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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, 27 January 2017, 11am

Retail Sales Index

December 2016 (Provisional) November 2016 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index - All Businesses
 (Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
December 2015110.097.5
November 2016114.599.2
December 2016113.798.6
Monthly % change-0.7-0.6
Annual % change3.41.2

Retail Sales Volume decreased by 0.7% in December 2016

Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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Seasonally adjusted, the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.7% in the month of December, with an annual increase of 3.4%. (See Table 1). If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 2.7% in the volume of retail sales in December 2016 when compared with November 2016 and there was an increase of 2.0% in the annual figure. (See Table 2).

The sectors with the largest monthly volume decreases were Electrical goods (-22.7%), Hardware, Paints & Glass (-4.1%) and Fuel (-2.4). (See Table 3).  The sector with the largest month on month volume increase was Non-Specialised Stores (+0.9%).

There was a decrease of 0.6% in the value of retail sales in December 2016 when compared with November 2016 and there was an annual increase of 1.2% when compared with December 2015. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 1.6% in the value of retail sales and an annual increase of 0.2%.

Provisional estimates for the year 2016 show that the volume of Retail Sales increased by 5.9% in 2016 when compared to 2015 and by 3.8% in value terms.  If Motor Trades are excluded, there was an increase of 4.3% in the volume of retail sales and an increase of 2.1% in the value.

Unadjusted indices are available on CSO Statbank.

notepa
Business SectorsAnnualMonthly
All Businesses3.4-0.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades2-2.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars2.1-2.7
Motors & Fuel6.9-1
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars2.4-2.2
Food Businesses1.50.6
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)3.3-4.6
Household Equipment3.9-9.6
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods2.6-1.2
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2013Year 87.7-0.2-0.2 92.70.70.7
2014Year 91.34.14.1 98.66.46.4
2015Year 95.84.94.9 106.78.28.2
2016Year2 99.43.83.8 113.05.95.9
       
          
20151st quarter 94.61.85.2 104.42.88.7
 2nd quarter 94.70.15.1 103.8-0.68.0
 3rd quarter 97.12.65.3 109.35.39.0
 4th quarter 97.0-0.14.4 109.30.07.6
          
20161st quarter 100.63.76.3 113.13.58.3
 2nd quarter 98.1-2.53.6 110.0-2.86.0
 3rd quarter 100.12.13.1 114.94.55.2
 4th quarter2 98.7-1.51.7 113.6-1.23.9
          
2015July 97.95.46.3 110.911.110.1
 August 96.7-1.25.0 108.3-2.48.8
 September 96.80.14.7 108.80.58.4
 October 96.0-0.83.7 108.0-0.77.1
 November 97.41.45.7 109.81.69.2
 December 97.50.14.0 110.00.26.7
        
2016January 102.45.19.3 113.53.210.6
 February 101.1-1.38.4 114.50.910.7
 March 98.6-2.42.5 111.8-2.44.7
 April 99.10.52.5 112.80.95.2
 May 99.80.75.0 113.40.67.7
 June 95.9-3.93.3 105.0-7.45.2
 July 103.37.75.5 119.613.97.8
 August 98.9-4.32.2 113.0-5.54.3
 September 98.5-0.41.7 112.8-0.23.7
 October 98.1-0.42.1 112.5-0.34.1
 November 99.21.11.8 114.51.84.3
 December2 98.6-0.61.2 113.7-0.73.4
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2016    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2013Year 96.3-0.1-0.1 100.90.80.8
2014Year 97.81.61.6 104.63.73.7
2015Year 100.42.72.7 111.06.16.1
2016Year2 102.52.12.1 115.84.34.3
       
          
20151st quarter 98.00.01.1 107.31.04.9
 2nd quarter 100.32.33.1 109.92.56.3
 3rd quarter 100.50.33.3 111.51.47.1
 4th quarter 101.20.63.2 113.01.46.4
          
20161st quarter 102.10.94.1 114.10.96.4
 2nd quarter 102.60.52.3 115.21.04.8
 3rd quarter 101.9-0.71.3 115.1-0.13.3
 4th quarter2 102.30.41.1 116.81.43.3
          
