Motors & Fuel84.711.715.8 87.117.420.9
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars99.3-0.31.4 111.90.03.6
        
 Food Businesses118.9-0.51.0 116.5-0.21.9
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)80.3-0.12.1 108.00.55.7
        
 Household Equipment73.60.84.7 118.42.49.7
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods75.63.55.1 94.04.69.9
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2014, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The August 2014 period covers the 4 weeks from 27/07/14 to 23/08/14 and the September 2014 period covers the 5 weeks from 24/08/14 to 27/09/14.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2000 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as:

  • Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter,
  • The phase shift effect, i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month and
  • Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series.
     
    Note: Athough each series is independently adjusted, no changes were made to the Motor Trade series Seasonal Adjustment model to take account of the introduction of the new car registration system in Ireland in 2013.  This is due to a lack of historical data or comparable models that would be required to inform the Seasonal Adjustment model. Once a seasonal pattern has been established we will be in a position to review the Motor Trade Seasonal Ajustment model.
     
    Also to note, the Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 45% of turnover.

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and  www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/services/retailsalesindexsurveys/retailsalesindex/ Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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