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CSO statistical release, 28 February 2013, 11am

Retail Sales Index

January 2013 (Provisional) December 2012 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index-All Businesses
(Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
January 201291.887.6
December 201292.388.2
January 201390.786.7
   
Monthly % change-1.7%-1.7%
Annual % change-1.2%-1.0%

Retail Sales Volume decreased 1.7% in January 2013

The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 1.7% in January 2013 when compared with December 2012 while there was an annual decrease of 1.2%.  If Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.4% in January 2013 when compared with December 2012 and there was an annual increase of 0.7%.

 

The sectors which showed month on month volume increases are Furniture & Lighting (+6.6%), Fuel (+1.6%) and Non Specalised Stores (+0.2%). The sectors with the largest monthly decreases were Department Stores (-15.1%) Bars (-8.1%) and Motor Trades (-3.6%).

The value of retail sales decreased by 1.7% in January 2013 when compared with December 2012 and there was an annual decrease of 1.0%.  If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease in the value of retail sales in January 2013 of 0.5% and an annual increase of 0.9%.  

Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales1
        BaseYear: 2005=100
          
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
          
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2008Year 110.8-4.5-4.5 107.4-6.0-6.0
2009Year 90.9-18.0-18.0 92.6-13.8-13.8
2010Year 89.1-2.0-2.0 93.91.41.4
2011Year 88.5-0.7-0.7 93.1-0.9-0.9
2012Year 87.9-0.6-0.6 92.1-1.1-1.1
          
          
20111st quarter 88.2-0.10.9 92.6-0.51.2
 2nd quarter 88.90.8-1.1 93.81.3-1.4
 3rd quarter 87.3-1.8-2.6 91.8-2.1-3.0
 4th quarter 88.21.0-0.1 92.71.0-0.4
          
20121st quarter 87.6-0.7-0.7 91.6-1.2-1.1
 2nd quarter 86.3-1.5-2.9 90.6-1.1-3.4
 3rd quarter 87.81.70.6 91.81.30.0
 4th quarter 88.81.10.7 93.01.30.4
          
          
2011August 87.3-1.0-3.2 92.1-0.2-3.3
 September 86.5-0.9-3.5 91.1-1.2-3.8
 October 87.10.7-3.1 91.70.7-3.5
 November 88.41.5-0.5 92.81.2-1.1
 December 89.00.72.6 93.30.52.5
         
2012January 87.6-1.5-0.2 91.8-1.6-0.7
 February 87.3-0.3-1.6 91.5-0.3-1.7
 March 87.80.6-0.4 91.60.1-0.9
 April 87.2-0.7-1.2 90.8-0.9-1.8
 May 87.30.1-1.3 91.00.3-1.8
 June 84.9-2.7-5.5 90.0-1.1-5.9
 July 87.22.7-1.2 91.21.3-1.2
 August 87.70.50.4 91.60.4-0.6
 September 88.40.92.2 92.40.91.4
 October 90.11.93.4 94.62.43.1
 November 88.3-2.0-0.2 92.4-2.2-0.4
 December 88.2-0.1-0.9 92.3-0.2-1.1
          
2013January2 86.7-1.7-1.0 90.7-1.7-1.2
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2013     
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers  
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
          
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
          
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2008Year 114.9-0.8-0.8 111.5-2.5-2.5
2009Year 102.1-11.1-11.1 104.1-6.6-6.6
2010Year 97.8-4.2-4.2 103.0-1.1-1.1
2011Year 96.0-1.8-1.8 100.3-2.6-2.6
2012Year 96.40.40.4 100.1-0.2-0.2
          
          
20111st quarter 96.80.9-2.0 100.90.2-2.7
 2nd quarter 95.4-1.4-3.0 99.8-1.1-3.9
 3rd quarter 94.9-0.5-2.2 99.1-0.7-3.1
 4th quarter 95.50.6-0.4 99.60.5-1.1
          
20121st quarter 95.50.0-1.3 98.8-0.8-2.1
 2nd quarter 95.1-0.4-0.3 98.7-0.1-1.1
 3rd quarter 96.21.21.4 99.71.00.6
 4th quarter 97.21.01.8 101.11.41.5
          