          
2015July 100.70.93.2 111.01.46.6
 August 100.6-0.13.1 111.30.36.9
 September 100.4-0.23.7 111.90.57.7
 October 100.1-0.32.0 111.4-0.55.5
 November 101.81.74.7 114.02.38.6
 December 101.6-0.22.9 113.6-0.45.4
          
2016January 102.20.74.6 113.80.26.4
 February 102.30.04.5 114.40.66.7
 March 101.8-0.53.5 114.1-0.36.0
 April 102.00.20.8 114.50.43.1
 May 103.81.83.7 116.21.46.2
 June 102.2-1.52.5 114.9-1.14.9
 July 102.0-0.31.3 114.6-0.33.2
 August 101.7-0.31.1 114.80.23.1
 September 101.90.21.5 115.80.83.4
 October 101.90.01.8 115.6-0.23.8
 November 103.41.51.5 119.03.04.4
 December2 101.7-1.60.2 115.9-2.72.0
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2016
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Provisional Results December 2016
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 December 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades387.8-1.17.4 103.7-0.99.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 129.40.70.6 130.80.91.9
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 91.5-2.3-3.2 132.9-2.20.1
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco84.1-1.1-4.1 84.4-1.1-2.5
        
 Fuel100.1-2.21.3 80.7-2.40.2
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.1-0.7-0.1 118.0-0.71.4
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles90.4-1.31.9 142.8-0.55.8
        
 Furniture and Lighting71.4-2.03.1 127.0-1.69.3
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass79.6-4.4-1.0 90.0-4.12.1
        
 Electrical Goods75.0-22.7-4.2 175.4-22.72.4
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery63.2-0.6-3.7 54.3-1.0-4.1
        
 Other Retail Sales80.3-1.4-0.5 121.8-1.63.4
        
 Bars 82.0-0.23.0 70.2-0.42.1
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades101.7-1.60.2 115.9-2.72.0
        
All Businesses 98.6-0.61.2 113.7-0.73.4
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars104.5-1.2-0.1 122.0-2.72.1
        
 Motors & Fuel89.3-1.36.0 97.4-1.06.9
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars104.9-1.0-0.1 126.1-2.22.4
        
 Food Businesses125.40.50.3 126.40.61.5
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)85.0-3.8-0.5 124.9-4.63.3
        
Household Equipment76.4-8.7-1.4 135.3-9.63.9
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods77.6-0.1-1.0 110.0-1.22.6
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Final Results November 2016
   Base Year: 2005=100
 November 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades388.8-0.84.4 104.6-0.76.2
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 128.5-0.3-0.2 129.60.11.0
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 93.7-0.0-0.9 135.90.21.4
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco85.11.22.1 85.31.43.6
        
 Fuel102.32.66.6 82.70.86.1
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.80.71.4 118.82.03.9
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles91.51.25.9 143.51.79.0
        
 Furniture and Lighting72.83.06.7 129.13.513.3
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass83.22.46.2 93.82.89.3
        
 Electrical Goods97.116.46.1 226.816.913.4
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery63.50.1-2.4 54.80.7-2.1
        
 Other Retail Sales81.54.31.2 123.83.36.9
        
 Bars 82.2-1.72.9 70.4-1.02.1
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades103.41.51.5 119.03.04.4
        
All Businesses 99.21.11.8 114.51.84.3
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars105.71.21.2 125.43.44.6
        
 Motors & Fuel90.40.74.8 98.40.35.7
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars106.00.90.9 128.93.14.3
        
 Food Businesses124.8-0.0-0.1 125.70.11.1
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)88.42.92.5 130.83.76.9
        
Household Equipment83.74.65.4 149.66.011.6
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods77.73.00.1 111.43.76.0
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - 3 Monthly Provisional Estimates
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 October 2016 - December 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous periodAnnual % change  % change on previous periodAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades388.6-4.15.5 104.4-3.67.5
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 128.9-0.50.5 130.0-0.01.7
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 92.81.90.0 134.73.12.7
        
