Trends in turnout in electoral contests in Ireland over the last two decades show an increasing level of voter abstention. Over a period of four general elections (1969, 1973, 1977 and 1981), turnout was at 76 to 77 per cent steady state. Since 1981, however, all the movement that has taken place has been downwards, culminating in the most recent turnout of 65.9 per cent in the 1997 general election. With the exception of Switzerland, turnout in general elections in Ireland is now the lowest in Western Europe. (It is likely that there is some redundancy in the electoral register, and this may have a limited effect on the estimation of the absolute levels of turnout; there is no evidence, however, that this has any effect on estimates of change in turnout over time.)
The downward trend is not confined to general elections. Local election turnout has fallen from 69.0 per cent in 1969 to 49.5% in 1999. It is more difficult to speak of trends in turnout in presidential and European elections because of the relative scarcity of presidential elections and, in the case of European elections, because of the concurrence of other elections. However, the most striking development in presidential election turnout is the very substantial decline in 1997 (46.8%). In three out of the five European Parliament elections, turnout was determined (and boosted) by concurrent elections: by local elections in 1979 and 1999 and by a general election in 1989. Leaving these three aside, it is apparent that the average level of turnout in European Parliament elections as such is in the mid-forties and that the trend conforms to the general pattern of turnout decline: in the two stand-alone EP elections, turnout fell from 47.6 in 1984 to 44.0 per cent in 1994.
Because referendums differ so much from one another depending on the issue to be decided, it is difficult to identify precise trends in turnout across referendums. However, leaving aside the referendums that have taken place on the same day as an election of some sort, it is noteworthy that turnout in the 1998 Northern Ireland Agreement referendum was only 56.2 per cent – a level that is surprisingly low given the historical significance of the issues to be decided and the fact that it was accompanied by the referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty – while turnout in the 2001 Nice Treaty referendum was just 34.8 per cent.
Use of the QNHS
For both political and social reasons, there is a growing demand in Ireland for information which would help to understand the causes of voter abstention. For obvious reasons, statistical surveys are one of the major ways of acquiring such information. Because of the need to identify the precise social and demographic factors associated with abstention, and in particular to investigate the extent to which it may be associated with other forms of social exclusion, the larger the survey sample size, the better. In this regard, the Quarterly National Household Survey, which has a very large sample size (approx. 39,000 households), provides the best opportunity to analyse the nature and causes of electoral abstention.
PERMVOTE |
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Can I ask you some questions relating to voter registration, arrangements for voting and voter participation? 1. Yes |
DIDUVOTE |
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As you may know, for one reason or another, many people did not vote in the general election last May. How about you? Did you vote? 1. Yes |
WHYNOTVO |
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What were the main reasons why you did not vote in the recent general election? |
WHYNOTV1 |
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01. Not interested in politics 02. Disillusioned with politics 03. Did not understand the issues / could not make a choice / too little information 04. My vote would not make any difference 05. Illness/disability 06. Away from home / away working, could not go home / away on holidays 07. No time / work commitments / family commitments / leisure commitments 08. Not registered to vote / Registered at a different address 09. No polling card / lost card 10. Lack of transport. 11. Other |
WHEN_NOT |
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Can you recall when it became clear to you that you would not vote? 1. On voting day |
ELEC_REG |
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As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is the official list of people entitled to vote, either at this address or somewhere else? 1. Yes |
WHER_REG |
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Are you registered at this address, or at some other address in this county or in another county? 1. This address |
WHYNOTRE |
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There are many reasons why an individual may not be registered to vote. Could you please tell me which reason best fits your situation? 1. I just never got around to registering |
NATNEWS |
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I am now going to ask you some questions regarding politics and current affairs. 1. Everyday |
LOCNEWS |
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Can you tell me how often you read about politics/current affairs in a local newspaper? 1. Everyday |
TELEVIS |
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How often do you watch politics/current affairs programmes on television? 1. Everyday |
NATRADIO |
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How often do you listen to politics/current affairs programmes on national radio? 1. Everyday |
LOCRADIO |
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And how often do you listen to politics/current affairs programmes on local radio? 1. Everyday |
DEMOCRAC |
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On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy* works in the Republic of Ireland? 1. Very satisfied |
VOTEHIST |
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Thinking about all types of elections - local, Dáil, presidential and European – that have been held since you became eligible to vote, would you say that you: 1. Voted in all or most of them |
MATTER_P |
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Now thinking about general elections, how much do you think it matters which particular parties win more seats and which win fewer seats in a general election? 1. Matters a great deal |
MATTER_C |
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Now thinking about candidates rather than parties. How much do you think it matters which particular candidates win seats in a general election? 1. Matters a great deal |
ENJOY |
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I am now going to ask you to respond to seven statements relating to general Voting issues. In responding to these please say whether you strongly disagree, disagree, neither agree nor disagree, agree, or strongly agree with each of the following statements. I enjoy watching / listening to the results of the election on TV / Radio 1. Strongly Disagree |
VIEWS |
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I think of myself as having definite views on political issues 1. Strongly Disagree |
PUB_REPS |
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Public representatives do not care about the opinions of ordinary people 1. Strongly Disagree |
DUTY |
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Everyone has a duty to vote 1. Strongly Disagree |
ISSUES |
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I feel that I have a pretty good understanding of the important political issues facing the country 1. Strongly Disagree |
HONESTY |
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In general, I think politicians are honest 1. Strongly Disagree |
FAMILY |
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Most of my family and friends vote 1. Strongly Disagree |
ACTIVE |
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Over the past few years, have you been active in any way in a voluntary group or organization like a charity or a sports club, or a local community group, or a political or religious group or organization? To what extent is that? 1. Very active |
TIME_DID |
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When you went to vote in the election in May, could you please tell me approximately how much time it took you to get to the polling station? 1. Time in minutes |
TRAVEL_1 |
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In going to the polling station did you walk, travel by bicycle, use your own car, get a lift in someone else’s car or take a bus / train? 1. Walk |
TIMEWOUL |
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If you had voted in the recent general election, approximately how much time do you think it would have taken you to get to the polling station? 1. Record time in minutes. Accept a broad estimate if necessary. |
TIMEWOU1 |
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IF TIMEWOUL IS BLANK, THEN CODE THE TIMEWOUL RESPONSE TO ONE OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS 1. Don’t know how much time it would have taken |
TRAVEL_2 |
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If you were going to the polling station would you normally walk, travel by bicycle, use your own car, get a lift in someone else’s car, or take a bus / train? 1. Walk |
DAY_VOTE |
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There has been some discussion regarding the day on which elections should be held. Given your circumstances, which day would be more convenient for you? 1. Weekdays |
CAMPAIGN |
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In an election, the parties and candidates campaign for votes. Thinking about the election last May, did their campaigns come to your attention in any of the following ways? 1. A candidate/party canvasser called to my home |
PER_PART |
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In closing, may I ask you some questions regarding the extent to which you may or may not feel close to any particular political party? I won’t be asking you about which party that might be. 1. Yes |
CLOSE |
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Do you consider yourself to be close to any particular party? 1. Yes |
HOWCLOSE |
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Do you consider yourself to be very close to this party, somewhat close, or not very close? 1. Very close |
BITCLOSE |
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Do you consider yourself to be a little closer to one of the political parties than to the others? 1. Yes |
LASTQNVO |
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Press any key to end module... |
Note: The purpose of this “question” is to allow the time of the end of the module to be recorded.