          
2011August 94.7-1.1-2.8 99.1-0.6-3.6
 September 94.5-0.2-2.4 98.6-0.4-3.4
 October 94.2-0.3-2.7 98.0-0.6-3.6
 November 96.22.10.1 100.22.2-1.0
 December 95.9-0.30.9 100.30.10.6
         
2012January 95.7-0.1-2.0 99.1-1.1-2.9
 February 94.9-0.9-1.6 98.4-0.7-2.0
 March 95.81.0-0.5 99.00.6-1.3
 April 95.3-0.6-1.1 98.4-0.6-2.0
 May 96.41.21.8 99.71.31.1
 June 93.8-2.7-1.5 98.2-1.5-2.0
 July 95.61.8-0.1 99.41.2-0.2
 August 96.10.61.5 99.40.00.3
 September 96.70.62.3 100.10.71.5
 October 97.81.23.9 101.41.33.4
 November 96.7-1.20.6 100.5-0.90.4
 December 97.10.41.2 101.30.81.0
          
2013January2 96.6-0.50.9 99.8-1.40.7
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2013    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers  
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 January 2013
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
      
  % change on previous monthAnnual % change  % change on previous monthAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 56.3-3.7-9.4 61.8-3.6-8.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 120.80.62.7 117.00.21.3
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 79.9-16.83.3 103.8-15.14.3
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco85.7-0.8-1.1 82.8-0.9-3.3
        
 Fuel112.00.71.4 75.71.6-1.3
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.4-1.6-2.1 111.4-2.6-3.7
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles81.7-0.81.1 113.50.02.5
        
 Furniture and Lighting51.75.8-1.9 73.96.64.1
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass73.0-4.10.6 76.2-3.90.7
        
 Electrical Goods76.6-3.17.5 144.7-2.313.4
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery66.2-1.9-5.7 60.0-2.9-6.6
        
 Other Retail Sales71.3-1.8-5.5 86.6-0.4-1.9
        
 Bars 71.1-7.9-4.2 63.4-8.1-6.9
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades96.6-0.50.9 99.8-1.40.7
        
All Businesses 86.7-1.7-1.0 90.7-1.7-1.2
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars99.5-0.11.4 104.4-1.11.4
        
 Motors & Fuel67.6-3.0-6.2 64.5-1.4-7.4
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars98.0-0.41.4 106.9-1.01.6
        
 Food Businesses117.70.52.6 113.90.11.0
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)78.6-2.50.2 99.7-2.32.7
        
Household Equipment70.9-2.33.3 106.1-1.58.5
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods70.6-1.4-5.4 81.0-2.0-2.9
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2013, individual series are independently adjusted  
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
   Base Year: 2005=100
 December 2012
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
      
  % change on previous monthAnnual % change  % change on previous monthAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 58.4-1.8-23.3 64.1-1.7-23.1
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 120.10.42.3 116.70.30.8
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 96.07.56.8 122.35.16.6
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco86.50.13.0 83.6-0.21.9
        
 Fuel111.2-0.32.5 74.5-0.1-3.0
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles103.01.42.8 114.42.24.3
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles82.3-0.1-3.8 113.5-0.5-2.3
        
 Furniture and Lighting48.9-1.9-6.8 69.3-1.5-2.2
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass76.22.12.2 79.31.91.8
        
 Electrical Goods79.1-0.9-0.8 148.0-0.94.6
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery67.42.2-2.5 61.83.9-2.5
        
 Other Retail Sales72.6-4.1-6.0 86.9-2.9-3.7
        
 Bars 77.14.83.8 69.03.60.9
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades97.10.41.2 101.30.81.0
        
All Businesses 88.2-0.1-0.9 92.3-0.2-1.1
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars99.60.21.0 105.50.51.1
        
 Motors & Fuel69.7-1.3-12.4 65.4-2.0-15.7
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars98.4-0.10.9 108.10.41.1
        
 Food Businesses117.20.52.3 113.80.41.1
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)80.60.0-0.8 102.10.11.2
        
Household Equipment72.61.1-1.1 107.71.42.6
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods71.6-2.6-5.1 82.6-2.4-3.4
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2013, individual series are independently adjusted
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 November 2012 - January 2013
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
      