 Food beverages & Tobacco84.40.6-0.4 84.61.31.1
        
 Fuel100.73.13.9 81.70.23.5
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.40.51.0 117.72.82.8
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles90.70.62.4 142.52.45.7
        
 Furniture and Lighting71.61.74.0 127.04.110.2
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass81.21.02.8 91.52.05.8
        
 Electrical Goods84.4-0.40.8 196.91.27.7
        
 Books, Newspapers and Stationery63.4-1.1-2.8 54.5-1.3-3.1
        
 Other Retail Sales80.03.70.2 121.84.35.4
        
 Bars 82.60.43.5 70.50.32.6
        
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades102.30.41.1 116.81.43.3
        
All Businesses 98.7-1.51.7 113.6-1.23.9
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars104.90.30.8 122.81.53.4
        
 Motors & Fuel89.8-3.25.2 97.9-6.56.2
        
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars105.3-0.10.6 126.61.33.4
        
 Food Businesses125.0-0.50.5 126.0-0.01.6
        
 Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)86.31.21.1 127.12.65.1
        
Household Equipment79.8-0.31.9 141.50.87.5
        
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods77.02.4-0.5 109.64.24.5
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis, allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The November 2016 period covers the 4 weeks from 30/10/16 to 26/11/16, and the December 2016 period covers the 5 weeks from 27/11/16 to 31/12/16.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity, and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls, and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges. The following NACE Rev.2 categories apply:

  • Motor Trades - Sale, maintenance and repair of new and second-hand vehicles and motorcycles (NACE 45)
  • Non-Specialised Stores - Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating - mainly supermarkets (NACE 47.11)
  • Department Stores -  Retail sale of a large variety of goods of which food products, beverages or tobacco are not predominant activities of the department stores. Retail sale of a general line of merchandise, including wearing apparel, furniture, appliances, hardware, cosmetics, jewellery, toys, sports goods, etc. (NACE 47.19)
  • Food, Beverages & Tobacco -  Retail sale of fruit and vegetables, meat and meat products, fish, crustaceans and molluscs, bread, cakes, flour and sugar confectionery, and beverages in specialised stores (NACE 47.2)
  • Fuel - Retail sale of fuel and lubricating products and cooling products for motor vehicles and motorcycles. Excludes wholesale of fuels (NACE 47.3)
  • Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles - Retail sale of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.73 - 75)
  • Clothing, Footwear & Textiles – Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.51, 47.71 – 72)
  • Furniture & Lighting - Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.59)
  • Hardware, Paints & Glass - Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores (NACE 47.52)
  • Electrical Goods – Retail sale of information and communication equipment, computers, peripheral units and software, telecommunications equipment, audio and video equipment and electrical household appliances in specialised stores (NACE 47.41-43, 47.54)
  • Books, Newspapers & Stationery – Retail sale of books excluding second-hand or antique books, retail sale of office supplies such as pens, pencils, paper, etc. (NACE 47.61 -.62)
  • Other Retail Sales – Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings, music and video recordings, games and toys, flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food, jewellery, and other new goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.53, 47.63-65, 47.76-8)
  • Bars – Preparation and serving of beverages for immediate consumption on the premises (NACE 56.3)

 For a full NACE Rev2 breakdown of the above categories see attached link:

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/surveysandmethodologies/surveys/services/documents/pdfdocs/Retail_sales_nace_rev2_descriptions.pdf

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2005 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, such as:

  • Calendar effects e.g. the timing of Easter
  • The phase shift effect i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month
  • Outliers, temporary changes, and level shifts in the series
     
    Note: Athough each series is independently adjusted, no changes were made to the Motor Trade series Seasonal Adjustment model to take account of the introduction of the new car registration system in Ireland in 2013.  This is due to a lack of historical data or comparable models that would be required to inform the Seasonal Adjustment model. Once a seasonal pattern has been established we will be in a position to review the Motor Trade Seasonal Adjustment model.
     
    Note: The Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 45% of turnover.

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/services/retailsalesindexsurveys/retailsalesindex/ Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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