  % change on previous monthAnnual % change  % change on previous monthAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 58.1-1.2-13.8 63.7-1.1-13.6
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 120.20.32.4 116.70.01.0
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 89.02.56.5 114.82.06.8
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco86.2-0.80.3 83.4-1.4-1.0
        
 Fuel111.6-2.71.9 74.9-0.5-3.4
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles102.10.30.7 112.70.61.1
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles82.10.0-1.6 113.70.6-0.2
        
 Furniture and Lighting50.00.4-6.0 71.01.9-1.1
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass74.70.70.4 77.90.80.4
        
 Electrical Goods78.5-5.63.8 147.4-4.39.8
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery66.61.5-4.9 60.52.7-5.6
        
 Other Retail Sales73.2-4.9-5.9 87.6-3.0-3.6
        
 Bars 74.21.20.3 66.5-0.2-2.2
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades96.8-0.10.9 100.60.30.7
        
All Businesses 87.8-1.0-0.7 91.8-1.1-1.0
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars99.5-0.61.0 105.00.11.1
        
 Motors & Fuel69.3-2.1-7.6 65.5-1.8-10.0
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars98.3-0.30.9 107.6-0.11.2
        
 Food Businesses117.20.22.3 113.7-0.10.9
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)80.0-1.1-0.6 101.3-0.51.7
        
Household Equipment71.8-1.00.8 106.7-1.25.4
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods71.9-4.1-5.9 82.8-2.1-4.1
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to January 2013, individual series are independently adjusted
Table 6
Volume of retail trade in the euro-zone, the EU27 and member states1
annual % change compared with the same month of the previous year
       
 Jul-12Aug-12Sept-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-122
       
Austria-1.70.5-2.1-1.6-0.7-1.5
Belgium-3.0-0.93.60.83.9-2.2
Finland0.20.30.5-1.20.91.6
France4.02.30.81.31.22.2
Germany-1.2-0.9-0.7-2.1-0.5-4.7
Greece-9.2-9.3-11.9-18.1-16.8*
Ireland0.80.61.64.30.51.1
Italy-2.8-2.6-0.5-5.2-3.1*
Luxembourg10.411.99.49.60.6-3.7
Netherlands-2.6-3.50.4-3.6-5.4*
Portugal-7.5-5.8-6.3-6.1-5.5-8.6
Slovenia-1.7-0.7-4.4-6.2-5.9-7.5
Slovakia-2.0-0.9-1.7-1.8-2.2-4.0
Spain-7.4-1.9-12.8-11.5-9.7-12.3
Cyprus-6.7-2.4-2.6-5.1-3.1*
Malta-0.33.42.8-2.3-0.71.0
EA17-1.3-0.7-1.7-2.9-1.9-3.4
Denmark-1.6-3.7-0.6-3.3-1.1-0.8
Sweden2.61.43.91.30.72.4
United Kingdom3.94.23.82.12.21.9
Czech Republic-1.30.90.2-1.5-2.4*
Estonia6.97.110.16.64.47.2
Latvia10.39.69.39.07.612.5
Lithuania6.22.92.44.12.32.7
Hungary-2.5-2.4-3.1-3.7-4.2*
Poland2.2-1.1-2.6-4.4-2.7-0.7
Bulgaria1.60.7-3.1-4.3-5.2-5.5
Romania3.65.05.20.13.0-3.3
EU270.00.3-0.4-1.9-1.0-2.0
Norway3.91.73.21.21.92.5
Switzerland2.96.05.02.72.9..
.. Data not available,
1 Data NACE 47 All Business excluding Motor Trades & Bars  
2 Data for Ireland is December 2012 final data
* Confidential
Source: Eurostat
 
Monthly % change data available on Eurostat website.
http..//epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/euroindicators/peeis/

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The December period covers the 5 weeks from 25/11/12 to 29/12/12 and the January 2013 period covers the 4 weeks from 30/12/12 to 26/01/13.

New Base Year

The set of new monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses   with   sizeable   retailing   activity   and   the   separate   sales   establishments   of non-distribution enterprises.  Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The  business  categories  are  based  mainly  on  the  Statistical  Classification  of  Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2).  The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year.  The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series.  Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2000 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as:

  • Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter,
  • The phase shift effect, i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month and
  • Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series.

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and  www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  www.cso.ie

Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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